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Public Services for All > Published by Will Straw, April 16th 2010 at 11:43 am

Cameron’s dodgy cancer stats

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David Cameron’s debate went from bad to worse this morning as it emerged he had selectively used data on cancer death rates. The man who many expected to win the debate, had to revert to misusing statistics to paint his picture of a ‘broken Britain’. But the facts support a greater focus on early diagnosis – an approach he opposes.

During the discussion on healthcare, David Cameron used statistics on cancer death rates to support his case for scrapping Labour’s manifesto guarantee to “ensure that all patients see a cancer specialist within two weeks of GP referral” targets and, instead, “create a Cancer Drug Fund”. The Tory leader said:

“Now what Gordon Brown is not telling you about the situation with cancer, cancer drugs and cancer outcomes is after all of the things that he has talked about, all of the money that has gone in, our death rate from cancer is actually worse than Bulgaria’s so all that has happened has not actually improved the outcome which is what matters.”

Watch it:

While strictly speaking Bulgaria has lower mortality rates from cancer than the UK, the independent fact-checking website, Full Fact, asks, “Is this the best measure of the quality of cancer care under the NHS? … A more generally acknowledged measure of cancer care quality is the survival rate amongst those contracting the disease.”

Full Fact goes on to detail the row that broke out after a recent Lancet report on Britain’s performance where the authors ended up “conceding that they agreed that many aspects of the data was ‘encouraging’ for the UK.” Indeed, a new release from the Office for National Statistics this morning details that, “Survival improved for most cancers in both sexes between 2001-2006 and 2003-2007.” For example, survival for women with breast cancer increased from 82.0 per cent to 83.3 per cent while survival for men with prostate cancer rose from 77.0 per cent to 79.7 per cent.

The King’s Fund blog covers some other problems with the survival rate stats, Eurocare, before asking:

“Despite these limitations, EUROCARE does paint a broad picture that survival rates, although improving, have been relatively poor compared to other countries. So why is this? And what is needed to improve cancer outcomes?

“One of the major areas that we now know needs greater attention is early diagnosis, at least for some cancers.”

This is precisely the approach that the Labour party has adopted and which the Tories oppose. By contrast, David Cameron’s Cancer Drug Fund is unfunded, inequitable, inefficient, and a top-down approach. Bad Science’s Ben Goldacre described it as “bullshit” on twitter during last night’s debate.

Incidentally, a third measure of NHS effectiveness is premature deaths from cancer. Here, as this blog has detailed, the figures show rapid improvements in recent years. As page 60 of ‘Health profile of England 2009‘ shows, premature mortality from cancer (ages under 65) is 65.8 for men and 62.9 for women per 100,000 in England. By contrast, it is 121.2 for men an 70.2 for women in Bulgaria. Life expectancy in Bulgaria is also significantly worse at 73 years comparewd to 79.4 years in the UK.

David Cameron’s muddle last night reflects his desire to paint a picture of Britain as ‘broken’. He clearly wants Britain to have a worse cancer record than Bulgaria in the same way that he wants violent crime to be up 44 per cent and for one-in-two teenagers to be pregnant in deprived areas. Put quite simply, he is out of touch with reality.

* Figures for the United Kingdom are slightly worse than England’s but much  better than Bulgaria’s. That said, the Prime Minister only has jurisdiction over the NHS  in England.

UPDATE 13.18:

Full Fact draw attention to a pre-election statement from Cancer Research UK which warned about the stats used by David Cameron.

  • http://twitter.com/unslugged/status/12276196371 unslugged

    RT @leftfootfwd: @BenGoldacre @Paul_Lewis Saw your tweets on cancer stats last night. We've blogged it http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/jamiesw/status/12276297601 JamieSW

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/chrisplol/status/12276521685 Chris Paul

    RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/jessica_asato/status/12276696944 Jessica Asato

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/rebecca_a_moses/status/12276888885 Rebecca Moses

    RT @EvidenceMatters: on Cameron's interpretation of UK v. Bulgaria cancer mortality stats. http://bit.ly/cpORjl #LeadershipDebate

  • http://twitter.com/timdouglashr/status/12277229824 Tim Douglas

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/maryxmaguire/status/12277339246 Mary Maguire

    RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/janeayres/status/12277586174 Jane Ayres

    Basically, Cameron's use of stats appears ignorant at best: http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/megahealthcoach/status/12277952165 Trevor Hoskisson

    Cameron's dodgy cancer stats | Left Foot Forward http://bit.ly/cJxF9N

  • http://twitter.com/sspcampsie/status/12276055814 SSP Campsie

    RT @leftfootfwd Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://short.to/21gsj

  • http://twitter.com/dealam/status/12276059208 dealam

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/angryfrommcr/status/12276071794 Bin27

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/fullfact/status/12276075508 Full Fact

    Interesting blog by @leftfootfwd building on our initial check of Cameron's cancer survival claim http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • topsy_top20k

    Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/eskiem/status/12276390099 EskieM

    RT @FullFact: Interesting blog by @leftfootfwd building on our initial check of Cameron's cancer survival claim http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/leonieclarid/status/12276436486 Leonie Prekker of GM

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/labourlist/status/12276493766 LabourList

    RT @LeftFootFwd Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • Bex

    Cameron’s stance that the focus should be creating funds for cancer drugs not related to him receiving support for his views on the economy by Big Pharma CEOs is it?

  • http://twitter.com/manormoose/status/12276633441 ManOrMoose

    RT @EvidenceMatters: .@leftfootfwd on Cameron's interpretation of UK v. Bulgaria cancer mortality stats. http://bit.ly/cpORjl #Leadershi …

  • http://twitter.com/calamityk/status/12276810540 Calamity Kessel

    RT @EvidenceMatters: .@leftfootfwd on Cameron's interpretation of UK v. Bulgaria cancer mortality stats. http://bit.ly/cpORjl #Leadershi …

  • hovedan

    spot on about cameron being out of touch. As i sit here in Hove, sussex, it doesnt look broken to me. Cameron’s attempts to run down our country are really beginning to sound like a desprate man. hes now undermining the work of our oncologists and specialist cancer nurses for his own political gain. My mother is a breast cancer survivor and it was screening and early diagnosis which means she is a survivor and not a statistic. that said can we improve access to the latest drugs, im not a specialist on this – but there does seem to be some inconsistency in prescribing some cancer drugs? perhaps Labour will take another look at this if re-elected.?

  • http://twitter.com/riprap007/status/12276873443 Nicholas Ripley

    Cameron’s dodgy cancer stats http://bit.ly/bjVEve /cc @feedly

  • http://twitter.com/psbook/status/12279705630 Political Scrapbook

    The two big gaffes from Dave last night –> Reds under the bed http://is.gd/bvrRj & Dodgy cancer stats http://is.gd/bvrUl (via @leftfootfwd)

  • http://twitter.com/chrisplol/status/12279830650 Chris Paul

    RT @psbook: The two big gaffes from Dave last night –> Reds under the bed http://is.gd/bvrRj & Dodgy cancer stats http://is.gd/bvrUl …

  • http://twitter.com/janeayres/status/12277534500 Jane Ayres

    RT @FullFact: Interesting blog by @leftfootfwd building on our initial check of Cameron's cancer survival claim http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/thehakkaman/status/12277951167 The Hakka Man

    Cameron's dodgy cancer stats | Left Foot Forward: David Cameron's selectively used data on cancer death rates last… http://bit.ly/aGUsgq

  • http://twitter.com/matthewhardy86/status/12280865998 Matthew Hardy

    RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/cebmblog/status/12281547705 TrustTheEvidence.net

    Cameron needs serious EBM training RT @EvidenceMatters: .@leftfootfwd http://bit.ly/cpORjl #LeadershipDebate

  • http://ucl.ac.uk/cancer Stephen

    I also did not understand his anecdote about the woman who could not get the right cancer drugs (Sutent/Sutinib) and sold her house to fund this. I think he was referring to a story in the Daily Mail of a women who has Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia. However as this letter from NICE attests there has never been any application for this drug to be used for MEN. http://tinyurl.com/yd9q8eg

    I do not knwo why the oncologist thinks sutinib might be effective for this condition???

  • http://twitter.com/rebeccaebrown/status/12285034283 Rebecca Brown

    RT @psbook: The two big gaffes from Dave last night –> Reds under the bed http://is.gd/bvrRj & Dodgy cancer stats http://is.gd/bvrUl …

  • http://bestblogs.labourhome.org/2010/04/16/cameron%e2%80%99s-dodgy-cancer-stats/ Cameron’s dodgy cancer stats « The best Labour blogs

    [...] More… [...]

  • http://twitter.com/aurist/status/12291604350 aurist

    RT @Any1ButCameron: RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats http://bit.ly/cpORjl not wishing to say I told you so I told you so ye …

  • http://twitter.com/carlhunt3r/status/12293085688 Carl Hunter

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats – the facts support a focus on early diagnosis http://bit.ly/cpORjl

  • http://twitter.com/bostoncommunity/status/12294304763 Helen

    RT @psbook: The two big gaffes from Dave last night –> Reds under the bed http://is.gd/bvrRj & Dodgy cancer stats http://is.gd/bvrUl …

  • http://twitter.com/any1butcameron/status/12291515443 AnyoneButCameron

    RT @leftfootfwd: Cameron's dodgy cancer stats http://bit.ly/cpORjl not wishing to say I told you so I told you so yesterday on tweeter

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/look-left-the-week-in-fast-forward-16-04-10/ Look Left – The Week in Fast Forward | Left Foot Forward

    [...] quality is the survival rate amongst those contracting the disease.” As Left Foot forward points out, “survival for women with breast cancer increased from 82.0 per cent to 83.3 per cent while [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/more-cameron-claims-fall-flat/ More Cameron claims fall flat | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Friday, Left Foot Forward debunked Cameron’s misleading use of cancer stats, and his bracketing of China with Iran as potential nuclear threats to this [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/tory-misuse-of-stats-is-infectious/ Tory dodgy manifesto stats | Left Foot Forward

    [...] claimed that half of all teenagers were pregnant in some areas, and David Cameron was caught misusing data about cancer during the first leaders’ debate. It now emerges that their claims about MRSA [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/08/cancer-mortality-and-survival-rates-are-not-the-same-thing/ Cancer: ‘Mortality’ and ‘survival’ rates are not the same thing | Left Foot Forward

    [...] according to the BMJ study. Mortality figures were highlighted in the election when David Cameron questioned the value of the extra cancer [...]