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Good Society > Published by Shamik Das, February 3rd 2010 at 11:16 am

Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats

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Chris Grayling’s attack on the British Crime Survey (BCS), which he described as “fundamentally flawed” on the Today programme this morning, is unravelling fast. Living up to his reputation as the weak link in the Tory line-up, he claimed there had been a “98 PER CENT INCREASE in serious violent crime” – the true figure, as the BBC’s Mark Easton reminded him, is a “50 PER CENT FALL in violent crime since 1995″.

Murder-manslaughter-downHe also claimed the BCS “didn’t take account of crimes committed by people under the age of 16″ – again, the Shadow Home Secretary is simply wrong.

Not only were crimes committed by under-16s against adults already included in the survey, but from last January – January 2009 – the experiences of under-16s were included as well.

Grayling also said a major flaw of the survey was that it didn’t include murder or manslaughter. Using the figures which do include those crimes, however, reveals a downward trend – a fact Grayling failed to mention, claiming that “since the start of the decade there have been steady year-by-year increases in violent crime”.

As Left Foot Forward reported last month, the “Home Office Statistical Bulletin: Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence 2008/09″ shows a 14 per cent fall in homicides year-on-year, from 753 to 651 – the lowest level for ten years – with shooting homicides down 26 per cent since 2007/8 from 53 to 39.

• Listen to Grayling’s interview and read the transcript.

UPDATE 12:30

Andrew Pakes, Labour PPC for Milton Keynes North, has told Left Foot Forward that the Tories’ false claims that there had been 6,000 violent attacks in Milton Keynes in 2008/09 – a 236 per cent increase, equivalent to a violent attack every 90 mins – were a “disgraceful attempt” to play politics with crime.

He said:

“It is incredible to see just how far the Tories are prepared to go in manipulating the figures for their own partisan gain. No wonder the local police and BBC felt the need to speak out on this issue and make clear that the Tories were misleading the public.

“I am really proud of the work done by our local police and their dedication to helping make our city a safer place to live. This is a disgraceful attempt to play party politics with crime and the fear of anti-social behaviour. The Tories should start standing up our city and not simply spinning for his party bosses in London.”

  • http://twitter.com/jesus_john/status/8583944638 John West

    RT @leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb

  • http://twitter.com/thedancingflea/status/8583889626 Claire Spencer

    …and @shamikdas has also covered it for @leftfootfwd: http://bit.ly/bMj8vp Letting Osborne and Grayling speak on consecutive days, tsk.

  • http://www.ubervu.com/conversations/www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/weak-link-grayling-wrong-on-the-facts-wrong-on-the-stats/ uberVU – social comments

    Social comments and analytics for this post…

    This post was mentioned on Twitter by leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb...

  • http://twitter.com/markhanson/status/8584084424 MarkHanson

    RT @leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb

  • http://twitter.com/benfurber/status/8584464185 Ben Furber

    Weak link Grayling (as ever): Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats. http://bit.ly/cOw88o

  • http://twitter.com/houseoftwits/status/8584511590 House Of Twits

    RT @benfurber Weak link Grayling (as ever): Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats. http://bit.ly/cOw88o

  • http://twitter.com/patrickwoodman/status/8584586563 Patrick Woodman

    RT @leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb

  • http://twitter.com/stevember/status/8584594568 Stevie Webb

    RT @houseoftwits: RT @benfurber Weak link Grayling (as ever): Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats. http://bit.ly/cOw88o

  • http://twitter.com/kopmatt09/status/8584598355 Matt

    RT @leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb

  • http://twitter.com/kopmatt09/status/8584604643 Matt

    RT @leftfootfwd: Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats: http://is.gd/7BQjb #PMQs

  • http://www.timworstall.com Tim Worstall

    “a 14 per cent fall in homicides year-on-year, from 753 to 651 – the lowest level for ten years – with shooting homicides down 26 per cent since 2007/8 from 53 to 39.”

    Erm, yes, and? Medical treatment for traumatic injuries has got better recently. So?

    Have you not seen all those reports about how the ratio of dead to injured in hte armed forces has changed radically over the past few years?

  • http://www.shamik.co.uk Shamik Das

    Tim, I think it’s a good thing that the number of homicides is down 14 per cent, to its lowest level since 1998/99.

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/politics-summary-thursday-february-4th/ Politics Summary: Thursday, February 4th | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Home Office caveats about use of crime statistics”. Yesterday, Left Foot Forward reported further inaccuracies in Grayling’s claims, namely his claim under-16s weren’t included [...]

  • Liz McShane

    Chris Grayling might also want to study this report carefully before he makes any more utterances – ‘Child killing rate ‘drops by 40%’ in England and Wales”:

    news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8497277.stm

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/politics-summary-friday-february-5th/ Politics Summary: Friday, February 5th | Left Foot Forward

    [...] sent a draft letter to send to their Tory opponent, asking for an undertaking not to use “bogus statistics” in the coming [...]

  • Mr. Sensible

    Ah! I’ve just been reminded by the Independent Website that this is the same Grayling who made that comment comparing some of our towns and cities to ‘The Wire.’
    Nice to see he continued where he left off.

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/more-misuse-of-tory-crime-stats/ More misuse of Tory crime stats | Left Foot Forward

    [...] this week, Left Foot Forward reported Grayling’s ignorance on the inclusion of under-16s in the British Crime Survey, following the [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/look-left-the-week-in-fast-forward-05-02-10/ Look Left – The Week in Fast Forward | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Wednesday, Left Foot Forward rebutted more of Grayling’s false claims – pointing out that the experiences of under-16s are [...]

  • http://clueless3655.wordpress.com/2010/02/07/newsflash-tories-dont-have-a-clue/ NEWSFLASH! Tories Don’t Have a Clue! « Clueless 3655

    [...] we’re not barbarians). <Mark Easton (BBC Home Affairs Editor), Senior Tory; Ian Duncan Smith, Left Foot Forward). I could go on, but you get the [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/politics-summary-monday-february-8th/ Politics Summary: Monday, February 8th | Left Foot Forward

    [...] accommodation to be spent on new accommodation”. The criticism follows the attacks on Chris Grayling last week over his misuse of statistics and general ignorance about [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/02/hypocritical-cameron-voted-against-lifting-parliamentary-privilege-to-allow-evidence-in-court/ Hypocritical Cameron voted against lifting parliamentary privilege to allow evidence in court | Left Foot Forward

    [...] his poll lead slipping, his team’s competence questioned and his policies under attack, David Cameron today stands accused of “breathtaking” [...]

  • http://scottlaplant.net/2010/02/hypocritical-cameron-voted-against-proposals-to-reform-parliamentary-privilege/ Hypocritical Cameron voted against proposals to reform parliamentary privilege « Scott LaPlant

    [...] his poll lead slipping, his team’s competence questioned and his policies under attack, David Cameron today stands accused of “breathtaking” [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/new-evidence-violent-crime-is-down/ New evidence violent crime is down | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Party was strongly criticised by the chair of the UK Statistics Authority for distributing leaflets claiming there had been a “98 per cent increase in serious violent crime”. Share | Permalink [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/08/another-balls-up-by-calamity-chris/ Another balls-up by Calamity Chris! | Left Foot Forward

    [...] February 3rd: Grayling claims there was a “98 per cent increase in serious violent crime” under Labour – the true figure is actually a 43 per cent [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/10/chris-grayling-dragged-into-liam-fox-adam-werritty-row/ Grayling dragged into Fox/Werritty scandal – are Osborne, Gove and Hague next? | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Weak link Grayling: Wrong on the facts, wrong on the stats – Shamik Das, February 3rd [...]