278 views
Sustainable Economy > Published by Matthew Pitt, May 24th 2011 at 9:34 am

Osborne’s weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis

Print Friendly

There are two main reasons why the banks will not be adequately reformed to ensure the end of the “too big to fail” phenomena. One is the reluctance of the international community; the other is the reluctance of Mr Osborne himself.

George-Osborne-corpseWhile the motives of the former are rather complex and multilayered, the latter is guided by one simple overarching objective: to maximise profits made from selling the public’s share in the UK banks before the next general election and thereby improve the chances of a re-election via tax breaks and a positive balance sheet.

Let me first take you back a few years: in the midst of the crumbling global financial system, the Labour government necessarily began investing billions of pounds into RBS and Lloyds in the name of heading off an economic collapse. As a result, the government ended up owning 70 per cent in RBS and 41 per cent in Lloyds.

At present, with the sluggish recovery and the over-enthusiastic cuts, the temptation for Mr Osborne to sell the taxpayers’ stake in the banks and flood the Treasury with money, instead of bringing in meaningful reform of the banking sector, is proving to be too great an opportunity to miss. This is because any substantive reform of the banking sector would not only have a downward effect on share prices but also the amount of money the Treasury could make through a step-by-step sell-off.

On the one hand therefore we have the issue of not allowing banks to hold the taxpayers hostage again and on the other there is a party-political interest for Osborne to maximise the value of the UK banks by giving them more or less free rein and then sell off the shares.

There is, however a large hurdle to be overcome before Mr Osborne can do this; namely, the report to be published this September by the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) on how to overcome the problem of banks being too interconnected, big and risk-loving.

Judging by the ICB’s disappointing interim report in April however, the authorities don’t seem to have much enthusiasm to restrict the banks’ desire for risky deals and big bonuses. There will be some sort of reform to placate the public’s anger, but it will be met with glee rather the gloom by the City, which was highlighted by its reaction last April.

This unwillingness to tinker with the banking sector is further underlined by the vagueness of Project Merlin, which today’s figures show is not on track to fulfil its obligation of greater lending to businesses, and the reluctance of the Tory-led government to extend the bank bonus tax.

Indeed, although the government “does not seek to pre-judge the [ICB’s] final recommendations”, it has been revealed by senior figures that Osborne is already planning the first stage of a massive sell-off of shares in RBS that would amount to £5bn in early 2012.

Adding to this, the institution that is in favour of boosting the value of public shares in the UK banks and is responsible for managing our stocks worth around £60bn (although this number fluctuates due to share price changes) is the UK Financial Investments (UKFI). The secondary objective of maintaining financial stability is undermined doubly by firstly being directly accountable to Osborne, and secondly remaining a highly opaque institution that leaves much to the imagination.

Perhaps you are now starting to see why Mr Osborne will almost certainly show great reluctance to be tough on regulating the fat cats in the City. The ICB’s report is expected of being too weak, the bank bonus tax is too little, Project Merlin is dangerously close to becoming a farce and the public shares are under the indirect control of Osborne.

Ultimately, it is not a matter of if, but when the next financial crisis will hit us. If we allow Mr Osborne to only do the minimum on banking reform at the cost of a short-term balance sheet boost before the general election, then we are fooling ourselves into believing that we will somehow survive the next crisis despite the City being the mirror-image of its former self.

  • http://twitter.com/badgerbrocks/status/72944136919056384 bryan

    RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis http://t.co/40Yhszl

  • http://twitter.com/drkmj/status/72944643557429248 DrKMJ

    RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/mpittparliament/status/72945118822404096 matthew pitt

    Read my piece on LFF: RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis http://t.co/xmZFrKI

  • http://twitter.com/william_bain/status/72947326691454976 William Bain

    Read my piece on LFF: RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis http://t.co/xmZFrKI

  • http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/72948638363561984 Michael

    Osborne’s weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis I Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/jC8MHm

  • http://twitter.com/salardeen/status/72950019308785665 salardeen

    Osborne’s weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis I Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/jC8MHm

  • http://twitter.com/salardeen/status/72951105419616256 salardeen

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/lesa50/status/72951511860260864 lesa

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/nhsspy/status/72954114446856192 Watching You

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/mattintheknow/status/72970101573419008 Matthew Thompson

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/crisisdigest/status/72977166647836673 World Crisis

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis – Left Foot Forward http://goo.gl/yi7wV

  • http://twitter.com/paulstpancras/status/72979838117486594 paulstpancras

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks sparking another banking crisis http://bit.ly/ii0mM9

  • http://twitter.com/liza_harding/status/72979980908380160 Liza Harding

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks sparking another banking crisis http://bit.ly/ii0mM9

  • Anon E Mouse

    Matthew Pitt – You say: “Ultimately, it is not a matter of if, but when the next financial crisis will hit us.”

    Wow. What a shame you weren’t available in the treasury when that unelected idiot Gordon Brown was running round telling people he had control of the economic cycle and single handedly ended “Boom and Bust”.

    Why don’t you write a piece illustrating your opinions on this matter and send it to the Labour Party because their deficit denial is staggering. I’m serious Matthew. You’ve shown more knowledge of economics in that one line than Labour did in thirteen years of government.

    Excellent stuff except there is as much chance of the body of this article happening as there was a double dip recession…

  • http://twitter.com/oneoflokis/status/72980340238585856 Liz K

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks sparking another banking crisis http://bit.ly/ii0mM9

  • http://twitter.com/brokenofbritain/status/72988610684657664 Broken OfBritain

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/thompson9100/status/72991902768705536 Dan Thompson

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: http://bit.ly/kSCz0Z writes @MPittParliament

  • http://twitter.com/marenavian/status/73037402771431424 Marena Vian

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis: Ultimately, it is not a matter of if, but … http://bit.ly/lZgP5r

  • http://www.positivemoney.org.uk Mira

    Our monetary system is based on credit or debt, and without constantly continuing issuance of debt, the whole thing falls apart. Our system of ‘fractional reserve banking’ gives commercial banks a licence to literally create money out of thin air – and then charge interest on the money they created. Fractional reserve banking is the cause of spiralling debt.

    A public campaign has started to end fractional reserve banking, and I recommend readers to look at the Positivemoney.org.uk website which explains further.

  • http://twitter.com/davidoorr/status/73436718673575936 David Orr

    RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis http://t.co/DuT5a6M

  • Richard

    “there is as much chance of the body of this article happening as there was a double dip recession”

    Not according to many leading economists wordwide, including Simon Johnson, one of the very few to predict the banking crisis. I have far greater faith in his judgement than that of a benefit scrounger who has nothing better to do all day than troll the web.

  • http://twitter.com/simondixontwitt/status/73897443057614848 Simon Dixon

    Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis | Left Foot Forward http://j.mp/jC8MHm

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/10/gordon-brown-global-progress-conference-madrid/ Gordon Brown: banking reform key to resolving eurozone crisis | Left Foot Forward

    [...] Osborne’s weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis – Matthew Pitt, May 24th [...]

  • http://twitter.com/dimitrikoveos/status/146923941146005505 Δημήτρης

    The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/uTNjlxur #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/genevieveflight/status/146925361186349056 Genevieve Flight

    The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/uTNjlxur #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/houseoftwitslab/status/146927482103275521 HouseOfTwitsLab

    RT @leftfootfwd The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/rG0cJYg1 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/houseoftwits/status/146927486175936512 House Of Twits

    RT @leftfootfwd The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/2oAlm3Um #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/altany/status/146928104303116288 Altany

    RT @leftfootfwd The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/rG0cJYg1 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/mr_pukeko/status/146932225903050752 Mr_Pukeko

    The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/uTNjlxur #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/poutingpou/status/146932256567595008 Kyron Hodgetts

    RT @leftfootfwd The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/2oAlm3Um #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/maznbaz23/status/146938088340463616 Marilyn Freeman

    RT @leftfootfwd: Osborne's weakness on banking reforms risks another financial crisis http://t.co/wYtGY3K6

  • http://twitter.com/jintyg51/status/146944071225720833 Janet Graham

    The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/uTNjlxur #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/shefanticuts/status/147031254737494016 Anti-Cuts Alliance

    The Tory led banking reforms are a sham at best and leaving us vulnerable to another collapse: http://t.co/uTNjlxur #PMQs