The cost of a Tory government: £20 billion of extra cuts

The difference between a Labour and Conservative government could mean an additional £20 billion of public spending cuts using figures published in today’s Budget. Although David Cameron did not set out today exactly how the Conservative’s economic policy would differ from Labour’s, signals from shadow business secretary Ken Clarke last week suggest that public spending cuts in the next parliament could be drastic if the Tories win.

Annex C of the Budget sets out the public finances including Labour’s commitment to “discretionary action” worth:

“£57 billion in 2013-14, including £19 billion of tax measures and £38 billion in measures to slow the rate of spending growth.”

Analysis by Left Foot Forward shows that if the Tories wish to bring the Treaty Deficit down to 3 per cent by 2014-15, as Ken Clarke suggested last week, it would mean taking an additional £21 billion (1.2 per cent) out of the economy in 2013-14. This would mean a fiscal consolidation of £78 billion in total.

Since the Conservatives have set out that they would prefer spending cuts to make up 80 per cent of their fiscal consolidation, this implies spending cuts of £62 billion with tax increases responsible for £16 billion as the Chart above shows.

Table C2 of the Budget shows that the ‘Treaty Deficit’ will be 5.3 per cent in 2013-14 and 4.2 per cent by 2014-15. If the Tories wanted to hit the EU’s target of 3 per cent by 2014-15 it would mean reducing the deficit by a further 1.2 per cent or £21 billion in each year, at the projected nominal GDP of £1720 billion set out in Table C1.

http://twitter.com/southenddavid/status/10987014468 David Carrington

RT @leftfootfwd: The cost of a Tory government: £20 billion of extra cuts despite improved public finance figures http://bit.ly/9cU3QS
http://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/10987132003 James Meadway

RT @leftfootfwd: The cost of a Tory government: £20 billion of extra cuts despite improved public finance figures http://bit.ly/9cU3QS
http://twitter.com/maximusmanc/status/10987274465 Max p

RT @leftfootfwd: The cost of a Tory government: £20 billion of extra cuts despite improved public finance figures http://bit.ly/9cU3QS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billy_blofeld/ Billy Blofeld

Will,

What is the problem? Reducing spending on a bloated public sector by £20 Billion sounds good – well a good start anyway.

The leader article in The Times today spells it out:

“The biggest single threat to Britain’s recovery is now the size of the public sector, and the projected tax rises to fund it. The public sector has grown out of all proportion to Britain’s ability to pay. But the Government has repeatedly ducked the opportunity for a grown-up debate about what Government is for, what it should and should not do, and what level of public expenditure is sustainable. Instead the debate has narrowed to lopping small percentages off some departmental budgets, and ring-fencing others, rather than questioning the very existence of whole programmes and areas of public life.”
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/11024549201 Will Straw

£20bn more if they want EU 3% rule http://bit.ly/a9yWdt RT @nextleft: r4today if 'bulk' of deficit more than two-thirds, what? 3/4? all?
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/03/after-the-budget-the-questions-for-george-osborne/ After the Budget, the questions for George Osborne | Left Foot Forward

[...] by Left Foot Forward yesterday showed that achieving Clarke’s goal would require a fiscal consolidation of £78 [...]
Mark M

So, Labour to increase taxes by £3bn more than the Tories by 2013-14? Thanks for clearing that up. Other blogs would have you believe the Tories are going to raise taxes by more than Labour.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/03/osbornes-3bn-tax-black-hole/ Osborne’s £3bn tax rise black hole | Left Foot Forward

[...] to 3 per cent by 2014-15 with one-fifth of the consolidation coming through tax rises. As we showed last week, this equates to £16 billion of tax rises by 2013-14. The Government meanwhile has a [...]
http://twitter.com/headsonpoles/status/11957637665 Heads on poles

@apptme2theboard My pleasure http://bit.ly/a9yWdt