Alexander: David wins on second preferences

David Miliband’s campaign is confident he will prove just as popular a second choice for voters in the Labour leadership contest as his brother Ed. At a bloggers’ briefing today in London, campaign co-chair Douglas Alexader, sought to challenge the common assumption, promoted by Gary Gibbon among others, that Ed Miliband has a lead in second preferences.

Mr Alexander cited anecdotal evidence that Miliband Snr was winning a series of Constituency Labour Party nominations including those where second preferences were decisive. David Miliband has a lead over his brother of 110 CLPs to 79 CLPs although some contests have been fought on a winner-takes-all ballot rather than using the transferable votes system set out in the rules.

The focus on second preferences indicates that the Miliband campaign are not expecting to win a knock out blow in the first round. But Alexander refused to write off the chances of Balls, Burnham and Abbott coming second despite the weight of evidence that the contest is a two-horse race between the Miliband brothers.

In suggesting that David is as popular as Ed on second preferences, Alexander has an unlikely ally in right-wing blogger Guido Fawkes, who is staking money on David Miliband, on the basis that, “Experience shows that second preferences tend to break in correlation with first preferences.”

An Ed Miliband campaign spokesperson this evening countered that their candidate had emerged as the candidate of the grass roots:

“It’s not just that we are running a campaign nearly entirely staffed by volunteers, but also that a pattern is emerging where if a CLP or Trade Union has canvassed its members widely, they tend to nominate Ed.”

“This bodes well for Ed when individual members are considering where to place their support and preference.”

Claim and counter-claim are hard to verify while so little information exists in the public domain. In the absence of sufficient funds to pay for a poll of Labour members and trade union members, Left Foot Forward has used Labour List’s self-selective poll for our model of the leadership election. But we are now seeking a more scientific approach by asking readers who are Labour members to submit the first round results of their party’s local nominations.

Anybody with information about their local CLP nomination should post it in the comments section below or tweet them using the #CLPVote hashtag. We are interested in constituency name, candidate nominated, methodology (ie first-past-the-post or transferable voting), and scores in the 1st round of voting (ie before any candidates were knocked out).

Left Foot Forward will collate the information in a google doc and use the information to guide our leadership model.

http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/19272175743 Will Straw

Help @leftfootfwd determine who is winning among Labour members by telling us the breakdown of your #CLPVote http://bit.ly/aboYDl
Simon

I hardly think Guido Fawkes is a reliable commentator of this contest.
http://twitter.com/andy_s_64/status/19279083707 Andy Sutherland

RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences – help us determine if he's right http://bit.ly/aboYDl < #AnyoneButDM FFS!
http://twitter.com/nextleft/status/19280746268 Sunder Katwala

RT @wdjstraw: Help @leftfootfwd determine who is winning among Labour members by telling us the breakdown of your #CLPVote http://bit.ly/aboYDl
http://twitter.com/9xzulug/status/19283024765 winston k moss

RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences – help us determine if he's right http://bit.ly/aboYDl
Sunder Katwala

This from larry turner on twitter ..

Rushcliffe CLP nom by GC – previous GC voted against all member meeting by 6 to 2

Vote: DM: 7 EM: 6 DA: 1
Sunder Katwala

Katie Curtis

@nextleft castle point – GC (which is made up of nearly all active members) it was AV and was won in third round (Ed Miliband). 20 votes total.
http://twitter.com/dominiccampbell/status/19284068750 Dominic Campbell

"some contests have been fought on winner-takes-all rather than using transferable votes system set out in the rules" http://bit.ly/cnZC3w
http://twitter.com/nextleft/status/19286497293 Sunder Katwala

please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd http://bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT
http://twitter.com/labourlist/status/19286638503 LabourList

RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd http://bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT
Mark Colburn

Mcr Withington, all member meeting, Ed Miliband, transferable vote used. First round result: David Miliband 22, Ed Miliband 19, Andy Burnham 4, others 0. Ed got the transfers to overtake his brother to win the nomination.
http://twitter.com/psbook/status/19288625295 Political Scrapbook

RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see @LeftFootFwd http://bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT
Andy Dowland

Not a CLP but UNISON South West Labour Link Committee voted to decide who to back in the national UNISON decision.

On the first round, Ed M got 5 votes, Andy 4, Diane 3, David 2 and Ed B 0 (David and Ed B eliminated)
Both David’s 2nd preferences were for Andy so second round was Andy 6, Ed M 5, Diane 3
Diane’s 3 votes were distributed 1 to Ed M, 1 to Andy (via Ed B) and 1 not distributed.
Final round was therefore Andy 7, Ed M 6

Taunton CLP I’ve only got partial information on, David got 8 out of 17 first preference votes but didn’t receive a single 2nd preference and got beat in the final round by Ed M 9-8
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/19322761001 Will Straw

RT @nextleft: please use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of your CLP nomination (see http://bit.ly/aboYDl) & pls RT
Joshua Peck

Bethnal Green and Bow CLP and Poplar and Limehouse CLP, meeting jointly as Tower Hamlets Borough Labour Party GC, last night nominated Ed. Ed, David and Diane were proposed and the two rounds of votes were Ed 15/21; David 14/15, Diane 11/-.
Joshua Peck

Sorry – should be clear Ed Miliband was nominated
http://twitter.com/sowadally/status/19325991942 Stewart Owadally

RT @leftfootfwd: Alexander: David wins on second preferences http://bit.ly/cnZC3w
John

Gateshead CLP nominated David Miliband.

Process – someone from the floor proposed that we nominate David Miliband. the Chair took this as a motion, and stressed it was up to those who either didn’t want to nominate or who wanted to nominate someone else to vote against this motion.

Vote – all member meeting, I think about 40 in the room. Miliband got 17 votes, and I think about 9 voted against. Presumably the remaining hadn’t yet decided what they thought.
http://twitter.com/scottseamons/status/19350168828 Scott Seamons

CLP nominations r stupid & undemocratic! Check spreadsheet at bottom http://bit.ly/cnZC3w #labourleadership Just 27 voices in Brum Ladywood!
http://twitter.com/khutchinsondean/status/19352061676 KieranHutchinsonDean

RT @ScottSeamons: CLP nominations r stupid & undemocratic! Check spreadsheet at bottom http://bit.ly/cnZC3w #labourleadership Just 27 vo …
http://twitter.com/nextleft/status/19371992557 Sunder Katwala

Do use #CLPVote hashtag to record vote breakdown of CLP nominations – new or old (see http://bit.ly/aboYDl)
Ian

Corby CLP nominated Diane Abbott. About 40-50 people in the room, alternative vote system ranked 1-5. Ed Balls eliminated first, then David Miliband, then Diane won.