Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour

Our guest writer is Tim Horton, research director of the Fabian Society

A briefing paper published today by the Fabian Society shows that a decision by Nick Clegg to join forces with David Cameron would provide an opportunity for a major electoral revival by Labour at a second election in 2010. It would also place many Lib Dem MPs in danger of being unseated.

If the Lib Dems team up with the Tories it would be a betrayal of the expectations of many progressive voters who voted Lib Dem last Thursday. Many supported the Lib Dems in the belief that they were a progressive, liberal party of the centre-left. Many more will have voted Lib Dem as a way to keep the Tories out.

For example, a YouGov poll just before the election showed:

• 43% of Lib Dem voters described themselves as centre-left or left, compared to 29% who described themselves as centrist and just 9% who described themselves as centre-right or right.

• 39% of Lib Dem voters described the Liberal Democrat party as being centre-left or left, compared to 33% of Lib Dem voters who described the party as being centrist and just 5% who described the party as being centre-right or right.

This suggests that somewhere between a third and a half of Lib Dem voters could find themselves alienated if Clegg teams up with the Tories. Our analysis shows that this alienation of progressive Liberal Democrat voters from a Liberal-Tory pact would suddenly put scores of seats into play for the Labour Party at a second election in 2010.

As the table shows, there are 15 Lib Dem seats that would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched to Labour. These would include all five gains that the Lib Dems made from Labour on Thursday night – Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Burnley and Redcar. Several Lib Dem MPs, including frontbenchers Sarah Teather and Jo Swinson, are even more vulnerable, falling if just one-in-ten Lib Dem voters defects to Labour in protest.

Labour-opportunities-from-lib-con-alliance

What is more, the analysis shows that in many other constituencies Labour could take a large number of seats back off the Conservatives with relatively modest defections from the Lib Dems to Labour.

At a national level, the Lib Dems have positioned themselves as opponents of the Tories for the last two decades. A Lib-Tory pact would make Labour the sole source of opposition to the Conservatives in many seats, allowing Labour to persuade many former Lib Dem voters to switch to them.

There are 25 seats that would swing back from the Conservatives to Labour if just one-in-five Lib Dem voters in these seats switches to Labour. These would include many seats in the South and the Midlands that Labour lost at the General Election, such as Hendon, Thurrock, Broxtowe, Bedford and Hove, as well as the Tories’ prized gain in the North East, Stockton South.

Fifty-five seats would swing back to Labour if one-in-two Lib Dem voters in these seats switched to Labour. Though a tall order, along with seats taken off the Lib Dems, this could be enough for Labour to regain a majority at a possible second election in 2010.

Finally, our briefing points out there are also many seats, especially in the South and South-West, where Labour is in third place and could leapfrog the Lib Dems into second place, to provide a platform for future electoral gains. In many seats around the country, both Labour supporters and non-aligned progressives voted for the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out. They will now be scratching their heads if the Lib Dems form a pact with the Tories.

So a Lib-Tory pact would provide a huge opportunity for Labour to re-establish itself as the opposition to the Tories in these seats. Indeed, the need for action here is urgent: according to the website UK Polling Report, whereas after the 2005 election Labour was in first or second place in 499 seats, after the 2010 election, Labour is in first or second in just 418 seats, a fall of 81.

While an objective of moving into second place in more constituencies will not deliver any extra seats for Labour at the next election, it is essential for rebuilding Labour’s base in the south of England over several electoral cycles. If revival in the south of England is only considered one-election-at-a-time, it means the only strategy available is a fight over a segment of Conservative swing voters in those seats where Labour are second.

Important though it is to regain the support of these voters, a more ambitious approach will ultimately be needed, one where Labour fundamentally reshapes its identity in the south of England to become the source of popular opposition to the Conservatives in a way that it has surrendered to the Liberal Democrats over the last few decades.

Of course, a Labour recovery will require hard work to recapture those voters who turned to the Tories last Thursday night. But it is important also to note that a Lib-Tory pact would offer the prospect of significant electoral recovery for Labour even before it gets back a single Tory voter, by allowing it to eat into the Lib Dem vote in many constituencies.

It is an opportunity Labour should seek to grasp ahead of a possible second election in 2010.

http://twitter.com/houseoftwits/status/13717577699 House Of Twits

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/richardmarcj/status/13717745283 Richard Johnson

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/2me2you2me/status/13717870138 2me2you

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/2me2you2me/status/13718009996 2me2you

Clegg done irreparable damage 2 marginal/tactical voters http://bit.ly/cBblji – http://wp.me/pQUG2-3k @leftfootfwd Like UR analysis #GE2010
http://twitter.com/adanylkiw/status/13718186306 Ann Danylkiw

in another #ge2010 1/5 libdem voters vote #labour instead, #labour wins, says Fabian society http://is.gd/c2lGS prerequisite: Brown out.
http://twitter.com/gwingwyn/status/13718320603 emma jane in london

RT @Marcus_Hickman: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji cc @laurabunt @nagandrea
http://twitter.com/kaschwilder/status/13718523097 Kasch Wilder

RT @HouseofTwits: RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/newsaboutwomen/status/13718690026 womensviewsonnews

RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/aaronjohnpeters/status/13718842144 aaron peters

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by …
http://twitter.com/bobski67/status/13719016007 Rob Watson

RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji (via @LabourList) #joinlabour
http://twitter.com/markstaniland/status/13719260705 Mark Staniland

Defeat,the perfect medicine.Funny old game,politics RT @leftfootfwd LibCon coalition would b "electoral gift" 2 Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/jruddy99/status/13717564890 John Ruddy

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji < LD MP's must b made aware of this
http://twitter.com/houseoftwitslab/status/13717577249 HouseOfTwitsLab

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/josshands/status/13717660357 Joss Hands

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/jordanbhall/status/13719619540 Jordan Hall

RT @labourlist: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/uponnothing/status/13717715534 Kevin Arscott

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/benjiw/status/13717741475 Ben W

RT @HouseofTwitsLab: RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/jesus_john/status/13717746720 John West

RT @uponnothing: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/seancourt/status/13717765410 Sean Court

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/ciphergoth/status/13717787276 ciphergoth

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://thenovocastrian.wordpress.com Rob Carr

While I agree with the strategic principle that this can only be good for Labour electorally, I still worry for the people who potentially lose under a Tory government. With reduced tax credits, job cuts, and other services slashed, let’s hope they’re not in long enough to do any real damage.
http://twitter.com/ajhl/status/13717832312 Andy Hewitt-Lock

Trufax RT @uponnothing: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/nitle74/status/13717835640 Tracii

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://pantteg.blogspot.com/ Ian Graham

Tim Horton’s paper puts some welcome detail onto what one feels instinctively is the case. The question that I haven’t heard asked anywhere is whether these talks are all an elaborate charade – i.e. whether Clegg feels that he has had to do what he said on the tin, and possibily also allow time to pass and reflection to take place, but that actually he is positioning himself to be able to deal with Labour eventually, having ‘demonstrated’ that a deal with the Tories isn’t on.
http://twitter.com/tristanstubbs/status/13717864425 Tristan Stubbs

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/garethalteran/status/13717902237 Gareth Lewis Shelton

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/2me2you2me/status/13719902978 2me2you

Cleggs stance in #hungparliament an 'electoral gift' to Labour as per – http://bit.ly/cBblji – http://wp.me/pQUG2-3k #GE2010 #doitnick !
http://twitter.com/olszewskirj/status/13717948442 Richard Olszewski

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/baroquechick/status/13717978696 Tamsin Williams

RT @uponnothing: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/danhartland/status/13719991984 DanH

RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji >> With link to an essential Fabians paper.
http://twitter.com/christineottery/status/13717991609 Christine Ottery

Scary stuff! RT @leftfootforward Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/emalizer/status/13718045221 Emily Needham

Exactly what I've been hoping would happen – RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/karoline__z/status/13718060216 Karoline Zwierzynska

RT @christineottery: Scary stuff! RT @leftfootforward Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
Sam Morris

I voted Lib Dem to keep the tories out in my area and because I think they’re like Labour but with better policies. If Lib Dem’s sign a coalition with the Conservatives, I’ll have to seriously think about voting yellow again.

Is electoral reform worth signing a deal with the devil? I’d take it if we had another election under a new system in a year’s time. Would you?
http://twitter.com/sciorama/status/13718095696 Cait MacPhee

Interesting! RT @christineottery @leftfootforward Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/adanylkiw/status/13718119848 Ann Danylkiw

figured as much (@britesprite) RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/marcus_hickman/status/13718152789 Marcus Hickman

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji cc @laurabunt @nagandrea
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/13718157935 Will Straw

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by Fabian's Tim Horton
http://2me2you.wordpress.com/2010/05/09/clegg-on-the-precipice/ Clegg on the precipice? « 2me2you

[...] Left Foot Forward have done a statistical analysis that furthers the argument that Clegg could do real damage to his parties long term prospects – and bolster Labour. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Is Nick Clegg God?Can Nick Clegg Justify His Inclusion? [...]
http://twitter.com/rosejames1/status/13718245458 Joanne Platt

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/ayshaqureshi/status/13718276806 Aysha Qureshi

@marcusaroberts Getting keener on Lib-Con especially after reading this – http://bit.ly/cBblji. Let the LDs tear themselves apart.
Robert Vincent

Couldn’t it also be an electoral gift for the Conservatives?

There are many seats where the Lib dems and Tories are neck and neck… with Labour far behind.

A swing to Labour in those seats could split the vote enough for the Tories to win them.
http://twitter.com/loopyb_75/status/13718291815 Louise John

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by …
http://twitter.com/RupertRead Rupert Read

A Lib-Con coalition would be utter disaster for the Libs electorally in places like here, where I’m writing from, in Norwich South. The seat would then without doubt fall to Labour – or to the Greens. Many Greens voted ‘tactically’ (sic.) for the Libs last Thursday – but didn’t expect that they were voting for Dave!
http://twitter.com/labourlist/status/13718435155 LabourList

RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/judithhaire/status/13718452663 Judith Haire

RT @labourlist: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/shibleylondon/status/13718456079 Shibley Rahman

RT @labourlist: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/carysw/status/13718547692 Carys Williams

RT @labourlist: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/david_hewson/status/13720665127 David Hewson

Fabian Society says Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://ow.ly/1IZmz And has some numbers 2 back it up
http://twitter.com/hearn/status/13718600333 Steve Hearn

RT @uponnothing: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji Get in bed with Tories & loose my vote nick!
http://www.shamik.co.uk Shamik Das

Robert – indeed. If you’re in the South West, for example, why bother voting Lib Dem if you’ll end with the Tories anyway. It’s difficult to see any plus points for the Liberals, they’ll be squeezed out of existence. In signing a pact with Cameron, Clegg will be signing his own political death warrant.
http://twitter.com/antipathy/status/13720726283 Simon Shrimpton

Left foot forward post – interesting insight into what the future holds for lib dem support following ConDem alliance http://bit.ly/dfXSZE
http://twitter.com/ntlk/status/13718633023 Natalia

RT @KaschWilder: RT @HouseofTwits: RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/laurabunt/status/13720838311 Laura Bunt

@marcus_hickman spotted RT @leftfootfwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji << great analysis
http://twitter.com/2me2you2me/status/13718819930 2me2you

@acynicali not all-but there is a danger sizeable proportion may jump ship? as per http://bit.ly/cBblji – http://wp.me/pQUG2-3k #GE2010
http://twitter.com/redwidge/status/13718837070 Leepy Lee

RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/julietims/status/13721043109 Julie Tims

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/willtanner1/status/13718947818 Will Tanner

RT @labourlist: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/jamiesw/status/13721214964 JamieSW

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/ljcfitz/status/13721280671 Elizabeth FitzGerald

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by Fabian's Tim Horton
http://twitter.com/thirtysix/status/13721432671 Nat

RT: Interesting argument: @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/mayorwatch/status/13721592445 MayorWatch

"15 Lib Dem seats would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched to Labour" http://bit.ly/cuyEO8
http://bestblogs.labourhome.org/2010/05/10/lib-con-coalition-would-be-an-%e2%80%9celectoral-gift%e2%80%9d-to-labour/ Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour « The best Labour blogs

[...] More… [...]
http://twitter.com/rowanns/status/13721802125 Rowan Hooper

Briefing paper: "Lib-Con coalition would be an electoral gift to Labour" http://bit.ly/bHgcdJ
http://twitter.com/lauracarline/status/13722028713 Laura Carline

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/peterdcox/status/13722188467 peterdcox

Cardiff Central would fall to Labour if LibDems pursue pact withTories http://ht.ly/1J07c just one of 15 seats on the line for Clegg!
http://twitter.com/photoinsomniac/status/13722430350 Tom Nicholls

Apologies for that accidental piece of self-promotion. It is this that I agree with: http://bit.ly/ckxCrZ
http://twitter.com/shaunrowland/status/13722525024 Shaun Rowland

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << interesting take
Ian

You wouldn’t need much of a swing from Lib Dem to Labour to take back the constituency I live in, either (Corby) – the Tories took it with a slim majority. I’m a bit frustrated at the Lib Dems’ refusal to vote tactically – we could have had a Lib-Lab coalition and a referendum on reform. This election has been a pyrhhic victory for the Liberals.

Interesting that a lot of the seats in that table are in Scotland. Would we have near- domination of Scotland by Labour and Tory domination in England? I’m a bit worried about what might happen in terms of Scottish independence, and this isn’t being given enough attention, for me. Since devolution, we haven’t really seen the Scots flex their muscles, but that was under a Labour government with Scots at the heart of Westminster. They’d feel alienated by a Cameron-led government in London that they didn’t vote for.
http://twitter.com/rachaeldeal/status/13720634517 Rachael Deal

Maybe this #ConDemNation wouldn't be so bad.. RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
geoff garside

this is wishful thinking from start to finish and childish to boot. What matters now is the governance of the UK, not whether labour has a good chance of getting into power. I say this as one who has never voted conservative and used to vote labour routinely.
http://twitter.com/drsm79/status/13723101926 Simon Metson

Interesting analysis http://is.gd/c2waJ – #dontdoitnick
http://twitter.com/antipathy/status/13720726283 Simon Shrimpton

Left foot forward post – interesting insight into what the future holds for lib dem support following ConDem alliance http://bit.ly/dfXSZE
Gordon Malonez

The Lib Dems know this as well, though, and as much as it would be a gift to Labour, it would kill the Lib Dems off for good. Let’s hope Clegg bares that in mind over the next few hours.
Gordon Hickley

Don’t let a deal between Liberal and Conservative parties make you bitter. A broad government is required to get Britain out of the dire mess left by Gordon “No return to boom and bust” Brown.
John McGowan

This is based on the risky assumption that the Tories will be percieved to be screwing it up. One thing that was missed in the campaign was an improvement in the economy. The Tories might do a lot better with the public that many people think and will be in the driving seat. Try this short piece by John Cassidy in the New Yorker. If the Tories can grab it now I can’t help feeling they might be able to dig in and some of these calcluations will be bye the bye.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2010/05/an-election-well-worth-winning.html
http://twitter.com/rjmrgn/status/13720836525 Richard J. Morgan

http://bit.ly/cptopp – pretty much sums up why Cleggles'd be mental to get into bed with the Tories. #dontdoitnick
Rob

Isn’t it naive to think that the Lib Dems wouldn’t also lose some votes if they (a) entered into a coalition under the hugely-unpopular Brown or (b) refused to back anyone and forced another election.

This is a lose-lose for the Lib Dems.
http://twitter.com/david_singleton/status/13723420445 David Singleton

Very interesting piece on @leftfootfwd stating that Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
Rob Michael-Phillips

So what happens if part of the deal is Tories not standing, or a coalition candidate standing in Lib/Lab marginals? Anyone thought of that have they?
http://twitter.com/2me2you2me/status/13721126439 2me2you

extent of Clegg damage on marg/tactical voters? http://bit.ly/cBblji – http://wp.me/pQUG2-3k @leftfootfwd can be 'electoral gift' #GE2010
http://twitter.com/jamiesw/status/13721201436 JamieSW

@samwolfson pertinent to our convo yesterday: http://bit.ly/cCsdFw
http://www.robdyke.com/bec/2010/05/10/would-brent-central-lib-dems-punish-sarah-teather-for-libcon-pact/ Brent East Campaigning.

[...] a constituency likely to swing back to Labour at a second general election in 2010. “As this table shows, there are 15 Lib Dem seats that would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched [...]
http://twitter.com/apoliticalpest/status/13721269920 Ben Craig

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/apoliticalpest/status/13721269920 Ben Craig

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/danharkin/status/13721274458 Daniel Harkin

http://bit.ly/9k5dSV interesting article on why Labour should love a LibCon pact #ukelection
http://twitter.com/danharkin/status/13721274458 Daniel Harkin

http://bit.ly/9k5dSV interesting article on why Labour should love a LibCon pact #ukelection
http://twitter.com/ljcfitz/status/13721280671 Elizabeth FitzGerald

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by Fabian's Tim Horton
http://twitter.com/thebadrash/status/13721293056 Tom Clarke

"There are 25 seats that would swing back from Tory to Labour if 1-in-5 LibDem voters in these seats switch to Labour." http://bit.ly/bqZMAu
http://twitter.com/kciroy/status/13721418539 Yorick

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/chasing_dragons/status/13723920254 Kyle Grayson

Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/b9nJou
http://twitter.com/twmercer/status/13721473715 Thomas Mercer

Tim Horton argues ConDem alliance would be a gift for Labour http://trunc.it/7tci5
jamiego

This assumes Lib Dem voters ever consider Labour as a genuinely progressive option – I think many would sooner vote Green than Labour.
http://twitter.com/mrpower/status/13721685364 Mike Power

RT @LabourList: RT @LeftFootFwd Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji < You wish!
http://twitter.com/newleftproject/status/13721696865 NewLeftProject

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by Fabian's Tim Horton
http://twitter.com/jheawood/status/13721727328 Jonathan Heawood

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji nice idea from Tim Horton and @nextleft
http://twitter.com/hal_berstram/status/13721741607 Hal Berstram

Tim Horton brilliant on why Lib-Dem coalition would be a gift for Labour – http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/goodoldmj/status/13721856921 Martin Johnston

43% of libdems describe themselves as 'centre left' RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Concoalition would be electoral gift to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
Anon E Mouse

The Lib-Dem’s lost seats at this election – anybody know if tactical support towards Labour kept Labour in any seats and cost the Lib Dems?

The only show in town is anyone but Labour and if by entering government, albeit with the Tories, the Lib Dems sort the economy out they could get those tactical voters back and finish the now irrelevant Labour Party off in many seats.

Not too many children are forced up chimneys anymore so what’s the point of Labour?
http://twitter.com/martinott/status/13721903885 martinott

RT @david_hewson: Fabian Society says Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://ow.ly/1IZmz And has some numbers 2 back it up
http://twitter.com/berniefolan/status/13724639260 berniefolan

Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour: http://twurl.nl/iu14jx #ukelection
http://twitter.com/gretnabarman/status/13724686150 gretnabarman

RT @berniefolan: Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour: http://twurl.nl/iu14jx #ukelection
http://twitter.com/shmckeeve/status/13724784979 Sarah McKeeve

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/killerinthesun/status/13722353788 Sam Korn

RT @leftfoodfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Cambridge could go Labour
Jack Hopkins

How many of these seats will still exist if the Tory plan to reduce the number of seats comes off?
Will they not just jump into bed with the Lib Dems to eliminate a dozen labour seats and then go back to the country for another go?
http://twitter.com/bigbenblog/status/13725297495 Man in Westminster

RT @wdjstraw: RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji << Great analysis by …
http://www.youngfabians.org.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/10/a-clegg-cam-deal-could-consign-the-lib-dems-to-history/ A Clegg-Cam deal could consign the Lib Dems to history | The Young Fabians Blog

[...] reasearch shows that 18 of the Lib Dems’ 57 seats are prey to a Labour suge were just one in four Lib [...]
Elaine

John McGowan’s points merit further discussion. I, too, have read the Nation article and others which suggest there will be more scope for manoeuvre and dicretion. Quite simply, I do not know how to assess some of these competing analyses.
The hype of UK=Greece and the more rabid fear-mongering over the deficit has fed into the Tory (and Liberal Democrat) narrative of ‘economic shambles’ and broke(n) Britain and advantages them in lowering expectations in preparation for savage cuts.
When we look at the decisions of Conservative and Con/Lib councils, we see how they chose to adapt to and implement cuts.
Some analyses please……
Jay

Easy solution: Tories stand aside in Lib-Lab marginals as a condition of the coalition. That would give the Liberals a healthy increase in seats.
http://twitter.com/vegan_sarnie/status/13722977026 Sanya Preston

RT @thirtysix RT: Interesting argument: @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/chrisplol/status/13723712210 Chris Paul

RT @David_Singleton: Very interesting piece on @leftfootfwd stating that Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://www.jacquiemartin.com Jacquie Martin

For all those headscratchers, this is a lesson in voting with your heart versus tactical voting.

Also, for LibDem heirarchy – if they sell out on anything, and simply aligning with the Tories probably ranks as that – they will learn another lesson: decide your values. Those things that define you and which people recognise as being an intrinsic part of you. Betray them and they will come back to haunt you. Labour found that out when it widened the equality gap.
http://twitter.com/helenbarrett/status/13724520968 Helen Barrett

RT @David_Singleton: Very interesting piece on @leftfootfwd stating that Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour: http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://www.we-found-it.net/?p=55075 LIVE: ‘Progress made’ as coalition talks break | We-found-it

[...] Tim Horton, the investigate administrator for the Fabian Society, has cursive a post for Left Foot Forward locution that a Tory/Lib Dem accord would be a heritage to Labour. Somewhere between a ordinal and [...]
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/05/could-a-lib-con-alliance-split-the-party/ Could a Lib-Con alliance split the party? | Left Foot Forward

[...] Conservative politicians have involved serious splits taking place in the Liberal Party, along with major damage to its [...]
http://twitter.com/greenrupertread/status/13729513257 RupertRead

http://bit.ly/9k5dSV LDs should be part of a progressive majority 'rainbow' govt- along with Nats http://bit.ly/934fAp ,Greens,SDLP,Alliance
Arnie

How very appropriate “Lib Con!
http://twitter.com/pressfuturist/status/13730588675 Press Futurist

This post from Tim Horton pretty much sums up my position on why a LibDem-Tory coalition might not be bad for Labour: http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/55ayer/status/13731261783 Sean Sayer

http://tinyurl.com/36muqg9 – Why a Lib-Tory coalition is good for the Labour Party #ukelection
http://twitter.com/55ayer/status/13731516160 Sean Sayer

http://tinyurl.com/36muqg9 – Why a Lib-Tory coalition is good for the #Labour Party #ukelection #condem
Liz McShane

Anon – I thought you still supported the Labour Party but it was just GB that you had a major issue with….?
http://www.liverpoolway.co.uk/forum/gf-general-forum/91143-election-night-34.html#post2256376 Election Night – Page 34 – The Liverpool Way

[...] [...]
Anon E Mouse

Liz – Told you he’d cost us the election. I voted Independent and ironically Labour won!

I just think that in view of the drubbing Labour just got it’s time for a realistic approach to the future. Labour should lose the Ed Balls types in any future shadow cabinet and rebuild the party from the grass roots…

Who did you canvas for btw?
Barry Ewart

If Lib Dems sign deal with Tories will be THE SHORTEST SUICIDE NOTE IN HISTORY! I support Progressive Alliance,Labour needs to protect ordinary working people and the vulnerable. Next time we need more local w class grassroots Labour candidates. Bye Bye New Labour, welcome Progressive Labour! All power to the Progressive Alliance!
Liz McShane

Well it wasn’t quite the 1997 (reversed) outcome for the Tories… hardly a ringing endorsement considering where they were at one stage in the polls, the relentless anti Labour/GB media (with the sole exception of The Mirror), the global financial crisis, MPs expenses, etc etc….

I canvassed for Labour – mostly in Islington (although I live in Tottenham) and I am very glad to say the both Labour MPs increased the share of their vote and Labour won back control of the council from the very un-progressive Islington Lib Dems.

I know just today of 4 people who voted LD tactically (switch from Lab) and they are sick at the prospect that that was a proxy Tory vote.
Anon E Mouse

Liz – I myself was very surprised at the Labour vote being so high.

People need to get real here though the Labour Party can hardly be described as “progressive” and if anyone believes the Lib-Dem’s would prop up control freaks like the last Labour bunch is delusional – that would really be the shortest suicide note in history.

There will be things that the Cons and Libs share – ridding the country of ID cards and the third runway at Heathrow for example – but to describe Labour as progressive *really* stretches credibility.

Brown should get some dignity and resign NOW. For Labour it’s over and only irrelevance awaits them…
http://twitter.com/modern1st/status/13736256334 negare la negazione

Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/dmEY3V #p2
Liz McShane

Anon – i think if the Lib Dems get together with The Tories that will be even quicker suicide as they are totally against electoral form and that is the holy grail for the Lib Dems and progressives in general. As I said before lots of people didn’t vote Clegg to get Cameron to get Mugabe!

Labour did really well in terms of council seats at least in London so I think your view of their eminent demise is a bit premature. I understand that you have a vitriolic hate for GB and to a lesser extent towards the party. I am sure GB will do the honorable thing when the time comes.

As far as being irrelevant – tell that to the 8 mn people who voted for them abnd those other voters who switched to LD as anti-Tory vote.

I didn’t hear many people on the council estates of Islington and elsewhere describe Labour as irrelevant – in fact it was quite the opposite – honest!! and sometimes I must say that I was surprised by the fairly positive response on the doorstep given the hostile media context.
Liz McShane

Anon – p.s. re progressive I think Civil Partnerships was a good bit of progressive social policy & legislation – something that the Tories still have trouble accepting.
Liz McShane

Anon – an update . Looks like GB is doing the honourable thing an has announced that he will resign before party conference – that should make you happy anyway.
http://embololalia.wordpress.com/2010/05/10/links-for-2010-05-10/ links for 2010-05-10 « Embololalia

[...] Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour | Left Foot Forward As the table shows, there are 15 Lib Dem seats that would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched to Labour. These would include all five gains that the Lib Dems made from Labour on Thursday night – Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Burnley and Redcar. Several Lib Dem MPs, including frontbenchers Sarah Teather and Jo Swinson, are even more vulnerable, falling if just one-in-ten Lib Dem voters defects to Labour in protest. (tags: 2010election libdems labour.party tories coalition.politics) [...]
http://twitter.com/fallingbackward/status/13745577800 Tam

Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour: http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/05/greens-on-board-for-a-progressive-government/ Greens on board for a progressive government | Left Foot Forward

[...] this blog has been reporting, most voters and members see the Lib Dems as left-of-centre party so a progressive majority [...]
http://twitter.com/paulwmk/status/13746738240 paulwmk

interesting the 39% of voters felt the Libs were left centre-left, with 5% saying they were on the right centre-right http://bit.ly/9k5dSV
http://twitter.com/arunsunder/status/13748484583 Arun Sundar C

"Lib-Con coalition would be an “electoral gift” to Labour" and related posts http://ow.ly/17kpgd
http://twitter.com/muttonchop73/status/13746624296 Kevin Somerton

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/_thalamus/status/13751506436 Will Tisdale

RT @leftfootfwd: Lib-Con coalition would be an "electoral gift" to Labour http://bit.ly/cBblji
http://twitter.com/tishnadesan/status/13793172790 Tish Nadesan

Feel funny about holdalls being spotted outside number 10, but Labour's long game may be well served by it http://bit.ly/cptopp #Lib-Con
http://twitter.com/ridjb/status/13792989819 rich

@holtfasner http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/05/lib-con-coalition-would-be-an-electoral-gift-to-labour/ interesting article
http://twitter.com/benstudd/status/13796272955 Ben Studd

Haven't seen much of Sarah Teather for a while – 3.5% swing to labour next time and she's out http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/eddierobson/status/13798133817 Eddie Robson

@gracedent This makes interesting reading: http://bit.ly/9k5dSV
http://twitter.com/nickseecharan/status/13801433064 Nick Seecharan

we live in hope .. http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/05/lib-con-coalition-would-be-an-electoral-gift-to-labour/
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/05/live-blog-deal-done-brown-to-go/ Live blog: Deal done, Brown to go? | Westminster Blog | FT.com

[...] 6.19pm: On the point of what a Lib-Con coalition would do for Labour votes (see 6pm and comments below), Left Foot Forward broke down the numbers yesterday. [...]
Lady J

Anon, please do us all a favour and go and join the Rats, oops I mean the Tories. Thats where your heart really is.
Lady J

Tim, I agree with your analyses but you do did not take a couple of factors into account;
1. Progressives are not disciplined.
2. Progressives have tendencies to be disloyal.
3. The media is now wholesale more rightwing; even the editor of Mirror did not have the courage to speak up for the party they support.
Until progressives deal with these weaknesses, we will continue to struggle in and out of office.
http://twitter.com/paul_r_kenny/status/13809639518 Paul Kenny

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/05/lib-con-coalition-would-be-an-electoral-gift-to-labour/ – this is start of new journey for socialism
http://2me2you.wordpress.com/2010/05/11/oxymoron-government/ Oxymoron Government « 2me2you

[...] take away from my surprise at what is a coalition between Clegg and Cameron. I, along with LeftFootForward explored the prospect that a LibCon government may have on strengthening Labour support. Sporadic [...]
http://twitter.com/holtfasner/status/13916232340 Holt Fasner

good bit of analysis RT @ridjb @holtfasner http://short.to/2hjn9 interesting article
http://twitter.com/chappy87/status/13975407272 Stephen Champney

Lets hope that this Con-Dem pact does turn out to be an "electoral gift" to Labour. http://twurl.nl/iu14jx
http://twitter.com/bookofdavid/status/14054878657 David McMenemy

RT @timjhorton: ComRes for IoS have 34% of Lib Dems saying the party has sold out its principles. For electoral possibilities here see: http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/timjhorton/status/14054850756 Tim Horton

ComRes for IoS have 34% of Lib Dems saying the party has sold out its principles. For electoral possibilities here see: http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/stellacreasy/status/14110283955 stellacreasy

RT @timjhorton: ComRes for IoS have 34% of Lib Dems saying the party has sold out its principles. For electoral possibilities here see: http://bit.ly/cptopp
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/14157733806 Will Straw

A big welcome to twitter to the Fabian Society's @timjhorton. He wrote @leftfootfwd's most read piece ever http://bit.ly/9k5dSV
ozzy

as a campaigning socialist “on the ground” in cambridge i think Julian Huppert our new lib dem MP is toast at the next election… forget the 1 in 5 lib dem voters malarky the lib dems won cambridge in 2001 on a huge anti war swing unseating Ann Campbell our labour MP, they got a “leftish wing” lib dem MP David Howarth who did a lot of good constituency work, he stood down and his replacement from the lib dems Julian Huppert is a right wing muppet who will be booted out at the earliest possible opportunity. Cambridge does not want a tory MP not even a yellow one
http://www.shoah.org.uk/2010/05/21/labourism-the-working-class/ LABOURISM & THE WORKING CLASS | Shoah

[...] Labour to the Liberals between 2005 and 2010. This is one reason why a Con-Lib government could cost the Liberals in any future general [...]
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2010/05/11/ben-chu-liberal-democrat-false-consciousness/ Ben Chu: Liberal Democrat false consciousness? | blogs.independent.co.uk

[...] I'm very suspicious of all those Labour tribalists arguing that what Lib Dem activists and voters all want is a progressive coalition with Labour..A good example of the genre from Tim Horton on Left Foot Forward here. [...]
http://www.murrow.org.uk murrow

There are some Lib Dem supporters who understand that their party is centre-left AND (not but) has formed a coalition with the tories. In doing so their party has shifted the centre of gravity within the government to the left (compared to a pure conservative government). They have won many tangible commitments in the coalition agreements which would have been unthinkable under a pure Tory government – so some Lib Dems voters even from the far left might on this basis conclude that their votes were far from wasted.
http://twickenhamlabour.org.uk/?p=121 Twickenham Labour Party » Lib Dem vote swings to Labour

[...] consistent with Tim Horton’s analysis for Left Foot Forward in early May which showed that a “Lib-Con coalition would be an ‘electoral gift’ for Labour“. UK Polling Report today details that the overnight YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on 14 per cent [...]
http://twitter.com/shaf_hansraj/status/23178796684 Shafik Hansraj

RT @timjhorton: ComRes finds 1-in-5 who voted LibDem in May now vote Labour http://ht.ly/2Adst See which LibDem & Tory seats would fall http://ow.ly/2AdDZ
http://twitter.com/superfurryandy/status/23187438498 Andy Bean

RT @timjhorton: ComRes finds 1-in-5 who voted LibDem in May now vote Labour http://ht.ly/2Adst See which LibDem & Tory seats would fall http://ow.ly/2AdDZ
http://twitter.com/timjhorton/status/6286112943247360 Tim Horton

ComRes poll finds 1-in-3 who voted Lib Dem in May would now vote Labour. See which Lib Dem & Tory seats would fall here: http://ow.ly/2AdDZ
http://twitter.com/beckycharlwood/status/6296743683559424 Rebecca Charlwood

ComRes poll finds 1-in-3 who voted Lib Dem in May would now vote Labour. http://ow.ly/2AdDZ that's why they are changing constit boundaries.
http://twitter.com/ianarcho/status/6309327186952192 Elliot Page

ComRes poll finds 1-in-3 who voted Lib Dem in May would now vote Labour. See which Lib Dem & Tory seats would fall here: http://ow.ly/2AdDZ
wally

I think history has proved that the Fabians are wrong to have urged alliance with the SDP/Liberals/Lib Dems at every opportunity, and perhaps the time has come for them to realise that the only way we will get progressive politics is if we in the Labour party actually fight and legislate for it. We cannot and should not allow third parties to dilute what is best for our country.