Who will win Labour’s 2nd preferences?

Activist sentiment in Constituency Labour Party nominations suggests that David Miliband has a slender lead over Ed Miliband in the membership section of Labour’s electoral college. But evidence from those constituencies where there was a run-off between the two Milibands suggests that the younger brother may have a lead in second preferences.

Our appeal on twitter and by email to all CLP secretaries has delivered the full nomination results of 64 local parties where nominations took place and the votes of 1,610 Labour members. In votes cast from our sample of local Labour meetings, David Miliband has 35.3% of the vote followed by Ed Miliband (31.4%), Diane Abbott (14.4%), Ed Balls (10.1%), and Andy Burnham (8.9%). The results for the front runners are surprisingly similar to Labour List’s self-selective poll of Labour members which was used in Left Foot Forward’s model.

It is harder to make any inferences about second preferences since in the majority of cases the CLP either erroneously used first-past-the-post or there was a decisive winner in the first ballot. But in the 12 races for which we have information about a run-off between the two Milibands, Ed gained most second preferences in nine races, David in two, and they were tied in one. In these races, Ed picked up 54 votes while David gained 34.

Left Foot Forward has also spoken this week with a small group of Labour MPs who had nominated either Diane Abbott, Andy Burnham or Ed Balls. Again it is hard to make generalisations from such a small sample but the findings again reiterate how close the race has become. Of the nine willing to divulge a preference between the two Miliband brothers, five are for David and four for Ed. David’s second preferences came primarily from Andy Burnham backers while Ed’s came primarily from Diane Abbott’s.

If you have more information about your CLPs’ race, please send it editor@leftfootforward.org.

daniel Mayhew

In are ClP only 13 people turned up to vote who we would choice there has to be more members in this area so you can’t take those figure with any true
http://twitter.com/lockpickernet/status/19761496441 LockPickerNet

Who will win Labour's 2nd preferences? http://bit.ly/aYz3UF via @leftfootfwd
winston k moss aka 9xzulug

LABOUR MUST KEEP REPRESENTING THE VIEWS OF THE LEFT.IT’S EITHER DIANNE ABBOTT OR ED MILABAND(but he must stop contardicting his original views)
http://twitter.com/psbook/status/19764735004 Political Scrapbook

RT @leftfootfwd: Who will win Labour's 2nd preferences? http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/markfergusonuk/status/19765009701 Mark Ferguson

RT @psbook: RT @leftfootfwd: Who will win Labour's 2nd preferences? http://bit.ly/aYz3UF << similar to @LabourList poll….
Mike

Its Ed all the way

because if its David we might as well set up a big Coalition
http://bestblogs.labourhome.org/2010/07/28/who-will-win-labour%e2%80%99s-2nd-preferences/ Who will win Labour’s 2nd preferences? « The best Labour blogs

[...] More… [...]
It doesn’t add up…

Surely the big question for Labour is who will give them any second or lower preferences under AV – and who might give first preferences to another party instead of Labour.
Nick

Agree with Mike. I’m voting for Ed M and I’m convinced he will win.
http://twitter.com/redpaddy69/status/19812261098 Seán Ó Sé

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey latest: @DMiliband in front in sample of 1,600 Labour activists – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/liza_harding/status/19812436079 Liza Harding

RT @leftfootfwd: Who will win Labour's 2nd preferences? http://bit.ly/aYz3UF | @andyburnhammp backers 2nd prefs r @DMIliband me vice versa!
http://twitter.com/alystarrzan/status/19812783031 Alys Tarr

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey latest: @DMiliband in front in sample of 1,600 Labour activists – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/drummerrich1/status/19815945147 drummerrich1

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey: @Ed_Miliband takes lead in sample of CLP second preferences – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/annoathome/status/19816368942 Dulcie Fairhurst

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey: @Ed_Miliband takes lead in sample of CLP second preferences – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/drjonathanphd/status/19816495445 Jonathan Davies

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey: @Ed_Miliband takes lead in sample of CLP second preferences – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/ns_mehdihasan/status/19817799224 Mehdi Hasan

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey: @Ed_Miliband takes lead in sample of CLP second preferences – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
http://twitter.com/milibairn/status/19833545819 Milibairn

RT @leftfootfwd: LFF #LabourLeader survey: @Ed_Miliband takes lead in sample of CLP second preferences – http://bit.ly/aYz3UF
Joanne Milligan

Will, well done on trying to pull some kind of analysis together. I appreciate how difficult it is giving the scarcity of detailed and accurate information, the variety of ways in which CLPs made their decisions and the high number of supporting nominations won on first preferences. From the 55 CLPs on the list, for which there is useful and usable data, 28 were won in the first round so there’s no transfer data – 12 won by David, 10 by Ed M, and 2 each by Diane, Ed B and Andy.

Which brings me to numbers – I copied your google doc in to an excel spreadsheet and it appears your sums don’t add up! (or google docs formulas were misbehaving).

Of the 55 CLPs with useful and usable data (35 on your google doc either made no nomination or there was no 1st round or 2nd round data on preferences) David leads the pack on 1st preferences with 623 votes (36.76%), Ed M has 516 votes (30.44%), Diane 245 votes (14.45%), Ed B has 166 votes (9.79%) and Andy has 145 votes (8.55%). A total of 1695 votes.

In the 15 CLPs where there was a run-off between David and Ed M for the nomination, and for which data is available, Ed M picks up another 63 votes and David another 34 (out of a possible 140 which went to other candidates in 1st preferences). This brings David’s total to 657 and Ed’s to 579.

Happy to email you my spreadsheet.

Jo
http://twitter.com/richardangell/status/19850726697 Richard Angell

RT @Jo_Milligan Corrected sums on @leftfootfwd analysis of CLP votes puts @dmiliband more ahead in last rnd http://bit.ly/aYz3UF #dm4leader
http://www.lukeakehurst.blogspot.com Luke Akehurst

Unfortunately this data doesn’t tell you where the 2nd preferences of Abbott, Balls and Burnham supporters would go in the places where they are strongest – the CLPs they came first or second in.

It’s also not comparing like with like – some of these were all member meetings and others GCs or even ECs. So the all member ones distort the numbers.
maxy

It is a strange world indeed when the Conservative Party looks more forward looking and progressive on the question of Israel. Gaza is an open prison and it is Israel that needs to be brought to account for the holding of 1.5 million Palestinians hostage to an imposed siege by Israel. I would really like to have a proper and informed debate on the Palestine question as the Labour Party I feel is too slow to condemn Israel. David Milliband is far too timid on the subject. Clearly the softly softly approach to Israel as advocated by David Milliband has not worked. Look at the stolen passport issue: why has that story gone quiet. It is my sincere hope that whoever is elected to become Labour leader will adopt an approach which is bolder than that of the Conservative Party. The Labour Party’s position on Palestine is already looking outmoded and irrelevant.
Charlie Big

Hello Will,

I think the flaw in your reasoning here.. “But in the 12 races for which we have information about a run-off between the two Milibands, Ed gained most second preferences in nine races, David in two, and they were tied in one. In these races, Ed picked up 54 votes while David gained 34.”

Is that you are looking at 12 races where is was close between the brothers, without looking at 2nd preferences where it was NOT close between them. You would expect it to be tight given the selection of CLP races..