Express’s £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd

By John Perry, who blogs at the Migrants Rights Network

Migration Watch has published a new claim - dutifully reported by the Daily Express and the Star - that meeting the social housing needs of new immigrants will cost the tax payer £1 billion a year for the next 25 years.

It bases its assessment on the fact that migration is currently expected to lead to the formation of 83,000 new households each year, out of a projected total of 232,000 new households.

These are official figures, but they need to be treated with great caution: population projections are revised regularly and do not take account of the economic situation, which might well lead to a fall in net migration over the next few years.

While the 83,000 households (if the projection is correct) would add to housing demand, so would the 149,000 households due to form from natural population growth.

The link between this overall demand and the number of homes that are built is purely theoretical: many of these households will share, many won’t qualify for social housing for many years, or be able to afford to buy. In any event, for many years now the number of new houses built has not kept pace with household formation.

The fact is that the government currently plans to build 150,000 social homes over the next five years and the budgets to do that are already fixed. Much of the money has to come from social landlords’ own resources, which means rents will go up.

Grants for new social housing will total only £4.5bn, or £1.125 bn per year on average, for the four years 2011-2015. It is absurd to say that social housing for migrants will cost the taxpayer £1bn per year as this would be almost the entire annual average total budget.

Few if any new migrants will qualify to get these homes: the percentage of new social housing lettings going to foreign nationals in any one year is only 7%, and the vast majority of these are likely to be people who have lived in the UK for many years, and have had time to get settled immigration status, to have families and to qualify through waiting lists.

As a new briefing from Oxford’s Migration Observatory points out, 75% of newly-arrived migrants go into the private rented sector.

The Migration Watch research paper also tries to link social housing and migration by putting the growth in waiting lists and in net migration on the same graph.

This compares chalk and cheese: only a very small percentage of the new migrants shown would have been eligible to go on waiting lists, and an even smaller proportion would have actually put their names down, for a variety of reasons.

An important one is that much of the growth shown is from the new EU countries, most of whose nationals did not initially qualify for social housing anyway.

http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/104149486175141888 Michael

Express’s £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd l Left Foot Forward – http://j.mp/qoNk57
Patrick

So, what Migration Watch is saying is that we would have to pay that much (if the number of migrants coming into the UK stays the same for the next 25 years), but we won’t, b/c the government is not building enough homes to begin with. Sounds like an unnecessary piece of research to me, and definitely not worth the paper it is printed on (correction server it is published on).
http://anthonycooper.blogspot.com Anthony

They might well be wrong but your rebuttal is insufficient. You argue that the government’s plans are fixed for the next few years. However, that might just imply that the government is going to fall behind in their provision and need to provide a much larger number. Their report is looking over a 25 year period, not just the next four.

Also, you point out that most immigrants will not qualify for social housing. You’re right and they take that into account explicitly in the report.
http://anthonycooper.blogspot.com Anthony

Having said that, it looks like they’re out by 50% because of an incorrect assumption about the level of government funding per unit of social housing. See http://bit.ly/ncG30C
Westhillman

I don’t think the author of this blog fully understands how the housing market operates. Migrationwatch has showed that there is some sort of positive correlation between the increase in waiting lists for social housing and the increase in net migrants. Migrationwatch have not made any assumption about how many of those on the waiting list will actually be migrants. However, even if nobody on these waiting lists was a migrant, the increase in waiting list numbers could still be caused by migration if a consequence of net migration was to put pressure on the existing housing stock (by increasing rents and prices), thus leading to a greater demand for social housing.
http://twitter.com/zandeconkllight/status/104298319374843904 Zander Conkle

http://t.co/rSZCdxp Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/katrinawestermf/status/104302360335089665 Katrina Westerman

http://t.co/f740mTN Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/gaelfuaview/status/104303239184384000 Gael Fua

Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward http://t.co/ISBDTnz
http://twitter.com/onejulialexa/status/104307134694555648 Julianna Alexander

http://t.co/jXoOdls Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
Mr. Sensible

these things called facts are something the right wing media deliberately don’t get as it would undermine their worldview.
http://twitter.com/onescottwehi/status/104384025786974208 Scott Wehinger

http://t.co/kkBHmKb Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/fillonebe/status/104431422051323904 FilloneBe

http://t.co/qLsE5Kv Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/byhayltsud/status/104433706273476608 Haylee Tsuda

http://t.co/51SfjQy Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/jules_birch/status/104450475096686592 Jules Birch

John Perry on why £1bn cost claim for immigrant housing is absurd http://t.co/eEcwsk0
http://twitter.com/fillonebe/status/104491079629410304 FilloneBe

Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward http://t.co/qLsE5Kv
http://twitter.com/katrinawestermf/status/104561970757386240 Katrina Westerman

http://t.co/f740mTN Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd – Left Foot Forward
http://twitter.com/mikelewiswrc/status/104860445919289345 Mike Lewis

Migrationwatch claims that immigrant demand for social housing will cost £1billion pa but the facts do not stack up http://t.co/6X2rAOP
http://twitter.com/jantelapartners/status/105623022316163072 Jantela Partnership

Express's £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absur: http://t.co/ViDuUFn : writes @migrants_rights network's John Perry
Roger

Love the irony Mr Sensible – even your name is ironic!
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[...] • Express’s £1billion claim on immigrant housing is absurd - John Perry, August 18th 2011 [...]