Comments on: Who will win Labour’s 2nd preferences?

By: Charlie Big

Charlie Big — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 14:10:16 +0000

Hello Will,

I think the flaw in your reasoning here.. “But in the 12 races for which we have information about a run-off between the two Milibands, Ed gained most second preferences in nine races, David in two, and they were tied in one. In these races, Ed picked up 54 votes while David gained 34.”

Is that you are looking at 12 races where is was close between the brothers, without looking at 2nd preferences where it was NOT close between them. You would expect it to be tight given the selection of CLP races..

By: maxy

maxy — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 14:55:14 +0000

It is a strange world indeed when the Conservative Party looks more forward looking and progressive on the question of Israel. Gaza is an open prison and it is Israel that needs to be brought to account for the holding of 1.5 million Palestinians hostage to an imposed siege by Israel. I would really like to have a proper and informed debate on the Palestine question as the Labour Party I feel is too slow to condemn Israel. David Milliband is far too timid on the subject. Clearly the softly softly approach to Israel as advocated by David Milliband has not worked. Look at the stolen passport issue: why has that story gone quiet. It is my sincere hope that whoever is elected to become Labour leader will adopt an approach which is bolder than that of the Conservative Party. The Labour Party’s position on Palestine is already looking outmoded and irrelevant.

By: Luke Akehurst

Luke Akehurst — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 21:09:24 +0000

Unfortunately this data doesn’t tell you where the 2nd preferences of Abbott, Balls and Burnham supporters would go in the places where they are strongest – the CLPs they came first or second in.

It’s also not comparing like with like – some of these were all member meetings and others GCs or even ECs. So the all member ones distort the numbers.

By: Richard Angell

Richard Angell — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 19:50:39 +0000

RT @Jo_Milligan Corrected sums on @leftfootfwd analysis of CLP votes puts @dmiliband more ahead in last rnd http://bit.ly/aYz3UF #dm4leader

By: Joanne Milligan

Joanne Milligan — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:53:40 +0000

Will, well done on trying to pull some kind of analysis together. I appreciate how difficult it is giving the scarcity of detailed and accurate information, the variety of ways in which CLPs made their decisions and the high number of supporting nominations won on first preferences. From the 55 CLPs on the list, for which there is useful and usable data, 28 were won in the first round so there’s no transfer data – 12 won by David, 10 by Ed M, and 2 each by Diane, Ed B and Andy.

Which brings me to numbers – I copied your google doc in to an excel spreadsheet and it appears your sums don’t add up! (or google docs formulas were misbehaving).

Of the 55 CLPs with useful and usable data (35 on your google doc either made no nomination or there was no 1st round or 2nd round data on preferences) David leads the pack on 1st preferences with 623 votes (36.76%), Ed M has 516 votes (30.44%), Diane 245 votes (14.45%), Ed B has 166 votes (9.79%) and Andy has 145 votes (8.55%). A total of 1695 votes.

In the 15 CLPs where there was a run-off between David and Ed M for the nomination, and for which data is available, Ed M picks up another 63 votes and David another 34 (out of a possible 140 which went to other candidates in 1st preferences). This brings David’s total to 657 and Ed’s to 579.

Happy to email you my spreadsheet.

By: Milibairn

Milibairn — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 15:19:29 +0000