David leads Ed by 8 points in first scientific poll of electoral college

David Miliband leads Ed Miliband by eight points in the run-off – 54%:46% – in the fullest survey yet undertaken of the Labour leadership contest. In a YouGov poll for today’s Sun, in the overall electoral college, David leads Ed 37%-29%, with Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham on 12 per cent each and Ed Balls on 11 per cent. In the run-off, the brothers are level among party members, with David 56%:44% ahead among trade unionists and 55%:45% among MPs and MEPs.

YouGov used Left Foot Forward’s analysis of the race amongst MPs and MEPs for the first preference figures for their poll, with the figures for the run-off based on the assumption MPs who support Abbott, Balls and Burnham divide equally between Ed Miliband and David Miliband.

The data shows that Ed Miliband, though behind overall, is ahead among second preferences in every section except the MPs/MEPs section, where less is known. Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, says it is not yet certain who will win, but that “the other candidates are nowhere” and “trail miles behind”.

In his commentary on the poll, Kellner sets out “four big uncertainties”, which are:

• Whether the leaders of the big unions have much influence on their members;

• Will differential turnout affect who wins;

• Which brother will the 80 parliamentarians who are backing the outsiders transfer to; and

• Who will get trade union and party members’ second, third and even fourth preferences.

YouGov polled 1,184 Labour Party members and 1,102 Labour-supporting members of trade unions affiliated to the Labour Party – the figures include 300 people who are both party members AND members of affiliated unions; they are counted in both groups, as they will have two votes in the leadership election.