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Sustainable Economy > Published by Matthew Pitt, May 25th 2011 at 7:27 pm

OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep

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Just as President Obama failed to endorse the coalition’s deficit reduction plans today, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is starting to come round to Labour’s view of chancellor Osborne’s cuts: they are too fast and too deep. The highly anticipated Economic Outlook, out today, warns that GDP growth figures for the UK are looking increasingly bleak.

After months of supporting the drastic and ruthless cuts, the OECD has had to admit they may be too much for the recovering economy.

United-Kingdom-demand-and-output-OECD-Economic-Outlook-25-05-11
For 2011, it has now downgraded its UK growth outlook from 1.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent and for 2012 from 2 per cent to 1.8 per cent, which is 0.3 per cent and a whopping 0.7 per cent lower than the OBR’s forecasts respectively.

On the same day as our hopes were dashed of an upward correction of Q1 economic growth, the chief economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, warned the UK it may have to consider slowing down the pace of cuts if the UK economy continues to lag behind that of Germany, France and the aggregate of the eurozone.

This is especially worrying in light of the economy having flatlined over the last six months before the majority of cuts and tax rises set in. With no growth and a predicted continued rise in unemployment, the government will be spending more on benefits and will receive less in tax revenues as a result.

We are entering a devilish circle of low growth leading to higher borrowing, resulting in more cuts to meet the deficit target, which again brings about lower growth and so on.

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls underlined this today, saying:

“Slow growth and more people out of work and on benefits will make it harder to get the deficit down.”

Although the OECD still maintains its overall support for George Osborne’s fiscal consolidation, it is warning that he:

“…can slow down the pace over the next quarters if things turn out to be weaker than expected.”

Mr Osborne knows full well, however, that any gear change in his cuts programme will be seen by the public as the beginning of an alternative approach to the deficit – a Plan B.

Adding to Osborne’s woes is the expectation by the OECD that the Bank of England will have to increase interest rates by 50 basis points to 1 per cent towards the end of 2011 and then to 2.25 per cent in 2012 due to heightened inflation expectations. Being overly reliant on a loose monetary policy, the planned cuts will therefore have an increasing downside effect on the economy once borrowing costs for businesses and individuals rise.

Osborne’s allies, standing on the side of excessive cuts, are beginning to wobble in the midst of updated gloomy economic outlooks. It is not only him, however, that stands on shaky ground – it is also the future of our economy.

Perhaps he should therefore consider the analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in its Green Budget for 2011, that Labour’s March 2010 budget under Alistair Darling would have returned the UK’s public finances to a sustainable position.

Admittedly, Labour still needs to propose what it would do in detail, but the right wing shrieks that there is no alternative are rapidly turning into a wimpy whisper.

  • http://twitter.com/adamramsay/status/73456199483404288 AdamRamsay

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/northerntuc/status/73456411308343297 Northern TUC

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/brianfmoylan/status/73456587720753152 Brian Moylan

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep http://t.co/mGMejPZ #ukpolitics #economy

  • http://twitter.com/yorkierosie/status/73456943280291840 yorkierosie

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/greenleftie/status/73457164819251200 Michael Bater

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep http://t.co/nL6XcJl

  • http://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/73461645749391361 Grahame Morris

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/7kZLwoF report via @leftfootfwd #Osborneconomics

  • http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/73467368831057920 Michael

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://bit.ly/iZlkZY

  • http://twitter.com/itsmotherswork/status/73471348910985216 Itsmotherswork

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73472727914266624 Jill Hayward

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • http://twitter.com/leslie1922/status/73473605425565697 Les

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • Johnnydub

    Well there’s just one problem with your analysis – there haven’t been any cuts yet. Cash spending is higher now than it ever was under Labour.

    But the real kicker is coming. Our debt rating is going to get mullered.

    Now please don’t take this as an anti-Conservative rant. You lefties still don’t want to acknowledge just how badly Labour screwed the country up – but if blaming the “nasty” tories keeps you warm at night – knock yourselves out.

  • Ed’s Talking Balls

    I suppose running with the headline ‘OECD still maintains its overall support for George Osborne’s fiscal consolidation’ (a direct quotation from your article, incidentally) wouldn’t have had the desired effect.

  • http://twitter.com/scriptrix/status/73478148985061377 Hannah

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • http://twitter.com/nulabournemesis/status/73484044486189057 Νέα Νέμεσις Εργασίας

    RT @leftfootfwd "OECD still maintains its overall support for George Osborne’s fiscal consolidation" http://bit.ly/mJeui9

  • http://twitter.com/stillhavehopes/status/73486450825510912 Hides Name

    RT @leftfootfwd "OECD still maintains its overall support for George Osborne’s fiscal consolida.what bunch of ecojokers http://bit.ly/mJeui9

  • http://twitter.com/janebryngwyn/status/73487409765023744 Jane Davidson

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://www.tmmblog.co.uk Cahal

    Erm, there have been cuts (or more broadly, austerity measures). There were £6bn last year. There has been the VAT rise, duty rises and the NI rise, and the ‘proper’ fiscal consolidation began in April. Looking at it in nominal terms is useless, at least look at it in real terms. Also bear in mind the horrendous effect austerity has had on confidence (which means business aren’t investing): http://bit.ly/jQgIz5

    If you genuinely believe that Labour bankrupted the country, please read here:

    http://www.tmmblog.co.uk/?p=1627 & http://extranea.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/the-truth-about-the-uk-deficit/

    If there had been a problem, bond yields would have been rising. They never were, not before Osborne’s budget and neither did they fall significantly after it. ‘Deficit denier’ is nice alliteration, but it is economically meaningless.

  • http://twitter.com/zephleppard/status/73491662445346816 James Leppard

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/7kZLwoF report via @leftfootfwd #Osborneconomics

  • http://twitter.com/frances_coppola/status/73492543496654848 Frances Coppola

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73492906446565376 Jill Hayward

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/7kZLwoF report via @leftfootfwd #Osborneconomics

  • http://twitter.com/andy_s_64/status/73494178788683776 Andy S

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/falseecon/status/73496388863934464 False Economy

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://twitter.com/artuncut/status/73496561023336448 artuncut

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://twitter.com/beccalamjig/status/73496595068485632 Becca Lamont Jiggens

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • http://twitter.com/bristolukuncut/status/73497247886737408 Bristol UKUncut

    RT @FalseEcon RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://twitter.com/zzigggyyy/status/73497337598709760 Ziggy Stardust

    RT @FalseEcon RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • John Jackson

    “You lefties still don’t want to acknowledge just how badly Labour screwed the country up – but if blaming the “nasty” tories keeps you warm at night – knock yourselves out.” Comment by Johnnydub on May 25, 2011 at 7:51 pm

    The reason why ‘lefties’ – or for that matter, any unbiased and educated observer – keep denouncing mendacious Tory propaganda (which you have clearly swallowed hook, line and sinker !) regarding the defecit is quite obvious: we are intelligent enough to realise that the GLOBAL economic crisis was caused by arrogant, amoral, unethical, avaricious, selfish neo-con TORY-boys in the financal services sector who gorged themselves at the temple of mammon with absolutely no concern for the consequences !
    “Nasty” – that’s not nearly a strong enough adjective !!

  • William

    ‘Labour still needs to propose what it would do in detail’. Exports up, the real cuts to come,a return to 2 percent growth in 2014,half a million public sector non jobs about to disappear,just like 1982 when 15 years of increasing living standards began,to be met with the arguments of the intellect of Foot , then Kinnock.Good luck, boys.

  • http://twitter.com/yrotitna/status/73499927254286336 Juan Voet

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/73503019244851200 George Eaton

    OECD chief economist warns that Osborne may need to "slow down the pace of spending cuts" http://bit.ly/mzsYfx

  • http://twitter.com/brinning/status/73503117152497665 James Brinning

    OECD chief economist warns that Osborne may need to "slow down the pace of spending cuts" http://bit.ly/mzsYfx

  • 13eastie

    First you put your own words into the mouth of the OECD, then you “support” it with a quote from Ed Balls.

    More fabricated-evidence-based blogging from LFF.

  • http://twitter.com/pareayh/status/73505191583944704 paurina

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • John Jackson

    “You lefties still don’t want to acknowledge just how badly Labour screwed the country up – but if blaming the “nasty” tories keeps you warm at night – knock yourselves out.” – Comment by Johnnydub on May 25, 2011 at 7:51 pm

    The reason ‘lefties’ – or for that matter, any free thinking, educated sentient human being – insist on denouncing Tory propaganda (which you have clearly swallowed hook, line and sinker) is obvious: we are intelligent enough to realise that the GLOBAL economic crisis was caused by the unethical activities of avaricious and amoral neo-con TORY-boys in the financial services industry who gorged themselves at the temple of mammon with absolutely no regard or concern for the consequences of their actions ! Gordon Brown has been internationally praised for his decisive action which prevented the complete meltdown of the international financial system – how different from the small-minded and petty ‘party before nation’ actions of David Cam-moron in refusing to recommend him for the IMF job !
    “Nasty”; that particular adjective is not nearly strong enough !!

  • http://twitter.com/itsmotherswork/status/73506377716342784 Itsmotherswork

    OECD chief economist warns that Osborne may need to "slow down the pace of spending cuts" http://bit.ly/mzsYfx

  • http://twitter.com/pareayh/status/73506641659691008 paurina

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 reports @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/sdc1964/status/73508376415444993 Steve Collinson

    OECD chief economist warns that Osborne may need to "slow down the pace of spending cuts" http://bit.ly/mzsYfx

  • John Jackson

    “just like 1982 when 15 years of increasing living standards began” Comment by William on May 25, 2011 at 9:21 pm

    Just a reminder to those of you with short memories and/or rose-tinted glasses: The last Conservative administration brought us: 2 NATIONAL recessions, 3 million unemployed, 15% mortgage rates, 18 month waiting times for serious operations, crumbling school buildings without enough books for children, the poll-tax (that saw little old ladies in council flats receiving higher bills than a Duke in his stately home !!), and Tory ministers taking ‘cash in brown paper bags’ for asking questions in parliament !
    And then of course they sold: British Gas, The National Grid, British Telecom, The Water Companies, British Rail and our Oil Reserves – ALL OF WHICH BELONGED TO US !!
    “Increasing living standards” ?? Don’t make me laugh !!

  • http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73510057265991680 Jill Hayward

    OECD chief economist warns that Osborne may need to "slow down the pace of spending cuts" http://bit.ly/mzsYfx

  • William

    Mr.Jackson, I seem to remember the tories won in 1979,1983,1987,and 1992.What do you think of democracy?

  • Matthew Pitt

    Johnnydub, there is one admission to make on you ‘righties’: the way the Tories portrayed the economic circumstances as being the result of out-of-control public spending worked a treat. This may partly be due to Labour being pre-occupied with the Leadership contest at that time! Nonetheless, it was caused, as no independent reputable economist had denied, by a financial system that was based on greed, greed and greed.

    Yes, Labour should have done more to regulate the system, no doubt. Hands up, that was a mistake which Labour acknowledges. To however swallow Osborne’s smokescreen that this whole mess was caused by Labour’s fiscal policies, behind which he is running an ideological cuts to the size of the state, is a belief not based on fact.

    We are hearing more concerned voices about the direction of the economy. I hope they and I am wrong, and this country experiences high growth over the following years. But the downward revisions by think tanks, international organisations and the OBR all point in one direction: failure.

  • 13eastie

    @8

    Unburied corpses (and mass burial at sea proposed for all)
    The Austin Maxi, Morris Marina, Leyland Princess (barely exported beyond the county of manufacture)
    The General Post Office (still using rotary-dial phones 20 years after the US had push-button DTMF phones, expect broadband some time after 2020)
    NHS hospitals on strike (emergency admissions only)
    Landfill in Leicester Square (tourist centre of the world’s most visited city)
    The National Grid and it’s 3-day week (i.e. compulsory 40% unemployment, courtesy of the NUM)
    24% inflation (savings shrinking by half every 3 years)
    Begging from the IMF (£2.3b in total – by 2010 Darling was borrowing this much every week)
    “Crisis? What crisis?” – The Sun
    The SNP throwing the British Govt out of office

    HOW ARE THOSE ROSE-TINTED SPECS WORKING OUT FOR YOU?

  • http://twitter.com/booksurfer/status/73531039787646976 Martyn

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://twitter.com/legodaddy/status/73533334998892544 LegoDaddy

    “@TheRightArticle: OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep – http://t.co/Lln00XM”
    Osborne is a Halfwit.

  • Ed’s Talking Balls

    Matthew,

    Yes, any observer with a brain cell would admit that the global financial crisis affected the UK terribly, as it did with so many other countries. But that person with a brain cell would also point out that the UK was affected worse than others (and wonder why…), would note that Labour ran up budget deficits during boom years (and wonder why…) and would point out that those in power cannot wail about a system which they presided over and reaped the benefits from, in the shape of massive tax receipts and continuous growth.

    I know that you and many others would like people to forget those facts, but personally I don’t think they will in a hurry.

    And John Jackson, I’m not sure it’s wise to play the game of listing governmental failures. As 13eastie shows above, Labour doesn’t emerge with any credit. In any case, I do feel the short list above is charitable!

  • http://twitter.com/maxlawsontin/status/73668320301293568 max lawson

    RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://t.co/MfVaEei #falseeconomy

  • http://socialisteconomicbulletin.blogspot.com/ Michael Burke

    12. ” that person with a brain cell would also point out that the UK was affected worse than others”

    Not true. Of 29 countries monitord by Eurostat, 12 had deeper recessions than Britain, includng Japan, Italy, Ireland, Finland, Denmark, Hungary and Sweden.

    What they all have in common is the absence of any government measures to support economic recovery. Sweden reversed that, and grew by 5.5% in 2010.

    Perhaps a sole brain call is insufficient?

  • Ed’s Talking Balls

    If you read what I said you will realise that I didn’t claim the UK was affected worse than ALL others. I simply said that the UK was affected worse than others. This claim is verified by what you wrote above, as 17 of the 29 countries you referred to did not have deeper recessions than the UK.

    Hence you are incorrect to assert that what I said is ‘not true’. It is perfectly true, and to deny that would suggest that you lack that elusive brain cell.

  • http://twitter.com/artuncut/status/73680506599915520 artuncut

    OECD starts to get concerned about speed of cuts http://bit.ly/mytQAh

  • http://twitter.com/mpittparliament/status/73689564023242752 matthew pitt

    Read my article on OECD and Ozzy RT @leftfootfwd: OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep http://t.co/CB6qLTZ

  • Johnnydub

    OK.. It’s the bankers fault…

    Except – Australia and Canada came through the banking crisis without any issues.. why?

    Effective regulation – they didn’t have a fool with a degree is Scottish Marxism or whatever tinkering with their regulation systems.. The US is totally corrupt I will acknowledge, but your lot seemed to like Fred Goodwin et al just fine…

    Anyway that’s the past.

    So the bankers caused a recession – agreed. Labour built an economy that couldn’t withstand one.

    So again blame the nakers, Tories whatever. But the majority of people in this country know different.

    And take note of Labour’s preformance in Scotland revenmtly. If your only policy is to go “Waaah, nasty tories etc.” you’ll get hammered in the polls…

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/05/pier-carlo-padoan-oecd-george-osborne-slow-down-pace-spending-cuts/ OECD chief economist tells Osborne: “Slow down the pace of spending cuts” | Left Foot Forward

    [...] on from my article yesterday, the Times (£) and the Financial Times (£) have now published interviews with the Organisation [...]

  • Mathew

    Johnnydub

    Just one problem with your primary school level rant. The Tories wanted even less Regulation.

    Education, it’s what you need.

  • jsam

    Canada’s banks are a sleepy cozy club of five. Why take risks? Did American and British bankers cash in? Do bears defecate near foliage? But glad to see even the most Toryish acclaiming better regulation. If we had a maximum wage it’d help.

  • scandalousbill

    Johnnydub,

    You ask:

    “Except – Australia and Canada came through the banking crisis without any issues.. why?”

    Both Canadian and Australian economies differ from the UK economy in that there is a high proportion of Natural resource and commodities as the base of their economies. High commodity resource, and energy prices, (e.g. the mining boom in Australia, Tar Sands Oil in Canada) did more to offset the impacts of the Global Recession than did the policies implemented by either government.

  • BenM

    The unthinking Tory trolls – Eds Talking Balls; 13 eastie and Johnny Dub – must have choked on their cornflakes when Obama said this yesterday:

    “A financial crisis that began on Wall Street infected nearly every continent”

    Whu-? The financial crisis started in Wall Street?! (under another mad rightwing fool, Geroge W Bush).

    Tory propaganda blames it on Gordon Brown! Who’s telling the truth? I’ll give you a clue – it’s the POTUS, not the useless Tory Party and its shills.

  • Johnnydub

    OK.. Let’s have some reality here… RBS overextended itself massively…. Northern Rock and Halifax built business models that couldn’t withstand a change in the availability of wholesale finance… Dunfermline Business society?????

    Yes the US bubble popped the cheap thoughtless money flows.. The UK banks in question not having a resilient model did for them – when was the last time a UK bank went pop before.? In the thirties… So why didn’t any go under during the great Maggie driven liberalisation.? Because they were properly regulated… note I said properly not extensively etc..

    Look Gordon said “we didn’t appreciate how interconnected the banks were” – well OK… so if you don’t understand it why did you break what was previously working? Because he was an egotistical moron that’s why..

    As for Obama’s statement – I agree the banks caused a recession. But you’re ignoring the larger point.

    Brown loved being lauded as a model of fiscal propriety, when in reality he was pissing money up a wall, money that wasn’t really earned, it was bubble money

    When the bubble popped (even though Gordon had hubristically claimed he’d ended “Boom and bust”- that just confirmed he was a moron) revenues fell to a more realistic level and a massive fiscal gap opened up.

    Labour just have to have more of a policy position that saying cut slower.

    Can you not see the writing on the wall? If our credit rating gets downgraded we have to pay more debt interest and it gets harder to sell our gilts. So what you might say.. Well one outcome is that the government has much less money to pay on public services and another is that interest rates will have to go up and fairly sharply.. No right now one of the biggest things propping up consumption and the economy is the spending power that people with mortgages have because rates are so low. Take that out of the economy and a big recession ensues…

    The problem is again one of interconnectedness. The Labour policy says tot he rest of the world that we’re wouldn’t be serious about getting our economy in balance. And as they hold the gilts and buy the gilts they’re in a position to do something about it…

    I’m not a “heartless bastard tory” my parents need healthcare, the kids in my family need education etc. You can’t provide that if you bankrupt the economy. And Labour in their last two periods in power are 2 for 2 in doing exactly that.

  • Ed’s Talking Balls

    BenM,

    I won’t retaliate by calling you a member of the unthinking left, for that would imply that there is a thinking left.

    Remind me again just why it is prudent for a government to run up deficits in a boom…

  • http://twitter.com/myinfamy/status/75901232346181632 Daniel Pitt

    OECD comes round to the view Osborne's cuts are too fast and too deep: http://bit.ly/mJeui9 #ConDemNation