OECD comes round to the view Osborne’s cuts are too fast and too deep
Just as President Obama failed to endorse the coalition’s deficit reduction plans today, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is starting to come round to Labour’s view of chancellor Osborne’s cuts: they are too fast and too deep. The highly anticipated Economic Outlook, out today, warns that GDP growth figures for the UK are looking increasingly bleak.
After months of supporting the drastic and ruthless cuts, the OECD has had to admit they may be too much for the recovering economy.

For 2011, it has now downgraded its UK growth outlook from 1.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent and for 2012 from 2 per cent to 1.8 per cent, which is 0.3 per cent and a whopping 0.7 per cent lower than the OBR’s forecasts respectively.
On the same day as our hopes were dashed of an upward correction of Q1 economic growth, the chief economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, warned the UK it may have to consider slowing down the pace of cuts if the UK economy continues to lag behind that of Germany, France and the aggregate of the eurozone.
This is especially worrying in light of the economy having flatlined over the last six months before the majority of cuts and tax rises set in. With no growth and a predicted continued rise in unemployment, the government will be spending more on benefits and will receive less in tax revenues as a result.
We are entering a devilish circle of low growth leading to higher borrowing, resulting in more cuts to meet the deficit target, which again brings about lower growth and so on.
Shadow chancellor Ed Balls underlined this today, saying:
“Slow growth and more people out of work and on benefits will make it harder to get the deficit down.”
Although the OECD still maintains its overall support for George Osborne’s fiscal consolidation, it is warning that he:
“…can slow down the pace over the next quarters if things turn out to be weaker than expected.”
Mr Osborne knows full well, however, that any gear change in his cuts programme will be seen by the public as the beginning of an alternative approach to the deficit – a Plan B.
Adding to Osborne’s woes is the expectation by the OECD that the Bank of England will have to increase interest rates by 50 basis points to 1 per cent towards the end of 2011 and then to 2.25 per cent in 2012 due to heightened inflation expectations. Being overly reliant on a loose monetary policy, the planned cuts will therefore have an increasing downside effect on the economy once borrowing costs for businesses and individuals rise.
Osborne’s allies, standing on the side of excessive cuts, are beginning to wobble in the midst of updated gloomy economic outlooks. It is not only him, however, that stands on shaky ground – it is also the future of our economy.
Perhaps he should therefore consider the analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in its Green Budget for 2011, that Labour’s March 2010 budget under Alistair Darling would have returned the UK’s public finances to a sustainable position.
Admittedly, Labour still needs to propose what it would do in detail, but the right wing shrieks that there is no alternative are rapidly turning into a wimpy whisper.
-
http://twitter.com/adamramsay/status/73456199483404288 AdamRamsay
-
http://twitter.com/northerntuc/status/73456411308343297 Northern TUC
-
http://twitter.com/brianfmoylan/status/73456587720753152 Brian Moylan
-
http://twitter.com/yorkierosie/status/73456943280291840 yorkierosie
-
http://twitter.com/greenleftie/status/73457164819251200 Michael Bater
-
http://twitter.com/grahamemorris/status/73461645749391361 Grahame Morris
-
http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/73467368831057920 Michael
-
http://twitter.com/itsmotherswork/status/73471348910985216 Itsmotherswork
-
http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73472727914266624 Jill Hayward
-
http://twitter.com/leslie1922/status/73473605425565697 Les
-
Johnnydub
-
Ed’s Talking Balls
-
http://twitter.com/scriptrix/status/73478148985061377 Hannah
-
http://twitter.com/nulabournemesis/status/73484044486189057 Νέα Νέμεσις Εργασίας
-
http://twitter.com/stillhavehopes/status/73486450825510912 Hides Name
-
http://twitter.com/janebryngwyn/status/73487409765023744 Jane Davidson
-
http://www.tmmblog.co.uk Cahal
-
http://twitter.com/zephleppard/status/73491662445346816 James Leppard
-
http://twitter.com/frances_coppola/status/73492543496654848 Frances Coppola
-
http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73492906446565376 Jill Hayward
-
http://twitter.com/andy_s_64/status/73494178788683776 Andy S
-
http://twitter.com/falseecon/status/73496388863934464 False Economy
-
http://twitter.com/artuncut/status/73496561023336448 artuncut
-
http://twitter.com/beccalamjig/status/73496595068485632 Becca Lamont Jiggens
-
http://twitter.com/bristolukuncut/status/73497247886737408 Bristol UKUncut
-
http://twitter.com/zzigggyyy/status/73497337598709760 Ziggy Stardust
-
John Jackson
-
William
-
http://twitter.com/yrotitna/status/73499927254286336 Juan Voet
-
http://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/73503019244851200 George Eaton
-
http://twitter.com/brinning/status/73503117152497665 James Brinning
-
13eastie
-
http://twitter.com/pareayh/status/73505191583944704 paurina
-
John Jackson
-
http://twitter.com/itsmotherswork/status/73506377716342784 Itsmotherswork
-
http://twitter.com/pareayh/status/73506641659691008 paurina
-
http://twitter.com/sdc1964/status/73508376415444993 Steve Collinson
-
John Jackson
-
http://twitter.com/frdragonspouse/status/73510057265991680 Jill Hayward
-
William
-
Matthew Pitt
-
13eastie
-
http://twitter.com/booksurfer/status/73531039787646976 Martyn
-
http://twitter.com/legodaddy/status/73533334998892544 LegoDaddy
-
Ed’s Talking Balls
-
http://twitter.com/maxlawsontin/status/73668320301293568 max lawson
-
http://socialisteconomicbulletin.blogspot.com/ Michael Burke
-
Ed’s Talking Balls
-
http://twitter.com/artuncut/status/73680506599915520 artuncut
-
http://twitter.com/mpittparliament/status/73689564023242752 matthew pitt
-
Johnnydub
-
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/05/pier-carlo-padoan-oecd-george-osborne-slow-down-pace-spending-cuts/ OECD chief economist tells Osborne: “Slow down the pace of spending cuts” | Left Foot Forward
-
Mathew
-
jsam
-
scandalousbill
-
BenM
-
Johnnydub
-
Ed’s Talking Balls
-
http://twitter.com/myinfamy/status/75901232346181632 Daniel Pitt
YouGov Tracker
ToUChstone Economic Tracker
George’s Marvellous Deficit Calculator
Most read this week
- Week Outside Westminster: Is Cameron a separatist sleeper-cell?
- "You've never had it so good" has never been so wrong: Review of The Cost of Inequality
- Tory voters trust BMA and co. over Cameron and Lansley on the NHS
- German superunion to begin negotiating for 6.5 per cent wage increase
- Building social housing would cut the housing benefit bill three times faster than a cap
Best of the web
Top issues
Left Foot Facebook
Awards & Rankings
Archive
Tag Cloud
Domestic Progressives
- A Thousand Cuts
- Alastair Campbell
- Andrew Gibson's Blog
- Anthony Painter
- Ayes To The Left
- Blackburn Labour Party
- Chartist
- Conor's Commentary
- Dave's Part
- Diary of a Benefit Scrounger
- Duncan's Economic Blog
- Follow my leaders
- Freemania
- Full Fact
- Go Fourth
- Good Animal / Bad Animal
- Guardian Politics blog
- Harry's Place
- Hopi Sen
- Institute for Government
- Intelligence Squared
- Labour and Capital
- Labour Home
- Labour List
- LabourHome
- Left Central
- Lib-Con Trick
- Liberal Conspiracy
- Liberal Democrat Voice
- LSE politics blog
- Luke's blog
- Mark Thompson Blog
- Matthew Taylor's blog
- Max Atkinson's blog
- Migrants' Rights Network
- New Statesman: free speech
- Next Left
- Nick Pearce
- OurKingdom
- Patrick Bury's blog
- Policy Critical
- Political Reboot
- Political Scrapbook
- Progress
- Red Brick
- RSA Projects
- Runnymede Trust
- Rupa Huq's Blog
- Sadie's Tavern
- Save EMA
- Shamik Das
- Slinger blog
- Tank the Tories
- Tax Research UK
- The Centre Left
- The Green Benches
- The Novocastrian
- This is my truth
- Tim McLoughlin
- Tom Harris MP
- Tom Watson MP
- Touchstone
- Touchstone TUC blog
- Young Fabians Blog







