The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals

Ashwin Kumar is an economist and a former director of the consumer watchdog Passenger Focus

There’s no question the Dorries proposal to require women to go for counselling somewhere other than their abortion provider will add delay to the process. But little discussion has happened about the consequences.

Nadine-Dorries Putting an extra step in the abortion process is likely to increase the number of later abortions; the number that involve a surgical procedure; the number of women who experience complications; and the costs to the NHS.

As a society we’ve made substantial progress in reducing the number of abortions that take place after nine weeks of pregnancy – down from 74,000 to 44,000 – a 40 per cent drop in the last decade alone.

But if the process starts taking longer we can expect that progress to reverse. With only one week’s average delay caused by these proposals, we can expect to see an additional 18,500 abortions take place at 10 weeks or more – a jump of more than 40%.

And later abortions come with many consequences.

First and foremost is the type of abortion. About half of earlier abortions (up to nine weeks) require a surgical procedure – the other half take place using an abortion pill. But for later abortions (from 10 weeks onward), around 80% involve surgery. So one consequence of the Dorries proposals is a likely increase of 15,000 in the number of surgical abortions.

Abortion, thankfully a very safe procedure in this country – complications are only experienced in 1 out of a 1,000 cases for earlier abortions – but the risk does increase the later an abortion takes place. From 13 weeks, the complication rate is 1 in 200 and it doubles to 1 in 100 from 20 weeks.

Taking into account these rates, it’s not difficult to calculate that an average delay of one week to abortions because of counselling requirements is likely to lead to an 11% increase in the number who experience complications.

Finally costs: later abortions cost more as they are more involved procedures. Delays caused by counselling requirements are likely to push some women into time bands where they require more expensive procedures. So we can expect a 4 per cent increase in our NHS bill as a result of such delays.

To sum up, delays of even one week caused by more complicated counselling requirements could see:

• Later abortions up 40%;

• Surgical procedures up by 15,000,

• Eleven per cent more women experiencing complications, and

• An increase of 4% in NHS costs.

http://twitter.com/politicsinbrum/status/108939015272669184 Politics in Brum

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/bang2write/status/108939659761037313 Lucy V Hay

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/davidrmsmith/status/108939668715872257 David Smith

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/88t6Ul5
http://twitter.com/sea55red/status/108939683534340096 Sandra Ayres

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/yeswejon/status/108939870898106368 Jon Spiers

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/catherine_max/status/108940130307407872 Catherine Max

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/maxafax/status/108940238537228288 Max Ramsay

why Dorries is a Muppet http://t.co/PVcq4tz
http://twitter.com/kumarashwin/status/108940927241961473 Ashwin Kumar

Dorries's abortion proposal is likely to lead to more later abortions. See my article http://t.co/iSkv9u3
http://twitter.com/sallyannelowe/status/108941090790445056 Sally Anne Lowe

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/108941515631501312 Shamik Das

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/108942194487992321 Shamik Das

More on crazy Nadine Dorries anti-abortion proposals on LFF: http://t.co/z8CW7OB & http://t.co/Ht4XR2m & on @PSBook: http://t.co/QaJ2i6Q
http://twitter.com/politicalplanet/status/108942293041549313 Political Planet

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: There’s no question Nadine Dorries’s proposal forcin… http://t.co/Gpv4HYG
http://twitter.com/jenni_jackson/status/108942313652371456 Jenni Jackson

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/DjHNh2m
http://twitter.com/alison_mcgovern/status/108942531357716480 Alison McGovern

Possible consequences of Dorries amdt: RT @KumarAshwin Dorries abortion proposal likely to lead to more later abortions http://t.co/LQuNCVa
http://twitter.com/annaturley/status/108942657946001408 Anna Turley

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/introspect_/status/108943239725322240 .

Possible consequences of Dorries amdt: RT @KumarAshwin Dorries abortion proposal likely to lead to more later abortions http://t.co/LQuNCVa
http://twitter.com/daphneguthrie/status/108943243902844928 Daphne Vial Guthrie

More on crazy Nadine Dorries anti-abortion proposals on LFF: http://t.co/z8CW7OB & http://t.co/Ht4XR2m & on @PSBook: http://t.co/QaJ2i6Q
http://twitter.com/clancyhood/status/108943524296265728 Clancy Hood

Some helpful analysis of Dorries's proposals http://t.co/cC105tg (not that she opines based on actual data, but others may find it helpful)
http://twitter.com/amandakendal/status/108943703099453441 Amanda Kendal

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/justclark1/status/108943930615279616 Justin Clark

Stats in previous tweet via @KumarAshwin on @leftfootfwd – The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals:http://t.co/xnU89zS
http://twitter.com/ericthefishking/status/108944909532282880 Eric The Fish

Dorries's abortion proposal is likely to lead to more later abortions. See my article http://t.co/iSkv9u3
http://twitter.com/labour52rose/status/108945119012601856 Alex Braithwaite

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/bryonyvk/status/108946849687281664 Bryony Victoria King

More on crazy Nadine Dorries anti-abortion proposals on LFF: http://t.co/z8CW7OB & http://t.co/Ht4XR2m & on @PSBook: http://t.co/QaJ2i6Q
http://twitter.com/cochis3/status/108948891386380288 Cochis

Useless MP tries to be important-RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/AFKnWqb
http://twitter.com/beat_paradise/status/108949214003867648 Beat S. Paradise

Dorries plan may see abortion rise by 40%: http://t.co/UW2yt4C on @leftfootfwd, @Lefty_Lisa @BevaniteEllie @c_quigley @ChrisBryantMP
http://twitter.com/hullrepublic/status/108950281370341377 HullRePublic

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/Qo2FDjV
http://twitter.com/mobymooby/status/108951475044098048 Pete

@leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/Ene6j52 by @KumarAshwin> + cost of 60k more babies pa
http://twitter.com/leftferret/status/108952383119306754 wendy collins

Dorries plan may see abortion rise by 40%: http://t.co/UW2yt4C on @leftfootfwd, @Lefty_Lisa @BevaniteEllie @c_quigley @ChrisBryantMP
http://twitter.com/lilminxv/status/108952390530641920 VeeBee

http://t.co/vAmAHSS Leftfootforward: The costs and consequences of Nadine Dorries's abortion proposals #Dorries #abortion
http://twitter.com/mikegapes/status/108952532092592128 Mike Gapes

Dorries plan may see abortion rise by 40%: http://t.co/UW2yt4C on @leftfootfwd, @Lefty_Lisa @BevaniteEllie @c_quigley @ChrisBryantMP
http://twitter.com/brit_newsman/status/108953267085643776 Dennis

http://t.co/vAmAHSS Leftfootforward: The costs and consequences of Nadine Dorries's abortion proposals #Dorries #abortion
http://twitter.com/tonyburke2010/status/108953339785515008 Tony Burke

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/A49xy0j
http://twitter.com/patsindevon/status/108953512515346432 Patrick Canavan

Dorries plan may see abortion rise by 40%: http://t.co/qYLKbeR on @leftfootfwd, @Lefty_Lisa @BevaniteEllie @ChrisBryantMP @Patsindevon
http://twitter.com/pregnancy_hopes/status/108957181302415361 Katie Holman

The costs and consequences of Dorries's abortion proposals http://t.co/sl79w9I
http://twitter.com/nhsspy/status/108958730216939520 Watching You

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/redjolly1/status/108959750150037505 Debbie Jolly

RT @leftfootfwd The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/SpVcmfQ by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/caer23/status/108961119971975168 ☠

RT @leftfootfwd The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/SpVcmfQ by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/sinnaluvva/status/108962461381701632 Malcolm Evison

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/juXULaT
http://twitter.com/labourvoter/status/108966527176421376 Labour Voter

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/lizdavies2/status/108967673177718784 LizDavies

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/108972382542237696 Michael

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals – http://t.co/OkA6skw
http://twitter.com/creativecrip/status/108972427094134784 TheCreativeCrip

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals – http://t.co/OkA6skw
http://twitter.com/terry_firmer/status/108972993631371264 Terry Firmer

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/adpucci/status/108974017473556480 Pucci Dellanno

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://pjsaunders.blogspot.com/ Peter Saunders

This debate is about matters that cannot be measured in purely financial terms.

But regardless, what you have not factored in are the costs of the long term consequences of abortion for physical and mental health. Fewer abortions means fewer cases of mental illness and fewer preterm births – both huge draws on NHS resources.

Dorries amendment giving women option of independent abortion counseling is a step in the right direction – http://bit.ly/pj5D4C
http://twitter.com/thomstitt/status/108978764611993601 Thom Stitt

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/dellmacefield/status/108981030580518912 Dell Macefield

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
http://twitter.com/magsuiss/status/108982464332050432 Maggie Suissa

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
Charles

There’s no reason using an independent counsellor should necessarily take any longer than a counsellor from the abortion provider, unless of course the abortion provider rushes the counselling process, which is of course the accusation made by Dorries.
http://twitter.com/catherinbrunton/status/109023353045655552 Catherine Brunton

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals – http://t.co/OkA6skw
Mr. Sensible

And how does Dories account for this?

Apart from the fact that I think it is a very bad idea for reasons which I will save for the other thread on this subject, one might hae thought that the Tories would have thought about how they would pay for it before proceeding. I am pleased that Downing Street are now saying they will not support it.
http://twitter.com/goodoldmj/status/109344611616571392 Martin Johnston

The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals: http://t.co/UW2yt4C by @KumarAshwin
Fabian

Why does anybody care what she thinks anyway? This isn’t about empowering women, it’s about discouraging birth control, seeing as Dorries is a religious bigot.
http://twitter.com/rachelreevesmp/status/109596884401795072 Rachel Reeves

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/RB46Jnl < Great article by Ashwin Kumar
http://twitter.com/cutchswife/status/109596941733736448 cutchswife

RT @leftfootfwd: The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals http://t.co/RB46Jnl < Great article by Ashwin Kumar
James

@Fabian – how is providing the option of independent counselling about discouraging birth control, unless you think more women would decide against abortion if they weren’t advised by people with a vested financial interest in one outcome? If that’s true, then it’s a good argument to support independent counselling!
Tom White

Dorries’s position is nonsense. A) Marie Stopes and the BPAS are charities, not looking to ‘make a profit’ – they *do* provide independent counselling. B) Her amendment provides no real safeguards to fundamentalist loonies being involved in counselling. C) You shouldn’t force women to have counselling if they don’t want it. So most of these comments are missing the point.

Nadine Dorries is vehemently opposed to abortion. Having lied last time – and yes, she did lie, and it can be proved – in the hope of lowering the limit from 24 to 20 weeks, when there was no good medical evidence to support it, she’s now trying the backdoor approach. Again she’s not being honest.

I’m not taken in by it; neither should you be.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/09/look-left-02-09-11/ Look Left – Libya: Allies urge “reconciliation and forgiveness” | Left Foot Forward

[...] Dorries’s fellow fundamentalists are gradually restricting reproductive rights, and examined the costs and consequences of her proposals, while in the Guardian the excellent Zoe Williams [...]
http://twitter.com/kumarashwin/status/109999121074618369 Ashwin Kumar

@EmilyThornberry Dorries amendment will add delay to getting an abortion: see http://t.co/iSkv9u3 for my estimate of likely consequences
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/09/04/right-wingers-screeching-about-abortion-vote-are-ignoring-reality/ Right-wingers screeching about abortion vote are ignoring reality | Liberal Conspiracy

[...] to replace BPAS and Marie Stopes? GPs were not only opposed but also over-stretched already. The the costs and delays that would result are also significant enough to affect the NHS [...]
http://www.sampleproposal.org/ Proposals

People have really gone mad and misusing ever thing they can..these abortion cases and divorce cases are increasing in numbers..
Sara

I don’t know for how many women the choice of abortion is made at least partly because they are stuck in an abysmal quality of life situation, but Dorries and colleagues might find another approach much more effective in reducing abortion figures. They could fight equally hard to improve the life situation of women in the most difficult positions in our society. They could fight to make society more equal, to ensure that everyone has good life chances. But do they? I haven’t noticed it.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/10/what-the-fox-does-cameron-agree-with-widdecombe-on/ What the fox does Cameron agree with Widdecombe on? | Left Foot Forward

[...] The costs and consequences of Dorries’s abortion proposals – Ashwin Kumar, August 31st [...]