1,418 views
Sustainable Economy > Published by Daniel Elton, November 16th 2011 at 1:59 pm

Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to

Print Friendly

We know from this morning’s unemployment figures that the government’s austerity programme is hurting – and it’s hurting the young and unemployed the most. But is it working?

David Cameron and Nick Clegg asserted in the Coalition Agreement (pdf) that tackling public sector debt was the government’s ‘most urgent task’. It has been revealed this morning that across the finance industry, the verdict is failure.

The Treasury has collated 14 independent forecasters’ predictions (pdf, p.18) for net government borrowing over the next four years.

Their collected view is that chancellor George Osborne will borrow billions more than the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted he would in June 2010 (pdf, Table C7, p.90) – or that the OBR said Alistair Darling (pdf, Table 4.5, p.38) would have if Labour had been re-elected.

Graph-of-borrowing-projections-2010-2015

Here are the raw figures:

Table-of-borrowing-projections-2010-2015

At worst, the government’s swinging cuts have stopped the recovery in its tracks, leading to borrowing far above and beyond what they predicted their supposedly profligate rivals intended. At best, with the European and global economy facing such turmoil, the facts have significantly changed since the general election of May 2010.

The current strategy has failed. It’s time for serious change.

See also:

• Fast spending cuts push economy from fastest quarterly growth for a decade towards zero – Cormac Hollingsworth, November 1st 2011

• Unprecedented growth of 1.3 per cent needed for OBR to meet its projection – Will Straw, October 31st 2011

• For every extra £4 spending is cut, it only cuts borrowing an extra 75p – Cormac Hollingsworth, October 18th 2011

• Growth cut the 2010-11 deficit as fast as cuts – Cormac Hollingsworth, September 22nd 2011

• Without growth will we even halve the deficit? – Cormac Hollingsworth, September 20th 2011

  • William

    You mean,bring back the man that abolished the economic cycle?

  • Anonymous

    But Darling was unaware that the Eurozone would implode so his actual borrowing would most likely have been significantly different to what was predicted in early 2010. The austerity measures of the current government are painful for many people particularly the young, but it is difficult for our economy to grow when one of our biggest markets is the Eurozone. One of our biggest industries is financial services and yet many people want to tear one of our biggest sources of revenue apart. The austerity measures mean that we have not become another Greece or Italy, who are having to suffer much greater cuts in public spending than ourselves. The current policies mean that as an economy we are just about keeping our head above water so that after the pain we will not have a false dawn, but a recovery built on solid foundations rather than the prefabricated one which Balls would give us.

  • http://twitter.com/Newsbot9 Newsbot9

    Ah yes, the office of budgetry fiddling.

    Also, your comments are badly broken. No option to use another name, your purple background behind everything except the text boxes…

  • David

    Apart from Osborne being economically illiterate, doesn’t this show that the OBR is a bit rubbish at the end of the day?

  • http://twitter.com/Newsbot9 Newsbot9

    “The austerity measures mean that we have not become another Greece or Italy”

    On the contrary, shrinking the economy, reducing the rate of tax and the rate of actual tax collection, borrowing more and creating poverty and inequality IS how we’ll end up like them in a few years. The record-low bond yields are NOT the mark of confidence the Government takes them for.

  • Anonymous

    Can’t understand why you are not applauding Osborne if he spends more. I thought you lefties liked more public spending.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Julian-Price/653286113 David Julian Price

    Well, thanks to the fact the markets have confidence in us the interest on this extra debt is extremely low.

    Alistair Darling’s predictions were wildly optimistic anyway, just like his boss’s statements. Remember Brown saying we are “uniquely well placed to weather the effects of the recession”? You couldn’t make it up…

  • http://twitter.com/cheema10/status/136919775535312898 Hussain Cheema

    @jaysensharpe @LouiseMensch
    http://t.co/57qVjzD8
    Coalition set to borrow more then Labour would have- Independent experts.
    Explain

  • http://twitter.com/amanda_j_w/status/136923919272779776 Amanda Wilkinson

    George Osborne set to borrow billions more than Alistair Darling would've had to had Labour been elected http://t.co/EPvdxPrB #unemployment

  • http://twitter.com/ccadywould/status/136930128633671680 Charlie Cadywould
  • http://twitter.com/davidfkent/status/136935147424591872 David Kent

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/Ldwlqyw7

  • http://twitter.com/liliyefish/status/136940452313186305 Lily Fish

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to http://t.co/yfRxJwjA

  • http://twitter.com/realjayrox/status/136950202761347072 Jay Nathan

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to http://t.co/rdw732px via @Markfergusonuk

  • http://twitter.com/paynemg/status/136958469944246272 Matthew Payne

    Osborne to borrow billions more than first predicted, more than the Darling plan. Will his answer be further austerity? http://t.co/wMf7L5qZ

  • http://twitter.com/pigovian/status/136959770279161857 Matt Barker

    http://t.co/Vyhz4mAW #gideon_is_useless #fb

  • http://twitter.com/colombialawbiz/status/137031581863903232 Hunter T. Carter

    Power. Electric sector welcomes hemisphere visitors to Medellin Nov. 30-Dec. 2 for trade show. http://t.co/omJDPIJg

  • http://twitter.com/unite785/status/137072067047735296 Brnch Sec Ruth H

    Even independent experts say Osborne will borrow more than Labour was predicted to http://t.co/bpkObyIN via @danielelton

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/11/uk-not-performing-too-well-in-the-gdp-growth-championship/ UK not performing too well in the GDP growth championship | Left Foot Forward

    [...] also: • Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to – Daniel Elton, November 16th [...]

  • http://twitter.com/wtbdavidg/status/137162662533529600 David Gillon

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/itom05/status/137162966020784128 Tomos Clarke

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/twowolves/status/137163736321490945 2wolves

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/marcusaroberts/status/137165258052747264 Marcus A. Roberts

    Treasury/Indep. experts say that Osborne will borrow more than OBR said Darling would: http://t.co/j8pluFMr on @leftfootfwd

  • http://twitter.com/andrewdburns/status/137168547225927680 Andrew D Burns

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/trakgalvis/status/137169100123287552 Trakgalvis

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/11/chuka-umunna-david-gauke-mark-hoban-newsnight-treasury-obr-borrowing/ Treasury vs Treasury on the borrowing gap: One of them’s wrong | Left Foot Forward

    [...] on from our report yesterday on the fact that the Treasury’s figures showing that they would borrow more than [...]

  • http://twitter.com/ae_parry/status/137176333859033088 Adrian Parry

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/dbts60/status/137228278028181504 DBTS

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/lrynsard/status/137232153300836352 Louis Rynsard

    its #hurting but its not #working http://t.co/DhyOebMf #timeforplanb

  • http://twitter.com/robertcp/status/137283986404814849 Robert CP

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  • http://twitter.com/Newsbot9 Newsbot9

    It won’ t stay low. The market is only “confident” we won’t grow.

  • http://twitter.com/ns_mehdihasan/status/137582850017988608 Mehdi Hasan

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  • http://twitter.com/samanthaj494/status/137584261447426048 Samantha Johnston

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  • http://twitter.com/petebowler/status/137588652221014016 Pete Bowler

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  • rogersblog

    I’m always amazed that it doesn’t seem possible to separate the recurring from the non-recurring in public expenditure figures. If we did this it would direct us to cut the recurring and increase the non-recurring investment elements of public expenditure.
    This of course would mean cuts in salaries and increases in job creation schemes. It would mean cuts in subsidies and increases in investments.

  • http://twitter.com/greekcynic/status/137613671529582592 Ann Lawson

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  • http://twitter.com/karenpbuckmp/status/137634902605709313 Karen Buck MP

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  • http://twitter.com/shanedgj/status/139324506127867904 shane

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/liammars/status/139327987421159425 L

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/adpucci/status/139330994728738816 Pucci D

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/jesuscastanedo/status/139331109237432320 Jesus Fernando Cast™

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/labour52rose/status/139404521242755073 Alex Braithwaite

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://twitter.com/christhegoth/status/141144751670956032 Christian Wilcox

    @jackclaudereadi This is current borrowing projections: http://t.co/Ns5GadqX. Compiled by Treasury. Due to your Plan A failing.

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/11/whatever-osbornes-growth-forecasts-today-the-reality-is-probably-worse/ Whatever Osborne’s growth forecasts you hear today, the reality is probably worse | Left Foot Forward

    [...] on public spending. Disappointing growth has also led to the coalition expecting to borrow more than Labour was projected to if it had won the 2010 [...]

  • http://twitter.com/yorkierosie/status/141509382306406401 #pressreform

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/suey2y/status/141509885018914817 Sue Marsh

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/christhegoth/status/141510648105402368 Christian Wilcox

    @ToryPressHQ *ahem* If you can't create growth we'll get this: http://t.co/Ns5GadqX. HM Treasury figures as well… #Croydon #Labour #AS2011

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000623749669 Giles Bradshaw

    Isn’t one of the problems with this that darlings previous projections had proved hopelessly wrong? I seem to remember Brown sayi9ng he had put an end to boom and bust. Should we compare that projection?

  • http://twitter.com/morbid_sparks/status/141512622297190400 morbid_sparks

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/lapocketrocket/status/141512937436225538 Lauren

    It's confirmed then: According to OBR, Osborne will borrow more than Daling projections: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/johnnor/status/141512975029772288 John Nor

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/croydonfeed/status/141514162827313152 Croydon feed

    @ToryPressHQ *ahem* If you can't create growth we'll get this: http://t.co/FZ1q2zSV. HM Treasury figures as well… http://t.co/vxobPQdk

  • http://twitter.com/john_gannon/status/141514258851708928 John Gannon

    And the difference is? RT@leftfootfwd Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/5xAWo75H #as11

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/11/obr-confirm-osborne-will-borrow-more-than-the-darling-projection/ OBR confirm Osborne will borrow more than the Darling projection | Left Foot Forward

    [...] puts the OBR in line with those independent forecasters collated by HM Treasury this [...]

  • http://twitter.com/ivorycutlery/status/141517389849313280 Brian Wallington

    It's confirmed then: According to OBR, Osborne will borrow more than Daling projections: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  • http://twitter.com/amiz_a/status/141660239991812096 Amiza

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/12/uk-to-be-back-in-recession-in-2012/ More grim news: Economists predict UK will be back in recession in 2012 | Left Foot Forward

    [...] puts the OBR in line with those independent forecasters collated by HM Treasury this [...]

  • http://www.leftfootforward.org/2012/02/excuses-excuses-excuses-the-eurozone-crisis-weakness-in-the-us-or-the-wrong-type-of-snow/ Excuses, excuses, excuses: The Eurozone crisis, weakness in the US, or the wrong type of snow? | Left Foot Forward

    [...] crisis, weakness in the US, or the wrong type of snow? The Financial Times has responded to our November article in which we broke the news that George Osborne is set to borrow millions more than he slated [...]