Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

@leftfootfwd: “By opposing AV – or by campaigning half-heartedly for it – the Labour Party [will gain fewer seats]" http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @theday2day: RT @leftfootfwd Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

Left Foot Forward now claim that greater disproportionality is a good reason to vote Yes http://bit.ly/icErzf #NO2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @HouseofTwits: RT @leftfootfwd Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

Is it really appropriate to choose 1997 as the cut-off point for looking at the impact of AV? This from the BBC suggests that in the three elections before that, Labour would have won fewer seats: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8506306.stm

AV seems to help us when we’re already popular. I’m not sure it does much when we’re not. And it’s not hard to see circumstances where, with the Lib Dems and Conservatives in coalition, it could hurt us a lot.

(I’m probably voting for AV anyway. But I don’t see the strategic case for it as being at all strong.)

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

Why did you leave out the link to the study?

It’s also worth reading this blog post for an alternative view: http://www.cps.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=385:pr-and-conservatives-lessons-from-europe&catid=1:politics&Itemid=42.

In it, the author – a fellow of the Centre for Policy Studies, the think tank set up by Margaret Thatcher and Keith Joseph – argues that electoral reform has led in other countries to long periods of conservative government and enabled the parties of the right to implement radical reforms to employment legislation and welfare. He concludes “Electoral reform might pose a much greater threat to Labour than to the Tories. It is an opportunity not a threat.”

What makes it especially interesting is that the author is the “world’s leading expert on referendums“, Dr Matt Qvortrup of Cranfield University.

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/icErzf

Not linking to or citing the study so we can judge its methodology ourselves really devalues the whole piece.

Plus not only does he turn out to be a CPS fellow but even a brief glimpse at his publications list indicates that he is rather keen on Burke, Hayek and Popper – which hardly suggests a person who is wholly sympathetic to Labour.

RT @VoteNoToAV: Left Foot Forward now claim that greater disproportionality is a good reason to vote Yes http://bit.ly/icErzf #NO2AV

RT @VoteNoToAV: Left Foot Forward now claim that greater disproportionality is a good reason to vote Yes http://bit.ly/icErzf #NO2AV

Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV – http://bit.ly/ibRNJD #YesToAV

http://tinyurl.com/38s7shc Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV & http://www.yestofairervotes.org/

@leftfootfwd Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf @wdjstraw #Yes2AV < AV is about fair voting not party adv

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

@chris_j_booth and link for that: http://bit.ly/fYSqdL

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

I’m not sure how you can take figures from an FPTP system with all the tactical voting etc. that’s involved and extrapolate what people would have put on a preferential ballot instead.

But then again I don’t believe party politics should have anything to do with this. AV is a fairer system and it’s the principled arguments that matter not the partisan ones. Regardless of whom you’re inclined to vote for, whether you stick with the same party most of the time, or you follow policies and respond to each situation as it comes, the most important thing to consider is what’s best for the voters, and what will always be best for the voters independent of party situations and of general situations.

What’s good for your party now may not be good for your party in the future, and vice versa. However a set of voting mechanics designed to give power to the voters will always be so, and that is the reason to say Yes to AV.

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

This piece sums up most of that which is wrong with the Labour party – it is utterly self serving.

The reasons to chose (or not chose) AV should be related to a simple question – does it, or does it not improve the correlation between votes cast and MP’s elected.

If you argue for it for partisan reasons, you are making a case to reject it in the mind of the average voter. (Granted, the Tories are no better, and the Lib Dem’s are simply shameless on the point, but that doesn’t let you off the hook).

I sincerely hope the AV referendum succeeds. But it won’t. In fact, it is likely to fail very badly. In NI, all the major parties are opposed to it. In scotland, Glasgow Labour are very unlikely to campaign for a yes, likwise in Edinurgh. In the NE of England, AV is unnecessary since reds have their votes so heavily concentrated…

where the AV system would benefit Reds the most would be in the Midlands marginals… Oldham, Nottigham, Tamworth, Derby, etc etc… the vote can be quite evenly split between red/blue in some of these constituencies and the benefit of yellow & green tranfers to red would aid them significantly…

The No campaign has been energised for months, and all polling indicates that support for AV declines by 5% once the arguments have been explained to voters…

Sadly, the % turnout of the blue rinsers will be very high indeed. we already no that they vote in higher numbers than reds… but this cause will motivate them like no other. The concept of a progressive majority equates to mob rule for some Tories, so I expect their turnout to exceed the yes campaign.

Most worryingly of all, Green voters, BNP voters, UKIP voters are all unlikely to vote yes to AV because it actually disenfranchises them even further…

The best hope the yes campaign has, is for Ed to put his foot down and insist that his party ups its campaign in favour of AV. If he turned it into a referendum on blue cuts [horrible politicking but effective] he might just manage to eek out a narrow yes…

Sadly with just 19 weeks to go, that is very unlikely to materialise.

Éoin, I agree with a large amount of what you’re saying, but your comment on Green, BNP and UKIP voters being unlikely to vote Yes doesn’t make sense to me.

Of the three parties named only BNP are firmly against AV. The other two are officially backing the Yes campaign. Here’s why:

The BNP stand to lose from any preferential voting system especially one where you need to win 50% of the votes to win a seat. The BNP’s best chance of winning a seat is under FPTP by gathering a concentration of support in a single area, getting 30% of the vote and hoping that the remainder of voters are split between candidates so that they can sneak in front. They wouldn’t be able to do that under AV because of their extremist nature. The BNP fill a highly specialised niche and for that reason they’re no-one’s second choice. They’d never get 50% support and they no it.

The Greens and UKIP are a different matter entirely though. They would benefit from AV because AV benefits anyone who would reach beyond their core vote. Both those two parties are taken seriously as second and third choices by voters of mainstream parties, many of whom prefer the likes of the Greens and UKIPs to two of the big three parties.

What AV does is enables every voter to show their true 1st preferences. FPTP does not do that, as the X votes could be anything from 1st preference all the way down to 2nd last because of tactical voting. Once you see what the true 1st preferences are, you’ll see increases in support for any party who deserves it. Those statistics once made public will be used to spur on candidates of all parties and you may see the likes of UKIP and the Greens break into the top 3, especially with the Lib Dems attracting a lot of negativity at the moment.

Under AV anyone who works hard and listens to as many constituents as possible will benefit. Anyone who relies only on their core vote will be punished. I believe that is as it should be.

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

This is pretty persuasive RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @Jon2aylor: This is pretty persuasive RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstr …

RT @Jon2aylor: This is pretty persuasive RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstr …

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

There is a big flaw in us supporting AV that will ruin our electoral chances: Getting people out to vote under AV. Check research – the more complex an electoral system, the more likely those who are unsure of voting aren’t going to bother in the end. And what sort of people are these? The people we try to appeal to a lot – notably the working class and BMEs. Supporting AV will ruin us. AV will bring another decade of Conservative governments. FPTP is great for our party. Without it, we have no chance of winning in 2015.

The campaign for AV should be about making the voting system fairer, not about assessing how it will affect our party and voting tactically.

Petty and unnecessary tribalism won’t win this referendum.

That AV might benefit Labour should not be the deciding factor (although we are talking about a fairly marginal change to Labour’s situation in any case).

As Éoin Clarke points out this system freezes out parties smaller than the Lib Dems. It is not a system of proportional representation, but an attempt to lock in a three party system. The only party that significantly benefits is the Lib Dems.

(BTW Éoin Oldham is just north of Manchester.)

[...] on Left Foot Forward there is a paper by a Dr Matt Qvortrup arguing that the introduction of AV would help Labour and [...]

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

[...] http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/12/labours-no-brainer-case-to-campaign-for-av/ This entry was posted in Update. Bookmark the permalink. ← Blood Donation – Shortage LikeBe the first to like this post. [...]

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

The real issue is not AV for the Commons, but a wholly elected upper house using a PR system. How many other true democracies have a second chamber where control resides with the appointees of recent Prime Ministers?

I am surprised people are speculating about the intentions of Green and UKIP voters. A basic form of research would show that the Green Party conference confirmed that they would join the Yes campaign.

With regards to UKIP, the leader of the party seems to be all for it, so how anyone can assume that Green and UKIP voters would vote no is beyond me.

With regards to NI politics, when did the SDLP stop being a
” MAJOR PARTY ” ?

Mark Durkan describes FPTP as encouraging Sectarian voting patterns.

As a member of the Greens I would just like to point out that the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW) and the Scottish Green Party have both joined the campaign for the Alternative Vote. An overwhelming vote was passed at the GPEW Autumn conference to support the campaign and a similar motion at the Scots Greens conference.

Greens have been some of the most avid supporters of AV. But the motion we passed at GPEW conference was telling. We made no mention of the potential benefits to ourselves: instead it simply stated the benefits to the voters – no more tactical voting, majority support and reduction of safe seats. We back AV because we think it is a fairer system: not because of a partisan hope that we will win out from it.

Even if Labour backed AV just because it thought it would win more seats then I would of course still welcome them warmly to the campaign; so I welcome the Labour YES! campaign. But I would think less of the party if it just backed it on narrow self-interest.

Labour has a chance to redeem itself in the eyes of reformers whom it has betrayed so many times by promising referendums on proportional systems. We waited 13 long years watching report after report and commission after commission. I think I speak for most reformers when I say we are sick of waiting.

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

William, I am totally opposed to an elected second chamber; I think we should get rid of the remaining harreditary peers, but the problem with an elected second chamber is that this would introduce party politics in to the situation, and thus damage the chamber’s role as a revising chamber.

At any rate, on this, Will, would it be possible to make predictions for this based on the government’s gerrymandering of constituency boundries? Has any attempt been made in this study to look at the possible permutations of that?

“Had Livingstone only secured second preferences from 00.4 percent of the voters (11,182) he would have beaten Boris Johnson.” from Dr Matt Qvortrup’s report.
This looks like a mistake since Johnson won by about 140,000. Perhaps if full AV was used (not the Supplementary Vote) then third and further preferences would have led to a closer result. Is that the point Dr Qvortrup is trying to make?

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

RT @leftfootfwd: http://bit.ly/gRBGAo – Labour would have won more seats at every general election since 97 under AV!

RT @leftfootfwd: http://bit.ly/gRBGAo – Labour would have won more seats at every general election since 97 under AV!

I would also like to point out that the Alliance and SDLP in Northern Ireland are both backing AV. See here: http://www.yestofairervotes.org/pages/supporting-organisations

Never trust an academic who says that someone else’s views are based on ‘assumptions’, while their own views are a ‘solid piece of political science’. All science depends on a web of assumptions, and predicting the future particularly depends on them. Put simply, it’s impossible to predict what would happen under AV without this. Social science can inform and help us guess what would happen, but it cannot provide a definitive answer.

A good academic in the public sphere should make their assumptions clear, rather than spuriously belittling the contributions of others. And I say this without knowing anything about Dr Qvortrup, or the merits of his case. As an academic myself, though, I just find this kind of accusation cheapens the role of evidence in public debate, rather than enhancing it.

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

To the first comment..of course it won’t help labour if they’re unpopular…thankfully AV is a fair system that ensures, constituency by constituency, unpopular parties don’t get elected.

That said, despite Labour’s loss at the last election, I don’t think they’ve returned to being an unpopular party. I also don’t believe that this country has anything other than a slight left leaning bias over-all; I can’t believe for one second (based on voting figures and voting intentions post-may 2010) that people in seats where the Tories have 30-40% of the vote that either Labour or Lib Dems wouldn’t pick them up every time. Even where Tories have 40-49% I’d be fairly surprised to see the Tories pick it up.

With AV Labour will, coalition or not, be in power in 2015, at least that’s my belief.

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV: http://bit.ly/icErzf by @wdjstraw #Yes2AV

RT @leftfootfwd: Labour's 'no brainer' case to campaign for AV http://bit.ly/gRBGAo #YES2AV

I would not vote for anything that the lib dem tories have put forward. I will also be actively saying to everyone just say no. The reasons are that the lib dems are now tories and the tory leaning electorate will vote for them, as will the right wing lib dems. I do not want a coalition forming like the one that exists now, which will decimate the entire lives of the poor, the disabled, women and children and will also privatise the health service, which is happening now while we speak of av. I do not really care if this is an academically sound position or not. I only know that I am an angry voter who supports a uk which is fair and just and I hate to see that go down the plughole due to the unprincipled shower who are making decisions without any compassion for the consequences.

I found it hard to convince fellow members in my local constituency party. When I complained during a discussion of the LABOUR Leadership election that Ed Balls did not exercise his second choice, several members said that they had not done so either. In my opinion this is a no brainer. The further right the Tories and the LibDems go the more the use of second and third choices will benefit Labour. This is the main reason the Tories are totally opposed.

RT @labouryes: Labour’s ‘no brainer’ case to campaign for AV by @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/gqgVGy #labouryes #yes2av

@amymb here's part of the reason why as a Labour supporter you should be #yes2av – (on LeftFootForward) http://bit.ly/gqgVGy

I suspect all the data in this article is historical and largely irrelevant. Most polls put the LibDems on around 10% as most of their ‘progressive’ voters have fled elsewhere, mostly to Labour. The remaining LibDem voters are not the same as the people who voted in May (or 1997, 2001 or 2005): they’re either ‘true believers’ or right-leaners who can stomach the Coalition. As UK Polling report have compellingly argued, it’s just not credible that many will give their second vote to Labour. There may be good reasons for supporting AV, but it’s not going to help the Labour Party unless there is another seismic shift in UK politics.

@B3nB3ach No it doesn't see e.g. http://bit.ly/gqgVGy They're opposing it cos they're anti-pluralist political dinosaurs.

@OwenJones84 Pluralism & political choice the best chance. And btw did you see…http://bit.ly/gqgVGy

Why did he tell Tories the opposite?

http://s.coop/electoralreform

Is there a pro-av volunteer who would like to come and talk to Kentish Town Branch Labour party about the AV referendum. Ideally I’d like it to happen on 11th jan but it could be later. Please call me on 07 958 473 493

@tugsandtost Also good for Labour – http://bit.ly/ibRNJD . Boundary review but no AV = very happy Tories