Clinton: UK’s austerity budget could mean deficit will increase

William – Absolutely agree. Where is this austerity everyone keeps banging on about and what happened to the double dip recession Will Straw was confidently predicting a year ago?

Well said Josh. It is important to keep these things in perspective.

I grow tired of people dealing in certainties where the economy is concerned. Simply, no-one, however well qualified, knows what is going to happen.

Bill Clinton provides a simple equation. Tax-dodger Osborne’s swingeing cuts and VAT-hike mean that People’s Earnings and spending power is rapidly decreasing. Tax Revenues fall accordingly, so that now The Treasury is desperately short of money. Tax-dodger Osborne is having to borrow up to £46 Billion more, for the Treasury, which also puts up the National Debt (Tory spin + “budget deficit”) by that amount. So don’t believe any Tory deficit lies! As earnings and private spending steadily decrease, company Sales Revenues will decrease (Except for export orders) reciprocally until the country goes bust. There are numerous clamours for Plan B, but Tax-dodger Osborne continues to hoard £1.6million that he owes to the Treasury and ignores everyone’s request. The Cameron regime want to bust , then and boom the economy on cheap-jack labour just as Thatcher and Major did. The ConDem government should be out on its arse before the current Political and Criminal Corruption investigations are finished.

One of the few genuine laugh out loud moments I’ve had while reading this blog, Leon. Even if you had the combined talents of Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek and John Maynard Keynes (which you clearly don’t), I wouldn’t trust you to predict the future. I suggest you market yourself as a clairvoyant, if you genuinely know what is going to happen. What will Friday’s Euromillions numbers be, by the way?

Inflation is not down to Tory policy. What simplistic nonsense.

Much of the UK is, was and forever shall be unaffordable to the poor. Much of the country is unaffordable to the moderately wealthy too. We don’t live in a utopia.

I only whine that Labour has cause or exacerbated a problem when it has. For example, running large budget deficits during a boom. Or trying to introduce ID cards against the popular will. Or hurting the poor through scrapping the 10p tax (etc…) The coalition will be responsible for its record on the economy come the next election. I will judge it then, observing economic performance in the meantime and maybe making cautious predictions on the way. I won’t, however, rush to judgment and deal in certainties one year into a term.

Dave,

You’re right. I commend you for a more nuanced approach and avoiding certainties: this is what prediction is all about. In terms of prediction, I’m encouraged by the trends in exports and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing, while employment figures have also been encouraging. Growth is weak and predictions are being downgraded (rather proving my point that even renowned economists don’t get in right most of the time, let alone all the time) but I remain optimistic that we will return to stronger growth and that double-dip doom-mongers will be proved wrong. Interest rates have remained low and inflation is my major concern. The Bank of England is treating its target as more of a vague hope.

I don’t disagree that we should strive towards correlation between hard work and reward. Wealth inequality, to such a degree as we see nowadays, is unhealthy. Yet I find any notion of equality of outcome anathema; equality of opportunity is what society is entitled to expect. One step in the right direction would be making it impossible or highly undesirable for buy-to-let barons hoard such a scarce resource as land. It is one of the greatest scourges of our time and really must be addressed. I am appalled that none of political parties give a toss about such an important issue.

I don’t think that what you said first time round was the same as Dave. You replied to my comment, which warned against dealing in certainties where future economic performance is concerned, by saying ‘What nonsense. It’s VERY easy to see the consequences of many actions.’ I thought you were disagreeing what I said. If, however, you were, like Dave, admitting that none of us can know for sure but can nonetheless make predictions, then we’re in agreement. I guess what I was railing against was some unthinking commentary on the left which would have us believe that a double-dip is a foregone conclusion. Patently nonsense. Given that the figures are so mixed and ‘Plan A’ is still in its (comparatively) early stages, it’s way too early to pass definitive judgment on economic performance, either way.

Neither do I think that my comment, which you quote, is ‘bullshit’. There are very few people in the world with the means to buy property in Belgravia, Kensington, Hampstead etc. Houses in such areas cost millions of pounds and it’s not simply the poor who can’t afford to live there. That’s not my ideal society, however. Nonetheless, I think it perfectly fair that some people can afford things others can’t. To the extent that that isn’t fair, well, I’m afraid that’s life.

I was under the impression that the OBR was independent. Sneer if you will, but I’m prepared to accept that it is, although I concede that its proximity to the Treasury (and other factors) give rise to suspicion. Still, even if its predictions were more optimistic than international ones, the IMF, OECD, etc were and are all supportive of government plans on deficit reduction and have all predicted growth. And I think that the economy is a little more complicated than you give it credit for: we live in a global economy (as Gordon Brown never tired of telling us, when seeking to deflect attention from domestic budget deficits) and so are affected by myriad global issues over which the Conservative Party has no influence.

Yes, I still defend government policies in a number of areas (chiefly education) but I never want to be partisan to the point of claiming black is white. When the government gets something wrong (NHS reform, treatment of circus animals and the ringfencing of the aid budget) I won’t defend it.

matthew fox – The clear glee you show that UK manufacturing fell in this country illustrates exactly why Labour and it’s activists care only for the tractor statistics in this country and deserve the kicking they are currently getting in the polls.

You’re right – of course I’m not pleased when working class people in this country lose their jobs due to a lack of manufacturing orders.

Obviously being the lickspittle you prove you are in most of your comments here, it means the plight of the workers is of little concern to you.

There used to be a time the Labour Party cared about the workers but your callous remarks against that particular demographic would indicate those days are long long gone.

Well done matthew fox….

Leon Wolfson – My party was Labour my whole life pre Brown. Lib Dem now FYI.

No one is dodging – it’s just we have different views on things like fairness clearly and you will twist, turn and spin like a washing machine to justify the unjustifiable Leon Wolfson.

matthew fox is a not so bright Labour lacky, who would swear black was white or vote for a monkey in a red shirt. The coalition government prays for people of his ilk in the way they thought heaven was on earth when the hopeless Ed Miliband was forced on the party by the union dinosaurs.

Me I’m a Charles Clarke or John Reid type of admirer and less of a Damian McBride or Gordon Brown fan and you sir, as usual, are ignoring the point about his glee at the flatlining economy or the past where Labour wouldn’t have knighted failed bankers and cared about ordinary workers…

matthew fox – You certainly haven’t hit any raw nerve with me fella.

All you’ve done (once again) is show how little you care for the working classes and how little you understand or appreciate the reasons we have a “Labour” political party in this country.

My remark of you being a “lickspittle” who’s only interested in tractor statistics is an insult – a particular left wing insult as it happens, although it may be at bit much for you to understand that.

You do the coalition government a great service with your attitude and it serves to remind people like myself that I made the right decision in not voting Labour at the last election.

Well done matthew fox…