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Left Foot Forward > Published by Will Straw, December 8th 2010 at 4:07 pm

EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows ‘Yes’ campaign in clear lead

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The pro-AV ‘Yes to Fairer Votes‘ campaign was given a double boost today. A new poll, seen exclusively by Left Foot Forward, shows the campaign is in the lead while the Labour Yes! campaign has launched with support from across the party’s different wings.

An ICM poll for the Electoral Reform Society shows that voters want a switch to the Alternative Vote (AV) system by a factor of 3:2. Thirty five per cent say they will vote ‘yes’ in the referendum, with 22% voting ‘no’ – and 35% undecided. The poll showed support across social classes and regions. The only age group with a majority against is 55-64 (31% yes, 33% no, 29% undecided). The findings are at odds with polling for YouGov which has shown the ‘No’ Campaign in the lead.

The poll also suggests that Labour would gain an electoral dividend from taking a clear pro-AV stance on the issue. Labour’s election coordinator, Andy Burnham, had previously said that Labour would not campaign for AV. The poll asked:

“If the Labour Party decided to support changing the voting system for British parliamentaryvote Labour in Your next Local Council election/ The 2011 Scottish Parliament election/The 2011 Welsh Assembly election  or would it make no difference one way or the other?”

Thirty-one per cent of voters who identify with Labour are more likely to vote for the party if they support AV while just 2 per cent would be turned off. Campaigning on the issue also appears to be a significant way of attracting Liberal Democrats to the party with 17% to 8% saying they would be more likely to vote Labour if it supported the change.

The Guardian today published a letter from Labour MPs and activists including leader, Ed Miliband, stating that “First past the post isn’t working … It’s time for change”. As Next Left has noted, the list unites many of the party tribes:

“the signatories show that this is a rare cause with the ability to unite Ken Livingstone with Neil Kinnock and Oona King, Tony Benn and Peter Mandelson, Tessa Jowell and Tom Watson, Jon Cruddas and Roy Hattersley, James Purnell and John McDonnell, Phil Collins and Neal Lawson (and even, from journalism, Kevin Maguire and John Rentoul).”

In response, the ‘No’ campaign have resorted to pretending to be proportional representation purists. A sign of perhaps that they’ll try anything to defeat the referendum.

The Yes to Fairer Votes and Labour Yes! campaigns are both on twitter: @YesInMay and @LabourYes

UPDATE 17.15:

The ‘No’ campaign are now trying to shoot the messenger. Head of press, Dylan Sharpe, formerly an advisor to Boris Johnson, tweets:

Utter rubbish from @leftfootfwd & @wdjstraw. Poll by the Electoral Reform Society who are #Yes2AV & the qu isn’t the one that will be asked!

For the benefit of Mr Sharpe, the poll was carried out by ICM Research, a respected pollster. The question said:

“A referendum is due to be held in May 2011 on adopting a new voting system for British parliamentary elections. The proposed new system is calledthe ‘Alternative Vote’ (AV). If the referendum on AV were held tomorrow, how would you vote?”

Not so different from YouGov’s longer winded question which explained the different systems before asking:

“If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether to stick with first-past-the-post or switch to the Alternative Vote for electing MPs, how would you vote?”

  • http://twitter.com/vriyait/status/12539365003632640 Vijay Singh Riyait

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/stackee/status/12539962620641280 Stace

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/marcusaroberts/status/12540193156366336 Marcus A. Roberts

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/duncanstott/status/12540286349611008 Duncan Stott

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/danielfurruk/status/12540505275502592 Daniel Furr

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/12540596543557632 Shamik Das

    EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead: http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw on @leftfootfwd #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/anonymoosh/status/12540622271418368 Ceehaitch

    RT @DanielFurrUK: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/rickmuir1/status/12540748842930176 Rick Muir

    RT @shamikdas: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead: http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw on @leftfootfwd #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/richdavidson/status/12540978825011200 richdavidson

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/bfutureuk/status/12541391150260224 brighter future

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/warelane/status/12541938901196802 Julian Ware-Lane

    RT @shamikdas: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead: http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw on @leftfootfwd #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/zoeimogen/status/12541977178406912 Zoe O’Connell

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/ns_mehdihasan/status/12542044375355392 Mehdi Hasan

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/amydodd80/status/12542390128607232 amy dodd

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #labouryes

  • http://twitter.com/bridgetfox/status/12542510719045634 Bridget Fox

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/aston186/status/12542791141818369 Daniel Aston

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/hal_berstram/status/12542921827942400 Hal Berstram

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/jameswharrison/status/12542931592290304 James Harrison

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/labouryes/status/12543022365409280 Labour Yes

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #labouryes

  • http://twitter.com/yes2av_london/status/12543855832342528 FairerVotesLondon

    RT @labouryes: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #l …

  • http://twitter.com/steve_race/status/12544664632565760 Stephen Race

    RT @psbook: ICM polling shows "Yes" campaign have 3:2 lead on AV, according to @leftfootfwd http://bit.ly/eLMMPk

  • http://twitter.com/marcusaroberts/status/12545161187827712 Marcus A. Roberts

    RT @psbook: ICM polling shows "Yes" campaign have 3:2 lead on AV, according to @leftfootfwd http://bit.ly/eLMMPk

  • http://twitter.com/niaccurshi/status/12545536884219904 Lee Griffin

    RT @labouryes: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #l …

  • http://twitter.com/thechristophe/status/12545787749732352 theChristophe

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • Dave Page

    Shame that while some Labour MPs are personally in favour of the Yes to Fairer Votes campaign, the party’s refusal to register as a supporter of the campaign means that those MPs can’t spend time or money in a Labour capacity supporting it!

    If they were serious about AV, as their manifesto suggested, the party would register as a supporter of the referendum under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, allowing them to spend time and money campaigning for AV.

  • http://twitter.com/brdonnelly/status/12546062816387072 Ben Donnelly

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/haneefjkhan/status/12546905288474624 Haneef Khan

    EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb RT @leftfootfwd:

  • http://twitter.com/glgabriel/status/12547191075766272 George Gabriel

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb

  • http://twitter.com/glgabriel/status/12547457795760128 George Gabriel

    @billybragg backing from across the party + voters 30% more likely to turnout if Labour backs new politics http://bit.ly/e27HCL

  • http://twitter.com/jamesswyer/status/12547701530951680 James Swyer

    @dylsharpe Surely these figures can't be accurate? http://bit.ly/eLMMPk They've got to be taken from an unrepresentative pool…

  • http://twitter.com/geordie365/status/12548016728702976 Stephen Howse

    RT @psbook: ICM polling shows "Yes" campaign have 3:2 lead on AV, according to @leftfootfwd http://bit.ly/eLMMPk

  • http://twitter.com/drdickyd/status/12548952842833921 Richard Davis

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/afeakes/status/12549141544570880 Alex Feakes

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/stephenpglenn/status/12549543992238081 stephenpglenn

    Latest polling with a neutral question shows #Yes2AV in the lead (via @leftfootfwd) http://bit.ly/eLMMPk #YesinMay @FairerVotesNI

  • http://twitter.com/iainlobb/status/12549566364655616 Iain Lobb

    RT @labouryes: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #l …

  • http://twitter.com/josephnicholas/status/12549727799214080 Joe Coney

    http://bit.ly/eLMMPk – new poll showing AV yes vote winning…. From Left Foot Forward.

  • Mister Jabberwock

    I couldn’t see Ed Miliband’s name at the foot of the letter in the Guardian???

  • http://twitter.com/chrisbramall/status/12552275306225664 Chris Bramall

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/12552975763378176 Lewis Baston

    New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw <Interesting but inconclusive as 35% don't know

  • http://twitter.com/meralhece/status/12554736322482176 meral hussein ece

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/votenotoav/status/12557746771591168 Vote No To AV

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb

  • http://twitter.com/electoralreform/status/12563211467362304 Electoral Reform Soc

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/scottjlawson/status/12564141596221440 Scott Lawson

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/duncanstott/status/12568122456276993 Duncan Stott

    @wdjstraw Is this an official "Labour Yes To Fairer Votes" logo? http://bit.ly/eF9tex

  • http://twitter.com/dylan_lewis/status/12572995868434432 Dylan Lewis

    New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead | Left Foot Forward: http://bit.ly/fDJkN9 #Yes2AV #Labouryes

  • http://twitter.com/cal_politics/status/12574943476715520 Martell Thornton

    EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead: The poll also suggests that Labour would gain an elector… http://bit.ly/eXTwyY

  • http://twitter.com/chrisiprocter/status/12575259454611457 Chris Procter

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • Howard

    And the other Miliband’s name?

  • http://twitter.com/poldyn/status/12591655387398144 Political Dynamite

    Well done @yesinmay for getting a head start in the AV referendum campaign http://bit.ly/e27HCL

  • http://andrewhickey.info/2010/12/08/linkblogging-for-081210/ Linkblogging For 08/12/10 « Sci-Ence! Justice Leak!

    [...] A new poll shows a clear plurality in favour of a yes vote in the AV referendum. [...]

  • Eamon Walsh

    This is great news. Ed Miliband’s best chance of attracting more votes from disillusioned Lib Dem’s is to actively campaign for a Yes Vote. AV also has the added benefit of allowing Labour to win majorities; as the Jenkin’s Report shows and it would also help to drive a wedge between the coalition parties as they watch their poll figures inevitably slide downwards. It’s a win-win for Labour.

  • http://yestofairervotes.wordpress.com/2010/12/08/reasons-to-be-cheerful-part-2-new-poll-shows-yes-campaign-in-the-lead/ “Reasons to be Cheerful!” Part 2 – New Poll shows ‘Yes’ campaign in the lead | Yes to Fairer Votes – Birmingham

    [...] You can read the full article about the poll here on Left Foot Forward [...]

  • http://twitter.com/blogsoftheworld/status/12622717698187264 blogs of the world

    The pro-AV campaign was given a double boost today. A new poll shows the campaign is in th… http://reduce.li/qawall #clear

  • http://twitter.com/nextleft/status/12631672155541505 Sunder Katwala

    RT @psbook: ICM polling shows "Yes" campaign have 3:2 lead on AV, according to @leftfootfwd http://bit.ly/eLMMPk

  • http://twitter.com/king_matt1st/status/12638738182045696 matt king

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/mhairu/status/12640543314018304 Mhairu McLaughlin

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/biggirlbranding/status/12647019441033217 Big Girl Branding

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://twitter.com/paulsandars/status/12648979498016768 Paul Sandars

    RT @labouryes: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #l …

  • http://twitter.com/kevpeel/status/12649520072495104 Kevin Peel

    RT @labouryes: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV #l …

  • http://twitter.com/ed4holywellwest/status/12756307933134848 Ed Watkinson

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/e27HCL reports @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/jamiematthews84/status/12786072266219520 Jamie Matthews

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb

  • http://twitter.com/chrisjlovell/status/12789149970989056 Chris Lovell

    RT @JamieMatthews84: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb @YesInMay @Y2FVYorks

  • http://twitter.com/mshapland/status/12789934263894016 Martin Shapland

    RT @chrisjlovell: RT @JamieMatthews84: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb @Yes …

  • http://twitter.com/quakerpen/status/12820076570873856 Jill Segger

    RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb

  • Anon E Mouse

    Ed Miliband should make a decision and start backing this vote and not wasting time sending letters to the Guardian. So far he has been shown to be a totally useless leader, less decisive than Gordon Brown, and he needs to get a grip on the Labour Party urgently.

    The polls show he never had a honeymoon period and even with all the present unpopular cuts, for the Tories to be where they are in the polls shows how poor a leader he is.

    By encouraging Labour to vote for AV Ed Miliband could stamp his authority on the party and show them who’s boss. He has a tough streak – look how he shafted his brother – AV is important and he needs to be ahead of the curve and prove us all wrong about how totally hopeless he is…

  • http://twitter.com/rantersparadise/status/12917166537969664 irene rukerebuka

    RT @YesInMay: RT @leftfootfwd: EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows 'Yes' campaign in clear lead http://bit.ly/hPcODb #YesInMay

  • http://liberalconspiracy.org/2010/12/17/labour-voters-switch-to-supporting-av-in-new-poll/ Labour voters switch to supporting AV in new poll | Liberal Conspiracy

    [...] poll by ICM earlier in December showed similar trends on electoral reform. [...]

  • http://twitter.com/benitacooke/status/15747384009035776 Benita Cooke

    ICM poll shows a clear lead for the 'Yes!' campaign – 56% to 44% http://tinyurl.com/3836vnh #Yes2AV

  • http://twitter.com/lozkaye/status/15747992669650944 Loz Kaye

    RT @benitacooke: ICM poll shows a clear lead for the 'Yes!' campaign – 56% to 44% http://tinyurl.com/3836vnh #Yes2AV