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Left Foot Forward > Published by Guest, June 18th 2010 at 5:01 pm

Do we really know what voters think about immigration?

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Our Guest Writer is Zaki Nahaboo, who works on the Demos Open Left project www.openleft.co.uk

Immigration has been one of the dominant issues in the first month of the Labour leadership election. The Mrs Duffy incident has been seized on by Ed Balls as a moment that summed up Labour’s disconnection from their own voters. Before the General Election, Ipsos MORI found immigration to be the forth most important issue concerning voters. In March YouGov found Labour was perceived as the worst major party on dealing with the issue of immigration.

Diane Abbot has been consistent during the early hustings in arguing that immigration is a proxy for voters concerns about inequality and class. The proxy argument is persuasive, but polling suggests attitudes towards immigration are also bound to cultural perceptions.

Way back in December 2004 YouGov conducted a poll investigating perceptions about immigration. This poll asked about the non-economic dimension to immigration issues and asked questions on attitudes towards ethnic groups, while also taking into account social class.

The 2004 data showed that 25% would think their community would ‘disapprove’ if more Polish people came to live there. With the exception of Australians (on 6%), all other ethnic groups had much higher rates of disapproval than the Polish category. Those who would experience the highest rates of disapproval were considered to be Iraqis (64%) and Pakistanis (58%). We cannot attribute difference in disapproval rates to simply direct economic concerns (such as social housing or job security). Social class made little impact on the differentiated attitudes towards ethnic groups, as the range between ABC1 and C2DE groups reached its highest at 6%. The world has moved on since 2004 and concern about Eastern European migration and strains on public services in Britain has risen. However what the YouGov 2004 Poll highlights is the importance of non-economic factors determining attitudes to immigration.

The Mrs Duffy question highlighted the paucity of Labour’s listening skills; but the issue cannot be solved by purely centring on the direct economic impact of immigration upon livelihood. Tinkering with the points-based system will not appease voters as immigration is bound up with numerous other issues. The cultural issues are much harder to address, but the Left does need to acknowledge that perceptions of immigration are bound up with issues over the provision of public services.

As Rushanara Ali argued in a Demos report, losing touch with the public once in Government is the bane of any party, particularly one with a long history of struggling on behalf of the marginalised and vulnerable. The issue of immigration provides an opportunity to re-engage the lost voters, strengthening Labour’s commitment to social justice and constructing Labour as a movement with grassroots concern. Here candidates would do well to continue exploring immigration as a proxy for issues which cause resentment such as quality of care homes, social housing and job security. Yet for Labour to abide by the principles it seeks to reconnect with, it must be more than a party that seeks to satisfy public opinion on immigration at the expense of compromising on social justice and internationalism.

  • http://billyblofeld.wordpress.com Billy Blofeld

    Zaki,

    It is easy to find out what the average voter thinks. Read back issues of The Sun for the last 10 years. The one things The Sun excels at is summing up the public mood with clarity.

    In their pages you will also find a summary of the other reasons that we kicked out Labour from government. You won’t like reading it – but that is where you’ll find the answers you are looking for…………

  • http://twitter.com/duncanstott/status/16481395662 Duncan Stott

    "the importance of non-economic factors determining attitudes to immigration" http://bit.ly/cUlm6C I'm not non-economist, but…

  • Anya-Nicola Darr

    Laoubr should be keeping it promise on house building and job creation as much of the perceived problem with immigrants was due to a lack of affordable homes and jobs for the indeginous population. Also Labour should continue to push the message that we are par tof Europe now…PLEASE don’t give into bigotry whatever happened to International Socialism!

  • tracy j

    International Socialism went the same way as National Socialism. We don’t want either back, thanks.

  • Mr. Sensible

    Billy I don’t think using the Sun as an example is a great idea.

  • MikeSC

    The Sun and it’s ilk form public opinion- small lies that appear everyday and accumulate in the minds of readers to create a racist culture that expects forrins to come over here and eat our swans.

    Anyway, maybe the way that the media presents certain ethnic groups influences how much people percieve them to be harmful?

  • http://refusingthedefault.blogspot.com/ cim

    “Ipsos MORI found immigration to be the forth most important issue concerning voters.”

    One of the problems with this sort of polling is that it doesn’t give much clue about what concerns voters. If they say “health” or “education” is important, it’s a fair guess that they’re not concerned there’s too much of it. If they say “immigration” is important, I don’t know that it automatically follows that they think there’s too much – yes, most probably will, but I could honestly tick that box – it was probably the major reason I didn’t vote Labour this time round – because I’m concerned that immigration policy (Labour or Conservative) is far too harsh. (And I don’t answer that way on surveys, because I’m aware of how it will then be interpreted, but some people will choose to be technically honest instead)

  • CraigM

    Immigration is rather proxy for xenophobia in most who see it as an issue (and overt racism in a minority). Unfortunately, it is (and shall forever remain) a big sh*tty stick that those on the right can use to beat those on the left.

    Thankfully, there is a chance that it will wane as an issue now that the “great Eastern European migration” has reversed.

    The worst that can happen is to pretend to be tough on it, when your educated brain (and thus occasionally your miked-up mouth is screaming “get me away from these bigots”.

  • http://twitter.com/drkmj/status/16496242551 DrKMJ

    Do we really know what voters think about immigration?: http://bit.ly/bkeJGd via @leftfootfwd

  • Liz McShane

    Tracy J – you are talking through your hat & comparing socialism to nazism is sick & offensive.

  • Liz McShane

    Tracy – p.s. if you can’t make your points without having to resort to gratuitous, offensive comments then it’s rather sad really.

  • http://socialisteconomicbulletin.blogspot.com/ Michael Burke

    Zaki,

    a useful and ineresting piece.

    Have you seen research from Stan Greenberg? Think you’ll find it intersting.

    http://www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php?ID=2445

    He shows that there was a group who ‘consdered voting Labour’, 8% of all voters, but didn’t who were *less* hostile to immigration than Labour voters (or LibDems).

    Also, Labour did badly in terms of its values representing voters values on immigration, just 22%. But this was not because they wanted a more restrictive policy- the Toris only scored on this issue in line with thei actual vote. Immigration was the only issue on which the LibDems outscored Labour, at 23%, and they had a policy of an amnesty for long-standing failed asylum-seekers.

  • tracy j

    Liz. get off your high horse. fascism and socialism are from the same place. and your comments about terrorists and conservatives on the other thread were disgraceful.

  • http://bestblogs.labourhome.org/2010/06/18/do-we-really-know-what-voters-think-about-immigration/ Do we really know what voters think about immigration? « The best Labour blogs

    [...] More… [...]

  • David Jones

    tracy j, learn some history – you’re being daft!