The DWP’s mysterious figures on workless households

Something odd has been happening at the Department of Work and Pensions. There have recently been a plethora of stories about the 250,000 households in the UK ‘where no one has ever had a job‘.

DWP-in-the-shadows

Yet the DWP have not made this analysis available to the general public via its website – as is the case for the vast majority of DWP’s statistics – despite the Coalition’s commitment to ‘throw open the doors‘ of public bodies.

But the DWP has confirmed to Left Foot Forward that they did brief the press, and have provided a copy of the press release (which is still not listed in the DWP’s newsroom). As well as being secret, the figures provided to journalists appear to contain errors.

Press reports make clear that the DWP said that adults in 250,000 households had never had a job. However, by the time Left Foot Forward recieved the figures the estimate had changed to 325,000 households, as a result of an ‘error’ in the original analysis.

This also means that DWP’s correction in City AM to Chris Grayling’s additional error (when he first stated that there were 71,000 households in London who had never worked, comprising 23 per cent of the population, which was then revised to 61,000 and 7 per cent of the London population) is also incorrect. The most recent figures provided by the DWP to Left Foot Forward suggest that they now believe there are 95,000 households in London in this position, who comprise 4 per cent of the population.

But the real problem goes beyond the secrecy and the statistical mistakes. It is beginning to look as if DWP ministers are insisting that officials put a party-political spin on what should be a straightforward release of statistical information.

Many of the households included in the analysis are likely to be made up of people the Government does not expect to work and has committed to protecting – severely disabled people and single parents with very young children. DWP statistics show that around 10 per cent of people who undergo the Work Capability Assessment are placed in the Employment and Support Allowance Support Group, which means that the Government does not expect them to seek work or undertake work-related activity.

Even using this contentious measure of severe disability, a minimum of 260,000 disabled people nationally are in this position – some will never have worked.

Similarly, there are around 1.9 million single parents with dependent children in the UK, of whom around 57 per cent are in employment. It is likely that around 200,000 of those single parents who are not in work have very young children, and that a proportion of these people may never have had a job. The Government only believes that only single parents whose oldest children are over five should be in paid work, so using these people as evidence of persistent worklessness seems disingenuous.

In addition, the analysis published by DWP is not broken down by age – meaning that young unemployed people and student households are included in the analysis. However, ONS analysis suggests that around 39 per cent of households where no one has ever had a job are households aged 16-24. Workless student households are not a key government concern. On the other hand high levels of youth unemployment definitely are – but these young people need support, not criticism. With youth unemployment at 17.5 per cent, it seems hard to see how any Government could hold young workless households responsible for their predicament.

Of course, there are people included in the data who have never worked and are not young, disabled or parents with childcare responsibilities – yet this does not mean that they can all be written off as feckless.

While the Government states that: “the problem isn’t down to a lack of jobs” there are close to 2.5 million people who are unemployed, 2.3 million economically inactive people who want to work and less than 500,000 vacancies across the economy.

In addition, many of these vacancies are for posts that long-term unemployed people are unlikely to be qualified to undertake (for example 62,000 are in health and social work, 31,000 in financial services and 35,000 in professional and scientific activities) and positions are not spread evenly around the country – in many areas of the country where there are even fewer jobs than the national figures suggest. Between June and July, the number of vacancies available fell.

Any objective analysis of these statistics would acknowledge these points, yet they have been presented in a way that encourages the media to blame those who are out of work for their predicament.

Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice – it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence. Prolonged periods out of work have significant negative impacts on health and wellbeing for individuals as well as damaging the economy.

Research by the Prince’s Trust has recently shown the impact that growing up in a workless family can have for children. According to their report one in five (20 per cent) of young people living in workless households said that seeing their parents out of work made them anxious about finding a job, one in four (25 per cent) said their parents didn’t have the knowledge to help them find employment and two-fifths (39 per cent) of those living in communities with high levels of unemployment said they worried that they would never find a good job.

The Government are also wrong to imply that benefit levels are too high. It cannot have escaped the DWP’s attention that Jobseeker’s Allowance levels in the UK are now worth less than they were in the 1980s. If households are receiving high benefit payments it will be a consequence of them being in significantly greater need – for example parents caring for disabled children or large families or families where adults are disabled are entitled to higher levels of state support.

We cannot even assume that everyone in the DWP’s analysis will be claiming benefits: the Labour Force Survey will include exceptionally wealthy people who do not have to work as well as workless households that are not entitled to welfare payments (e.g. students). In addition, households that are entitled to benefits but are not claiming them (unclaimed benefits save the Treasury around £16 billion a year) are counted in the Government’s workless household figures.

Of course the Government should be doing all that it can to support people who are out of work to move into jobs. But implying that everyone who is not in work should and could be in employment, that people facing long-term worklessness are somehow to blame for their position and that overly generous state support is preventing people from entering jobs is not borne out by the evidence. Of course there is nothing to stop politicians making those claims, but they should not expect DWP officials to do so on their behalf.

http://twitter.com/mediaactivist/status/21648250025 Jay Baker

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/21648338504 BendyGirl

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/tonysurr/status/21648436112 Tony Surr

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/doctorpete/status/21648681675 Pete

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/21648690369 Shamik Das

DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP reveals @leftfootfwd investigation
http://twitter.com/rosannablabla/status/21649296235 Rosanna

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://theoldpolitics.blogspot.com/ oldpolitics

I can see that it may be possible to be confused about the number of workless households, but how are the percentages so awry? Surely the number of households in London is a known quantity to at least the nearest half-million? The range of figures given puts it anywhere between 310,000 and 2.4 million. The latter number seems intuitively the more plausible one – but how did nobody ever think “Hang on, 71,000 households is 23% of the London population? That can’t be right”.
http://twitter.com/trakgalvis/status/21649622560 Trakgalvis

DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation via @leftfootfwd
http://twitter.com/sarahsiddons/status/21649744388 Sarah Siddons

RT @trakgalvis: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation via @leftfootfwd
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/21650842656 Will Straw

DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/spitfirepilot1/status/21650859061 Chris Horner

RT @wdjstraw: DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/therailwayman/status/21650964151 Steve Wakefield

RT @wdjstraw: DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/maenllwyd/status/21651365009 Dominic Smith

RT@wdjstraw DWP issuing secret briefings on unemploy't,flaky numbers to select journalists http://bit.ly/bbBYKP <do as we say not what we do
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/21651409047 BendyGirl

@lilwatchergirl Moving chaos here, but have you seen this for WTB? http://bit.ly/bkl4at
http://twitter.com/maenllwyd/status/21651417033 Dominic Smith

RT @wdjstraw DWP's secret briefings on unemploy't with flaky numbers to select journalists http://bit.ly/bbBYKP <do as we say not what we do
http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/21651495254 Shamik Das

See also @FullFact's unearthing of the real jobless stats http://bit.ly/abSOzr (@leftfootfwd piece here: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP) #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/politicshomeuk/status/21651528356 politicshomeuk

Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly breifing press with misleading figures about workless households http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://billyblofeld.wordpress.com Billy Blofeld

Never trust politicians…………. this reminds me of Gordon Brown’s 500,000 jobs he supposedly saved…. and also his 500,000 new Green jobs hogwash…..
http://twitter.com/politicshomeuk/status/21651546837 politicshomeuk

Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures about workless households http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/paulstpancras/status/21651640434 paulstpancras

RT @politicshomeuk: Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures about workle… http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
Richard

Good work Will but none of the media will make a correction it is out in the public domain and will be tucked away in the minds of those who want to use it for good or ill. This govt seems to making a habit of dodgy stats….very worrying.
http://twitter.com/welshcollie7/status/21651787256 Colette

RT@wdjstraw: DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #benefits
http://twitter.com/jackstone36/status/21651833596 Jack Stone

RT @politicshomeuk: Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures about workless households http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
Patrick

For more on the spate of questionable benefits statistics in the press recently check out this article on fullfact.org

http://bit.ly/abSOzr
http://twitter.com/batsgirl/status/21651864677 Mary

RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/bkl4at
http://twitter.com/kieronflanagan/status/21651886660 Kieron Flanagan

RT @politicshomeuk Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures abt worklessness http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/tim_nicholls/status/21652057595 Tim Nicholls

RT @wdjstraw: DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/carlplant/status/21652400075 carl plant 

“RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/bkl4at” All the more reason for #opendata
http://twitter.com/sjrw/status/21652782573 Stephen

RT @politicshomeuk: Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures about workless households http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/drkmj/status/21652803254 DrKMJ

DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation via @leftfootfwd
http://twitter.com/citizensuite/status/21652871352 Adriel Hampton

RT @carlplant “RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/bkl4at” All the … http://bit.ly/dvtLP1
http://www.touchstoneblog.org.uk/2010/08/whats-going-on-with-dwps-statistics-on-workless-households/ What’s going on with DWP’s statistics on workless households? | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC

[...] have a post up at Left Foot Forward considering the mystery of DWP’s statistics on workless households. Over the course of recent [...]
http://twitter.com/mindinflux/status/21653179774 Mind In Flux

DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources | Left Foot Forward: http://bit.ly/bkBL10
http://bestblogs.labourhome.org/2010/08/20/the-dwp%e2%80%99s-mysterious-figures-on-workless-households/ The DWP’s mysterious figures on workless households « The best Labour blogs

[...] More… [...]
http://twitter.com/cindypenney/status/21653437122 Cindy Penney

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://www.order-order.com Guido Fawkes

If they briefed the press, how is it secret? Is it secret as in they didn’t brief LFF?
http://twitter.com/scrappyspj/status/21653742572 Simon Johnston

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/andy_s_64/status/21653775124 Andy Sutherland

RT @wdjstraw: DWP have been issuing secret briefings on unemployment with flaky numbers to select journalists. http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/jamiepotter/status/21653868755 Jamie Potter

RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/bkBL10
http://www.shamik.co.uk Shamik Das

Whatever happened to a new style of open government Cleggy and his boss promised us?

http://programmeforgovernment.hmg.gov.uk/government-transparency/index.html

If it’s not made available to the public is this not “secret”? I thought you were in favour of greater transparency, not just among the right wing press but among everybody?!
http://twitter.com/sophiaparker/status/21654357770 sophiaparker

brilliant piece by TUC's Nicola Smith on @leftfootfwd today http://bit.ly/cPxDAh
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/21654680501 BendyGirl

@wheresbenefit Could someone pls put this on the blog? I'm moving today, eek! http://bit.ly/bkl4at
http://twitter.com/madresearch/status/21665753978 Maisy

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/jamespevans/status/21668823823 James Evans

RT @politicshomeuk: Left Foot Forward say DWP have been secretly briefing press with misleading figures about workless households http://bit.ly/bbBYKP
http://twitter.com/sms_policywatch/status/21689464197 SMS PolicyWatch

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP issues secret briefing about unemployed people and refuses to provide sources: http://bit.ly/bbBYKP #ConDemNation
http://twitter.com/dmarsd/status/21693645850 David Marsden

'Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice – it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence': http://ur1.ca/16ycw #mhuk
http://twitter.com/excludeduk/status/21693677948 excludeduk

RT @dmarsd: 'Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice – it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence': http://ur1.ca/16ycw #mhuk
http://twitter.com/mindinflux/status/21693708450 mindinflux

RT @dmarsd: 'Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice – it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence': http://ur1.ca/16ycw #mhuk
http://twitter.com/beatricejbray/status/21694331124 beatricejbray

RT @dmarsd: 'Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice – it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence': http://ur1.ca/16ycw #mhuk
http://twitter.com/daughteroflir/status/21703308150 Finuala D’Arcy

RT @dmarsd 'Long-term worklessness is not a lifestyle choice– it is a debilitating, stressful and difficult existence': http://ur1.ca/16ycw
http://twitter.com/rich_w/status/21838418015 Rich Watts

@lilwatchergirl This may be of interest to @wheresbenefit: http://is.gd/ewDjv
http://twitter.com/dr_nick_online/status/21985020185 Nick Winstone Cooper

Superb analysis on the open #Condem governemtn's interpretation of figures as it suits them http://tinyurl.com/27n4zc4
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/08/more-mail-manipulation-over-benefit-fraud/ More Mail manipulation over benefit fraud | Left Foot Forward

[...] week, Left Foot Forward exposed the secret briefings on workless households from the DWP, which led to several stories in the [...]
http://www.touchstoneblog.org.uk/2010/08/mark-hobans-new-definition-of-fairness/ Mark Hoban’s new definition of fairness | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC

[...] considered as part of people’s income (it is certainly considered by the Government when they leak stories to the press about the levels of benefit that families are entitled to), and secondly that [...]
http://twitter.com/tenpercent/status/22218842028 TenPercent

RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/bkBL10
http://twitter.com/nosmallmeasure/status/22701029068 Paul Wilson

DWP’s mysterious figures on workless households http://tinyurl.com/27n4zc4
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/09/the-great-dwp-conjuring-act-on-worklessness-figures/ The great DWP conjuring act on worklessness figures | Left Foot Forward

[...] first time the DWP have provided mysterious figures on the jobless. Last month Left Foot Forward revealed a disturbing distortion of statistics, which led to newspapers lambasting the 250,000 households [...]
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/09/the-myth-of-the-intergenerational-workless-household/ The myth of the intergenerational workless household | Left Foot Forward

[...] be new evidence on households where no adult has ever had a job. That the evidence in question was secretly briefed to journalists rather than officially released by the Department for Work and Pensions indicates [...]
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/10/not-so-tough-not-so-fair-the-coalition-cannot-be-trusted-on-welfare-reform/ Not so tough, not so fair: The coalition cannot be trusted on welfare reform | Left Foot Forward

[...] workless households to flourish – statistics to which the Department of Work and Pensions seemed strangely reluctant to accord an official press release and which were not made available to the general public through [...]
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/10/new-grayling-porkie-on-welfare-reform-statistics/ New Grayling porkie on welfare reform statistics | Left Foot Forward

[...] Department for Work and Pensions are at it again. Fresh from their erroneous private briefings on worklessness and a spate of “dubious or selective use of statistics concerning welfare and [...]
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/11/the-desperate-secretive-dwp/ Housing benefit cuts: Just how desperate is the secretive DWP? | Left Foot Forward

[...] been a hotbed of this sort of quasi-official briefing for several months, as has been pointed out here and by [...]
http://twitter.com/darkestangel31/status/5738785857871872 Loraine Hardy

RT @leftfootfwd: The DWP's mysterious figures on workless households http://bit.ly/9rM6TP