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Left Foot Forward > Published by Will Straw, February 1st 2011 at 8:30 am

“Lacklustre” growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B

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In what will be seen as worsening economic news for the Government, the respected and independent National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have predicted “lacklustre” growth in 2011. They believe “there is a case for delaying some of the austerity programme”,  vindication of calls for the Chancellor to develop a ‘Plan B‘.

A press release from NIESR outlined that:

“Growth in 2011 will be lacklustre. The economy will expand by 1.5 per cent, barely higher than the 1.4 per cent expansion in 2010. Some of the output lost to the exceptionally poor weather in late 2010, when GDP fell by 0.5 per cent, will be regained in early 2011, but the average rate of growth across the two quarters will be just 0.1 per cent…

“Working out the right balance of macroeconomic policy in this environment involves making a judgement about the size of the output gap. We estimate that the economy is currently operating around 4 per cent below its potential. Given that margin of spare capacity, there is a case for promoting the recovery by postponing at least some of the austerity programme. The cost of delay would be acceptable because borrowing costs are currently low.

The 1.5 per cent rate is down from the 2.6 per cent that the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted in advance of George Osborne’s Budget. NIESR predict that inflation will be 3.8 per cent this year in contrast to the 2.8 per cent predicted by the OBR in November. They estimate that inflation will fall to 1.8 per cent in 2012 while growth will rise to 1.8 per cent.

In a separate release, NIESR outline that rising oil prices are “dulling the outlook for global growth”. But both the Euro Area and the American economy are expected to grow faster than the UK. The Euro Area is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2012 while the US is predicted to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2011 and 2.7 per cent in 2012.

Angela Eagle, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, told the Independent:

“This report is yet another warning sign to a Conservative Chancellor who seems to be in denial…

“It’s time for George Osborne to get his head out of the sand, look at the facts and rethink his reckless plan to take another £20 billion out of the economy in April on top of the VAT rise. He needs a plan B and he needs one quick.”

  • http://twitter.com/brokenofbritain/status/32356316852785152 Broken OfBritain

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B reports @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/32357603396820993 Will Straw

    "Lacklustre" growth predicted by leading think tank as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/peterward2008/status/32357758296662016 Peterward

    RT @wdjstraw: "Lacklustre" growth predicted by leading think tank as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/chrisgudgin/status/32357800965316608 Chris Gudgin

    RT @wdjstraw: "Lacklustre" growth predicted by leading think tank as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/32358895481528320 Will Straw

    @TimMontgomerie @ConHome @CPSThinkTank That's not what NIESR are saying this morning http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/americanliberal/status/32359472596787200 American Liberal

    Plan B, indeed! // RT @wdjstraw: "Lacklustre" growth predicted by leading think tank as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • Robert

    And Labour would have done what.

  • http://twitter.com/jblresearch/status/32366843754713090 jblresearch

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B reports @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/maughan/status/32370024463212544 Deborah Jones

    RT @wdjstraw: "Lacklustre" growth predicted by leading think tank as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/chris_goulden/status/32370094034124800 Chris Goulden

    RT @wdjstraw: @TimMontgomerie @ConHome @CPSThinkTank That's not what NIESR are saying this morning http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://diaryofabenefitscrounger.blogspot.com Sue Marsh

    Robert – Have you been trekking through Amazon? They would have carried on stimulating growth, supporting jobs and NOT CUTTING too soon.
    It was a simple argument, made endlessly, lets not pretend it never happened.
    Osborne and Brown BOTH bet everything on this – Brown “Don’t cut until economy recovers Osborne “Cut hard and fast and deep” Whoever turns out to be wrong has no choice WHATSOEVER but to die by the sword he chose.
    Since Brown managed growth of 3.5% when he left and Osborne has killed it all AND shrunk the economy by 0.5%, I’d say the argument was close to over wouldn’t you???
    If not, do go and read Wikipedia on the 30s depression and austerity.

  • http://twitter.com/suey2y/status/32372211486556160 Sue Marsh

    RT @wdjstraw: @TimMontgomerie @ConHome @CPSThinkTank That's not what NIESR are saying this morning http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/senorajuana/status/32379830578192384 Jane Howie

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • http://twitter.com/geoffreyawalker/status/32381293962469380 Geoff Walker

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B reports @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/falseecon/status/32381939860119552 False Economy

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • Syzygy

    You are absolutely correct Sue… and one can only conclude that these policies are about destroying the welfare state as quickly as possible, regardless of the impact on ordinary people’s lives, because they think that they may not get another chance. This is disaster politics … tie in the next government with 20y contracts and a shrunken economy. It won’t affect the rich. The wealth of the richest 1000 in the UK saw their wealth quadruple from 90bn to 400bn in spite of the banking crisis!

  • http://twitter.com/maczar12/status/32384760982544384 Maureen Czarnecki

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • http://twitter.com/mr_pukeko/status/32387922757947392 Matt Jeffs

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B reports @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/fuRX0X

  • http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/32391104447913984 Jill Hayward

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • Anon E Mouse

    Without exception, every single Labour government in this country has ended with the economy in ruins. Every one.

    It’s just this one has done it on a grander scale. By conning the public with the “End To Boom And Bust” lies, the countries most useless chancellor and never elected leader (either of Labour or the country), Gordon Brown has wrecked the future for our children’s children.

    Public services do not generate wealth. Borrowing huge sums for pet projects of Labour donors stinks from a party that says it has left wing leanings.

    The next election is four years away. This will all be forgotten by the public. The hopeless leader, Ed Miliband, only supported by 15% of his shadow cabinet and in place because of the union dinosaurs, will lead Labour to the next election defeat.

    If the party threw it’s hands up and said “We got it wrong – who knew?” people may believe them. Or blame Brown – the most unpopular PM since records began – that may work but this silly denial will keep Labour from even sniffing office for years…

  • http://twitter.com/noukcuts/status/32406048547536896 No UK Shock Doctrine

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • http://twitter.com/adamvanner/status/32406497539399681 Adam Vanner

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • http://twitter.com/arbolioto/status/32406894509297664 Pabs

    RT @FalseEcon: RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B http://bit.ly/dRx8aX

  • http://twitter.com/jodatu/status/32524561685676032 John Turner

    RT @leftfootfwd: "Lacklustre" growth predicted as Osborne told to develop Plan B reports @wdjstraw http://bit.ly/fuRX0X