DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward

The Department for Work and Pensions has acknowledged that one of the key statistics it has used to justify radical change to disability benefits ‘gives a distorted picture’.

One of the main ‘stylised facts’ that the DWP has used to make the case for aggressive reform of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) has been that the caseload increased by 30% over the last eight years- a phenomenon which a DWP source described as ‘inexplicable’.

Last year the Department’s use of this figure was challenged by the Broken of Britain. I analysed the underlying data for Left Foot Forward in February and came to similar conclusions, arguing that the Department’s failure to take obvious explanatory factors into account meant that the use of the 30% figure was misleading.

In particular I stressed the built-in growth of DLA receipt among people over retirement age (the ‘maturing’ of the system, an intended feature of its design) and demographic change, which accounted for more than half of the growth.

DWP has now repeated this analysis using more recent and detailed figures. These give a slightly lower overall increase of 29% to the DLA caseload from 2002/3 to 2010/11, but more importantly, DWP now accepts the need to take into account the factors it had previously neglected.

The department says:

‘There have been substantial increases in receipt per head among those aged 65 and over as a result of the ‘maturing’ of DLA. This distorts the overall picture of growth. [our italics]’.

Correcting for this factor reduces the figure to 23%. Correcting for demographic change reduces it further, to 16%.

The table shows how the growth in caseload breaks down between age groups, demographic change and change in rate of DLA receipt, comparing the Left Foot Forward estimates from February with DWP’s estimates.

Despite the differences in timeframe in the two analyses, the results are very similar: only 44-45% of the total increase remains once the factors we raised are taken into account.

It may be wondered why, if only 44% of the change remains after controlling for these factors, the rate of growth only falls from 29% to 16%. But the 16% figure is the growth rate for the under 65 caseload (controlling for demographic change), while the 44% figure is the share of total growth accounted for by under-65’s.

While it is welcome that the Department now recognises the inadequacies of its earlier statements on DLA caseload growth, the publication of this analysis at this late stage is a matter of concern, for two reasons.

The first is the stress the government has placed on the 30% figure as evidence of major flaws in the system requiring radical reform: the consultation document on DLA reform stated:

“In just eight years the numbers receiving DLA has [sic] increased by 30%. The complexity and subjectivity of the benefit has led to a wider application than was originally intended.”

With the Welfare Reform Bill having already passed its report stage in the Commons and due to go to the Lords in September, government surely needs to explain how the downward revision from 30% to 16% affects the case for its proposals.

The second reason for disquiet is this: government is engaged in radical cuts and reforms to disability benefits, including a reduction in caseload and expenditure by 20% against projections for 2016 and the abolition of DLA and its replacement with a new system, Personal Independence Payment.

Yet it now appears that prior to deciding on these ambitious projects, DWP failed to carry out the most rudimentary analysis of the changes in DLA caseload which reform was supposed to address.

The sort of analysis we published in February, and which DWP appears only now to have undertaken itself, represents a minimal requirement for any serious consideration of welfare reform.

The government would appear to have launched itself into a radical programme of change affecting millions of disabled people without troubling to understand the first thing about the benefit it claims to be reforming. One has to ask whether this sort of amateurishness would be tolerated in any other major area of government spending.

http://twitter.com/mijeroh/status/101695333653954561 Mijeroh Tialobi

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/paulstpancras/status/101695368005287936 paulstpancras

RT @leftfootfwd: #DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/isdancing/status/101695514856259584 Mabel Horrocks

RT @leftfootfwd: #DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/cllr_roxsie/status/101695649837363200 Roxanne Ellis

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/jamesmills1984/status/101695844616638465 James Mills

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/nhsspy/status/101695875855826945 Watching You

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/mardyoldgit/status/101696735751049216 Christine Pampling

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/houseoftwits/status/101696963564666882 House Of Twits

RT @leftfootfwd DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/hanlemic/status/101697655150886914 Michael Hanley

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/ldtuc/status/101698330169573376 L DTUC

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/govmanslaughter/status/101702344626012161 GOVManslaughter

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/carerwatch/status/101702665574166528 Rosemary

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101702871787118593 BendyGirl

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/brit_newsman/status/101703518087430145 ds

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/oneoffdave/status/101703524164972544 Dave McQuirk

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/govmanslaughter/status/101703720445812736 GOVManslaughter

@BrokenOfBritain: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/curmudgeonlyblu/status/101704409557377024 Blu

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/double_karma/status/101704566072016896 Double.Karma

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/chris1966/status/101704905890332672 Chris Linthwaite

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/a__rhodes/status/101705357562363904 Andrew Rhodes

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/alanroygbiv/status/101705814246567936 Alan Thomas

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/stuartgwhite/status/101705924095393792 Stuart White

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/IhB0otT
http://twitter.com/staceyuk/status/101705962913660930 StaceyUK

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/steveturner02/status/101705980542332928 steve turner

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/kloseali/status/101706283505303555 Alison Klose

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/salardeen/status/101706900734873601 salardeen

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/qLHqur
http://twitter.com/woolfiesmith/status/101707048235974656 Citizen K

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101707118930968576 BendyGirl

@carerwatch @wheresbenefit @Dpac http://bit.ly/qkHTvq DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/carerwatch/status/101707278595538944 Rosemary

@carerwatch @wheresbenefit @Dpac http://bit.ly/qkHTvq DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101707576542109696 BendyGirl

@patrickbutler @ianbirrell @ameliagentleman DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/southygirl1/status/101708108035923970 theresa jackson

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/idlevic/status/101708885991235587 Victoria

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/elainekirk/status/101709004123807746 Elaine Kirk

@carerwatch @wheresbenefit @Dpac http://bit.ly/qkHTvq DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/mikelesurf/status/101709554785583104 Mike Le-Surf

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/fizzyclare/status/101710015445991424 Clare Jordan

@carerwatch @wheresbenefit @Dpac http://bit.ly/qkHTvq DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101710178172420096 BendyGirl

@annebegg @Tanni_GT http://t.co/lHcSCBy DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101712042511183873 BendyGirl

@jimpknight http://t.co/lHcSCBy DWP admits dis reform based on dodgy figures PS, think your last tweet meant as DM?
http://twitter.com/mike128/status/101712115127169025 mike

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/wheelieslug/status/101712114615451650 André

RT: @BendyGirl RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/kirstyhalsey/status/101712260073926657 Kirsty Halsey

“@leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://t.co/2CWUOud : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform”
http://twitter.com/mike128/status/101713977473638400 mike

@leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://t.co/AXXG2L7 : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform”
http://twitter.com/louisebolotin/status/101718003548291073 Louise Bolotin

RT: @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101718088780759040 BendyGirl

@queeniejelly Most definitely will! Now, read this & have a happy dance! http://t.co/lHcSCBy Xx
http://twitter.com/sanabituranima/status/101718178132008963 Sanabitur Anima Mea

Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one would know http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/bigpawedbear/status/101718258780094464 big pawed bear

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/theuktoday/status/101718336945143808 Mike, England. UK

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/fizzyclare/status/101718439944667139 Clare Jordan

Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one would know http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101718486803415040 BendyGirl

@RhydianFonJames @iconicimagery @suey2y http://t.co/lHcSCBy Result!
http://twitter.com/jpofgwynedd/status/101718624900878336 J P

RT @TheSmallPlaces: RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy… http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/jontycampbell/status/101719065449594880 Jonty H. Campbell

RT @louisebolotin RT @BendyGirl #DWP admit to dodgy data use http://tinyurl.com/3f7bbvv #welfare #dla #disability #HaHaDay
http://twitter.com/aliceblundrland/status/101719201781256192 Alice in Blunderland

RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/jpofgwynedd/status/101719317455978497 J P

RT @fizzyclare: RT @BendyGirl: Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one w… http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/batsgirl/status/101720166584418305 Mary

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/extraditiongame/status/101720182896070657 Extradition Game

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/miss_sobriety/status/101720264538198016 Sobriety Kinkaid

Left Foot Forward reports: DWP is beginning to realise that people don't like it when your stats make no fucking sense: http://t.co/JpmKCug
http://twitter.com/naomi_jacobs/status/101720613567213568 Naomi Jacobs

RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://bit.ly/qkHTvq
http://twitter.com/lilwatchergirl/status/101720617400799232 Naomi

RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://bit.ly/qkHTvq
http://twitter.com/fateeore/status/101720745553567744 jeremy young

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101721250128343040 BendyGirl

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/catandbella/status/101721270936272896 Cat Hudson

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/margojmilne/status/101721380583768065 Margo Milne

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/fateeore/status/101721458924994561 jeremy young

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/matthewdoye/status/101722439909769217 Matthew Doye

RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://bit.ly/qkHTvq
http://twitter.com/double_karma/status/101722556398190592 Double.Karma

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/sirenofbrixton/status/101722610727006208 Siren of Brixton

work & pensions uses dodgy data to justify cuts to disability benefits http://t.co/mA4M65H wish we could go all guy Fawkes on the lot
http://twitter.com/getcutiedresses/status/101722823768285184 fiona england

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/anonymoosh/status/101723078693896192 Ceehaitch

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/daveneenhan/status/101723469552697344 dave neenhan

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/morganscorpion/status/101723768669483008 Julia Morgan

http://t.co/rEb6fji DWP told lies in order to rob the disabled.
http://twitter.com/gplondon/status/101723927692320768 Geoffrey Pearson

Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one would know http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://masondixonautistic.blogspot.com Mason Dixon, Autistic

Can I just point out that the report itself was published on Monday, but inside it is dated as July on the front page of the PDF and then later the author signs off the date as May 2011. This report has been delayed for nearly three months. May is when it was going through it’s Second Reading in the Commons, July is when the government made a failed attempt to hurry it through the Second Reading in the Lords but it got delayed until September.

So this has been released right in the middle of a very good time to bury bad news.
http://twitter.com/living_as_if/status/101724371286106112 Lisa Chalkley

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/FqUmd3H
http://twitter.com/markoneinfour/status/101724967955214336 Mark Brown

@tonybovaird There's another data, stats and benefits admission from DWP today http://t.co/lHcSCBy Both together don't create great image
sam hamilton

The important point is – how can they be made to drop this flawed proposal? If the Consultation was based on a false premise it must surely be illegal? This is just the latest in a long line of very worrying issues about the DLA Consultation, not least the fact that it ended AFTER the bill was presented to parliament! Plus the fact that they received an unprecedented 5,500 responses to the Consultation – exactly when did they have time to analyse and take account of all of these if the bill had already been presented? It is outrageous that they believe it is acceptable to base such ruthless cuts on such dubious methods and gross statistical errors. The whole thing stinks and it must be stopped.
http://twitter.com/mistynow/status/101725429043445760 Gillian Hooper

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/altgovuk/status/101726119845302273 AltGovUK

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/shoozographer/status/101726147619979264 Laura Goodman

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/shoozographer/status/101726594955087874 Laura Goodman

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
sam hamilton

@ mason dixon

well spotted. everyone must make very sure then that this is seen far and wide and not buried after all.
http://twitter.com/cherryflip80/status/101727949631401984 Jodi Bailey

2 different dodgy sets of stats on the same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/45apl/status/101728024944312320 45apl

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/sph1984/status/101728354604023808 Simon Hughes

RT @BendyGirl: #welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/8ro4uIT
http://twitter.com/lsb51/status/101728549173592064 Sue Bowyer

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://fb.me/13IENwBe1
http://twitter.com/hypnodisc/status/101728891961487360 Chris Hypnodisc

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/FqUmd3H
http://twitter.com/staceyuk/status/101729463657697281 StaceyUK

RT @BendyGirl: 2 different dodgy sets of stats on same day? Only in welfare wld that go unnoticed http://t.co/lHcSCBy http://t.co/1kt3Pnc
http://twitter.com/staceyuk/status/101729559677894656 StaceyUK

RT @BendyGirl: Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one w… http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/drkmj/status/101729863379075073 DrKMJ

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/cv_london/status/101730241210363904 CV London

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward: The Department for Work and Pensions ha… http://bit.ly/rcbSeu
http://twitter.com/howdoigetajob/status/101730242200219649 HowDoI GetaJob

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward: The Department for Work and Pensions ha… http://bit.ly/rcbSeu
http://twitter.com/leni_lava/status/101730699622625281 kirst

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/LZG60c5
http://twitter.com/contrary_motion/status/101731441808900096 Aaron Foley

RT @leftfootfwd @contrary_motion British DWP admits disability reform based on inaccurate figures http://t.co/q3EBcfP #disabled #disability
http://twitter.com/qriaz/status/101731526219276288 Qamar Riaz

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/contrary_motion/status/101732092538400768 Aaron Foley

RT @BendyGirl: Oh and not only is their data dodgy, they've sat on it for almost 3 months so no-one would know http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/extraditiongame/status/101732204987695108 Extradition Game

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/paulanettleton/status/101732435947032576 Paul Nettleton

Why disabled people have been left down RT @AltGovUK: The UK government cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/pond3ry/status/101732598199492608 Diana Lees

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/JkNV8nQ
http://twitter.com/sam_royston/status/101732656072491008 Sam Royston

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures: http://bit.ly/oZ6zEE : writes Declan Gaffney #disabilityreform
http://twitter.com/hilaryburrage/status/101732663861329920 Hilary Burrage

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/qLHqur
Declan

@1

Brilliant- many thanks for raising this
http://twitter.com/researchlight/status/101745246739775488 SM

The UK governemnt cannot do basic maths http://tinyurl.com/3d2lge8
http://twitter.com/paulrooke10/status/101747272487931905 Paul Rooke

Lead Story: (Not Always My Views) DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures |… http://goo.gl/Sr3Eu, see more http://goo.gl/kbInT
http://twitter.com/weetedscotland/status/101747605238841345 DJE

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/ByZduLl
http://twitter.com/siouxzmitch/status/101749788130807808 Sue Mitchell

DWP admit to dodgy data use http://bit.ly/qkHTvq
http://twitter.com/wtbdavidg/status/101750773418954752 David Gillon

#disability Did the DWP deliberately delay a report that undermines the entire basis for the #WRB? http://bit.ly/qIkCOw (See 1st comment)
http://twitter.com/opinion8ed_dyke/status/101751974592118785 pip

#disability Did the DWP deliberately delay a report that undermines the entire basis for the #WRB? http://bit.ly/qIkCOw (See 1st comment)
http://twitter.com/ligomersall/status/101753936846921728 liane gomersall

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/03GpVD9
Robert

Pity a few MP’s or minister did not bother with this, I suspect because they love DLA to be ended as Labour once tried with that great chap Brown, remember him.

I supect not to many in labour will be thanking people for this as they have more private meetings with the Tories.
http://twitter.com/wtbdavidg/status/101763637777145857 David Gillon

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://diaryofabenefitscrounger.blogspot.com Sue Marsh

More proof that these sickness and disability benefit reforms are purely cost driven and based on nothing more than assumption. Brilliant work.
http://twitter.com/dannilion/status/101768542709485569 Danni Brennand

#welfare #dla #disability Time to RT & do a happy dance tweeps, DWP admit to dodgy data use http://t.co/lHcSCBy
http://twitter.com/cllrkrichards/status/101769832495726592 Kevin Richards

Come on DWP get your facts right- DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/rrdEyCB
http://wheresthebenefit.blogspot.com DavidG

I’m becoming more and more convinced that there is a major problem with DWP’s ability, or perhaps desire, to conduct research independent of pre-determined outcomes. A couple of weeks ago they released ‘DWP research report 763: attitudes to health and work amongst the working age population.’ (http://www.dwp.gov.uk/newsroom/press-releases/2011/jul-2011/dwp094-11.shtml)I‘m not a statistician or sociologist/anthropologist, but I do have enough of a background in operational research and survey techniques to know when something smells, and I was holding my nose against the waft of something rotten in DWP-land before I was past the first couple of pages. There’s every sign that the survey at the core of the report was designed to confirm pre-determined conclusions rather than conclusions being driven by the survey, they admit up front it was done to provide evidence to support Dame Carol Black’s ‘Review of the health of Britain’s working age population – 2008′ with its dogma that work is good for you come what may (my spine would beg to differ).

Even if you decide that isn’t the case, there are staggeringly obvious problems with the survey design. What reasonable scientist, subject to independent peer review, would base almost the entire set of conclusions of the survey on hypothetical scenarios revolving around attitudes to back-ache and depression, the two most mis-understood and systematically under-estimated disabilities in contemporary society. And this for a report that explicitly states it will be used in designing reform of the disability benefit system.

You can read my analysis of the problems in the report at http://wheresthebenefit.blogspot.com/2011/08/conclude-then-survey-dwp-at-their.html
http://wheresthebenefit.blogspot.com DavidG

I missed a space and munged the link to the DWP Report in post 7, see http://www.dwp.gov.uk/newsroom/press-releases/2011/jul-2011/dwp094-11.shtml

Which reminds me that that link is to the press release, which shows DWP beginning to twist the findings even further, with a claim that 80% of people believe work is good for you, without any of the caveats that the report itself attaches to that figure.
Mr. Sensible

Finally they admit it…

The DWP and right-wing press are all in it together.
http://wheresthebenefit.blogspot.com DavidG

Interesting to read this in conjunction with today’s criticism of DWP statistical reporting by the head of the UK Statistics Authority as reported at http://fullfact.org/blog/dwp_statistics_authority_esa_benefit-2918
http://masondixonautistic.blogspot.com Mason Dixon, Autistic

Whilst I’m basking in reflected glory for a micro-second, can someone else also note that in the DWP tabulation tool data for ESA that over half of claimants are still in the Assessment Phase. This, despite it being over two years with the most recently available data since ESA started and people are only supposed to wait something like 13 weeks for an assessment. So it seems most of the people in the Assessment Phase have already been assessed at least once and are being kept in that stage so that they can be re-assessed indefinitely until the ‘correct’ result is delivered.
http://twitter.com/tiredlegs/status/101809794561740800 Ceri

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/101922435791720448 BendyGirl

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/janewuster/status/101943864771883008 Jane Wuster

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/oyW8ugv
http://twitter.com/falseecon/status/101954478126800896 False Economy

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/mediocredave/status/101954539267174401 M D

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/mrsnickyclark/status/101954777054842880 nicky clark

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/brummytaff/status/101955079149584384 bob woods

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/natalieben/status/101955272309870592 natalieben

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/poutingpou/status/101955420687568896 Kyron Hodgetts

DWP ADMITS DODGY DATA ON Disability Reform
http://t.co/0qSTLY0
http://twitter.com/rosiebrent/status/101955498210889729 Rosie Brent

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/paul_trembath/status/101955534915244033 Paul Trembath

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/streathamsoul/status/101955814641774592 Streatham Miscellany

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/hannahrexic/status/101956464016506880 Hannah-Rebecca

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/scarletharris/status/101956960580149249 Scarlet

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/hannahrexic/status/101956993559953408 Hannah-Rebecca

In this article, @leftfootfwd reveals catastrophic deceit: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/xbkDiv8
http://twitter.com/poutingpou/status/101958539517501440 Kyron Hodgetts

DWP THE DODGY DOSSIER http://t.co/0qSTLY0
http://twitter.com/poutingpou/status/101960549855801345 Kyron Hodgetts

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/j6868z0
http://twitter.com/primeeconomics/status/101961826631290880 Prime Economics

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/annpettifor/status/101961834491416576 Ann Pettifor

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/orwellaintdead/status/101962025118339072 Tom.

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/gregalomaniac/status/101964063248093184 Greg

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://benefitscroungingscum.blogspot.com/ BendyGirl

Great research, thanks Declan!
I’m wondering if it were possible to factor in the impact of those who moved from institutional care into the community, ie the original DLA recipients and those younger disabled ppl who would have previously been in institutional settings into this calculation? Also, the difference between the underclaimed amounts of DLA and the uptake due to increased awareness. If these 3 factors were also taken into account would we then find that any increase in DLA caseload is negligible?
@mason is this something you might know about?
http://twitter.com/avichai15/status/101967732433616896 Paul McGlynn

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/bbri439/status/101969536143732736 brian hocknull

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://a4ehell.blogspot.com/ Kyron

disgracefull a government organisation fanning the flames of resentment against the disabled. I wonder what other data they have put out in the public domain is also dodgy
http://twitter.com/chrisbracken/status/101985914439483393 Chris

Two examples of the duplicity of the #DWP toward the #HardestHit: http://ow.ly/61xBn and http://ow.ly/61xDU
http://twitter.com/kittenofkaos/status/101988617139912704 A Route

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/4gSBiUR
http://twitter.com/scoper71/status/101991725437943808 Sue Cope

Good reporting from @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/wpEh5zY
http://twitter.com/juliancheyne/status/101992640572162049 juliancheyne

Two examples of the duplicity of the #DWP toward the #HardestHit: http://ow.ly/61xBn and http://ow.ly/61xDU
http://twitter.com/dfenney/status/102011155790303232 Deborah Fenney

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/ZnwZnOe
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/08/why-did-dwp-delay-releasing-new-data-until-after-welfare-reform-bill-cleared-commons/ Why did DWP delay releasing new data until after welfare reform bill cleared Commons? | Left Foot Forward

[...] Yesterday we reported how in research published on Monday, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) finally acknowledged that one of the key figures it has been using to make the case for cuts to disability living allowance gives ‘a distorted picture’ . [...]
http://twitter.com/postpolionews/status/102035089235513344 Chris Salter

RT @BrokenOfBritain: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/uOYFoVU #ppnews
http://twitter.com/crimsoncrip/status/102035455851241472 Crimson Crip

RT @BrokenOfBritain: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/uOYFoVU #ppnews
http://wheresthebenefit.blogspot.com DavidG

@Mason Dixon and 11:

Another good point. When I use the Tabulation tool to generate a time series of ESA claims by Assessment Phase it runs up to November 2010, which is the latest released data and 2 years in if I have my ESA history correct. The data does indeed show 593,930 claims and 316,420 of them (53%) still in Assessment Phase. Some of that must represent people in the appeal tribunal queue, but even that is disturbing.

To try and get a better breakdown of what that meant I did Duration of Claim by Phase of Claim, and, looking at the November 2010 quarterly breakdown, we see that there are again 316,420 people still in assessment phase, but we can now see that of those only 132,990 are still in the first 3 months of their claim within which Assessment Phase should complete, 65,620 are in the second three months of their claim (where we would expect some spillover), 66,040 have had claims lasting between six months and a year, 49,450 people have a claim still in Assessment Phase more than a year into the claim, and 2320 are still in Assessment Phase more then 2 years into their claim.

But all of this is in direct contradiction of DWP’s latest quarterly report on ESA (the ’75% are Faking’ one), which supposedly covers the same dataset and says only 1% of claims are still in Assessment Phase (with no further breakdown provided). There’s definitely a problem with one of these sets of figures, 1% is not the same as 53% within normal margins of error!

On a separate note, I can’t help thinking the headline on the Tabulation Tool Web Page: ‘Create Your Own Statiistics’ is one the authors of DWP press-releases have taken to heart
http://twitter.com/christoclifford/status/102039155135090688 christine clifford

RT @BrokenOfBritain: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/uOYFoVU #ppnews
http://twitter.com/living_as_if/status/102060206338486273 Lisa Chalkley

RT @BrokenOfBritain: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/uOYFoVU #ppnews
http://twitter.com/vodghq/status/102285666150383616 John Adams

DWP reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/Qo4cTvd
http://twitter.com/vodghq/status/102316734186401792 John Adams

@CBFdn but can the figures be trusted? DWP reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/Qo4cTvd
Mr Hunt

All this but it does not hide the real fact of just how Evil David Cameron and company are ! Remember what David Cameron said live on television to the entire nation : A country/Government is judged upon how it cares for it’s most vulnerable in society in bad times as well as good times. David Cameron then went on to say if I (David Cameron) becomes prime-Minister you have nothing to fear if you are Sick, Disabled, Frail, Vulnerable or the Poorest in society because he would protect that group of people in society if he becomes Prime-Minister.

If someone makes that sort of pledge/promise live on television they should be held to their promise and punished for misleading the electorate. David Cameron told a Pack of Bare-Faced despicable lies and should be forced via the highest court in the Land to make good his promise and to keep it for the duration of this Parliament. No person should be allowed to lie on this scale and get away with it especially when it is regarding this Nations most vulnerable in society that do not have a voice.

This is supposed to be a civilized society and Politicians act like dictators and their word is worthless. No wonder we have seen the worst riots in British History under David Camerons Evil Leadership.
http://twitter.com/rockybabe/status/102401515850956800 Rachelle Howard

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/9ALabgD
http://twitter.com/wheresbenefit/status/102404764771422208 Where’s the Benefit?

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/livable4all/status/102404856890933248 Livable4All

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/hovellinghermit/status/102405358395465728 Hovellin’ Hermit

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/virginiamoffatt/status/102405365479636992 Virginia Moffatt

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/caer23/status/102405371016130560 ☠

RT @wheresbenefit DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/44NiOzd
http://twitter.com/eqdawf/status/102406045971922944 disability action wf

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/hypnodisc/status/102408649355444225 Chris Hypnodisc

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/sheppeyescapee/status/102411458117255168 sheppeyescapee

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/poddingham_paul/status/102412343962648576 Paul Abbott

DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by @leftfootfwd http://t.co/S3x8d7l
http://twitter.com/ec1ecoem/status/102419806522847232 Emma Coften

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/wyP3W4c
http://twitter.com/opinion8ed_dyke/status/102427140041097216 pip

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/wyP3W4c
http://twitter.com/redjolly1/status/102427772177227777 Debbie Jolly

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/wyP3W4c
http://twitter.com/angelique_emz/status/102450885472419840 Emma Fowler

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/fHnHOmQ
http://twitter.com/randomname32/status/102456683309170688 ITS ME

@angelique_emz: RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/3xYXNZW
http://twitter.com/batfromhell/status/102492177640333312 Vince Thacker

DWP admits flaws in figures on which disability benefit reform is based.
http://t.co/vYqybz4
http://twitter.com/mikehughescq/status/102516546412355584 Mike Hughes

DWP admits flaws in figures on which disability benefit reform is based.
http://t.co/vYqybz4
http://twitter.com/brokenofbritain/status/102792753301307392 Broken OfBritain

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/butterflywgs/status/102793250775113728 Butterflywings

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/bendygirl/status/102793343116914688 BendyGirl

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/caer23/status/102793431818047489 ☠

RT @BrokenOfBritain Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/44NiOzd
http://twitter.com/jpofgwynedd/status/102794465068064768 J P

RT @BrokenOfBritain: Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/IqnNOat
http://twitter.com/fateeore/status/102795554312036353 jeremy young

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/trakgalvis/status/102795611828523008 Trakgalvis

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/adreamofhoney/status/102796248045723648 -

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/ErCmsVp
http://twitter.com/deb35/status/102798381440704512 Deb35

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/aliceblundrland/status/102799398806880258 Alice in Blunderland

Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/ZiiCCXF
http://twitter.com/carbonised/status/102803838838382592 Rebecca Devitt

RT @BrokenOfBritain: Of all the DWP/Atos stories this w/d these are the most important 2… http://t.co/IqnNOat
http://twitter.com/superfurryandy/status/102837824142835713 Andy Bean

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/pYr9e93
http://twitter.com/lvscnews/status/103065809160642560 LVSC

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/iinjTKm
http://twitter.com/teachology/status/103081975685971968 Jim Crawley

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/iinjTKm
http://twitter.com/fudhala79/status/103269677110796288 Tariq Ziyad

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/08/dwp-admits-disability-reform-based-on-dodgy-figures-as-reported-by-left-foot-forward/
http://twitter.com/deafaction/status/103425273172721665 Deaf Action

#DWP admits #disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/O2uBt8E #DLA
http://twitter.com/ukequality/status/103426129683161088 Donald Macaskill

#DWP admits #disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/O2uBt8E #DLA
http://twitter.com/deafconnections/status/103426487230795776 Deaf Connections

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/xN13ki9
http://twitter.com/themingford/status/105059949289291776 Thomas Hemingford

#DWP admits #disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/O2uBt8E #DLA
http://twitter.com/opinion8ed_dyke/status/105061521326997504 pip

#DWP admits #disability reform based on dodgy figures http://t.co/O2uBt8E #DLA
http://twitter.com/christhegoth/status/108889155827810305 Christian Wilcox

@ArnieEtc @MarioCreatura Cutting 900,000 Disabled people for no reason, and you retweet that? Read this: http://t.co/Yb4muSM . Who's crazy?
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/09/papworth-trust-survey-disabled-people-fears/ Disabled people fear further impoverishment as cuts begin to hit | Left Foot Forward

[...] The minister’s response will add to growing concerns from disabled people’s organisations and charities – not only do the government not understand the current purpose of DLA but the use of statistics to support the cuts to this benefit has been misleading. [...]
http://twitter.com/ligomersall/status/109255333091872769 liane gomersall

#septembercomeback DWP admits disability reform based on dodgy figures, as reported by Left Foot Forward http://t.co/GGUHcbl
http://launchpadncl.org.uk/2011/09/01/flashback-and-data-dump-end-of-august-end-of-summer-mail-out-of-of-mental-health-health-and-social-care-newsviews-and-opinions/ Flashback and data dump: End of August, end of summer, mail-out of of mental health, health and social care news,views and opinions « Launchpad: By and for mental health service users

[...] people receiving support from the Access to Work (AtW) scheme (ta to John Pring). The self-same DWP admits using dodgy figures to advance the case for disability ‘reform’ (a.k.a cuts), and the statistics authority [...]
http://twitter.com/mattslade78/status/156377732182319105 Matt Slade

Dreadful business, but due to unfashionable/stagmatised subject matter, not enough people care. http://t.co/T9z1MQvt
http://twitter.com/djmgaffneyw4/status/201951803770814464 Declan Gaffney

Disturbing: SoS W&P using 30% figure, of which his own dept said 'This distorts the overall picture of growth'. http://t.co/5CrowbJB
http://twitter.com/djmgaffneyw4/status/201952418513162240 Declan Gaffney

@leftfootfwd IDS still using figure DWP said 'distorted' August 2011 http://t.co/5CrowbJB
http://twitter.com/bumblybeebuzz/status/201956327197650944 Love the Bees

@leftfootfwd IDS still using figure DWP said 'distorted' August 2011 http://t.co/5CrowbJB
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2012/05/iain-duncan-smith-spin-war-against-disabled-people/ IDS’s continuing spin war against people with disabilities: part 47 | Left Foot Forward

[...] by which point the Welfare Reform Bill had passed the report stage in the Commons – the DWP conceded that their previous analysis ‘distorted the overall picture of growth’ in numbers of [...]