DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats. DWP’s spin says…

Chris Grayling is spinning away in the Telegraph today, implying that immigrants are likely to be benefit cheats. Needless to say, the statistics don’t quite show what the minister for work and pensions says they do.

In his piece, Grayling writes:

[Waiting until the introduction of Universal Credit] and doing nothing was not good enough. So we’ve done a complex research exercise to match information about people’s nationality when they entered the country with the list of people now on benefits.

As a result we now know that there are 371,000 people who were foreign nationals when they entered Britain who are claiming benefits. The majority come from outside the EU…

All of this represents an almighty mess. It should never have been allowed to happen. And Labour should be embarrassed by what it left behind.

But Jonathan Portes reveals the problem behind claiming 371,000 foreign-born benefit claimants represents an “almighty mess”:

371,000 people, out of a total of 5.5 million, who are claiming working-age benefits, were non-UK nationals when they first registered for a National Insurance number; of these 258,000 were from outside the European Economic Area. Of this latter group, 54% are now British nationals, so presumably the rest are not.

Meanwhile, for comparison, we can also look at the Labour Force Survey. This says that, of the total number of people in work (about 29 million), some 4 million were born abroad. Of these 2.7 million were born outside the EEA. And of these, 1.3 million are not (yet) British citizens.

So, summing up these numbers in very rough percentages:

• migrants represent about 13 per cent of all workers, but only seven per cent of out-of-work claimants;

• migrants from outside the EEA represent about nine to ten per cent of all workers, but about five per cent of out-of-work claimants

• foreign nationals from outside the EEA represent about 4.5 per cent of all workers, but a little over two per cent of out-of-work benefit claimants.

Rather than showing that migrants come to the UK from overseas to leach of the welfare state, the data in fact shows that migrants impose less than proportionate costs on the UK.

Of course, this isn’t Grayling’s spin. Forced to defend his dog-whistle anti-immigrant rhetoric on the Today programme, he argued that:

It’s important to have a system everyone has confidence in… [and it's] extraordinary we didn’t have any data on nationality of benefit claimants… otherwise how can people have confidence that we are paying out to people who are entitled.

When confronted with the fact that his own data has little evidence of benefit tourism, he claimed:

We have yet to establish the full picture. [...] It may be there isn’t a problem now… but we have seen in recent yrs illegal immigrants get NI numbers…

I want to make sure we know fully what is going on and can answer questions in Parliament about it.

This government’s attitude to evidence is fast becoming clear: Ignore it if you can, spin it if you can’t, and act on it only if it confirms your prejudices.

See also:

• How to create a Telegraph migration scare story – Matt Cavanagh, September 9th 2011

• Express and Mail fail the migration stats test – Sunder Katwala, August 26th 2011

• The bad news in yesterday’s employment stats (and it’s not about migration) – Declan Gaffney, July 14th 2011

• When will politicians stop taking the public for fools on immigration? – Declan Gaffney, July 2nd 2011

• New Migration Watch report misses opportunity for balanced debate on migration – Ruth Grove-White, February 22nd 2011

http://twitter.com/mattythurst/status/160318122753142784 Matt H

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/shanedgj/status/160318524470996992 shane

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/redjourno/status/160318583816196099 Tom Wall

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/michaelje67/status/160319785035497472 michael emonds

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/6DhwS9DE
http://twitter.com/red_nick/status/160320066339094531 Nicolas Redfern

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/leftlinks/status/160320388923015168 leftlinks

Left Foot Forward – DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats. DWP’s spin says… http://t.co/4NkCrZk6
http://twitter.com/marc_bush/status/160320404651651073 Dr Marc Bush

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/patronpress/status/160321214982795264 Patron Press – #P2

#UK : DWP evidence says migrants aren ’t benefit cheats. DWP ’s spin says … http://t.co/uCGbGdLJ
http://twitter.com/shamikdas/status/160321527122890752 Shamik Das

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
Anonymous

If they are claiming benefits, then they are not an economic benefit to the UK.

Some poor bugger on minimum wage is being taxed to pay for them.

They won’t have paid enough NI to cover the cost of benefits being paid out to them.

It’s negative for the UK.

It’s a major problem for government finances.

One reason why other benefits are being axed.
http://twitter.com/quivergently/status/160322675049369600 Quiver Gently

The real figures for #immigrant #benefit claims: http://t.co/aQopP1ch #telegraph #folkdevil
http://twitter.com/britishroses1/status/160323103774359552 BevR

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/pulpark/status/160323220279537665 Pulp Ark

DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats…. http://t.co/PRxeZidn #Clean_Politics #benefit_cheats #DWP #evidence #muslim #tcot #sioa
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2012/01/playing-the-blame-game-its-all-the-immigrants-fault/ Playing the blame game – it’s all the immigrants fault… | Left Foot Forward

[...] DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats. DWP’s spin says… – Alex Hern, January 20th [...]
http://twitter.com/kamilashamsie/status/160326024092065793 Kamila Shamsie

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/doolallydaddy/status/160326967617523712 Whatswrongwithdaddy

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/rosiejanele/status/160326979332222976 Jane Leach

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/JGW2vEic
http://twitter.com/avichai15/status/160327636621590528 Paul McGlynn

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/ROnUNYlX
http://twitter.com/sdbast/status/160330662077927425 sean bastable

#UK : DWP evidence says migrants aren ’t benefit cheats. DWP ’s spin says … http://t.co/uCGbGdLJ
http://twitter.com/therightarticle/status/160331506601037825 Michael

DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats. DWP’s spin says… – http://t.co/9nbD6NbR
http://twitter.com/ivanwhite48/status/160331892250513408 Ivan White

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/JGW2vEic
http://twitter.com/rdarlo/status/160332001189175296 Richard Darlington

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/W8wfvhJA
http://twitter.com/lisajames/status/160332021456060416 Lisa James

DWP evidence says migrants aren’t benefit cheats. DWP’s spin says… – http://t.co/9nbD6NbR
http://twitter.com/chrisg4347/status/160333777753751552 Chris Gravell

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/wdjstraw/status/160337381151612928 Will Straw

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/dannyboy30/status/160337842063683585 Dannyboy

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/fergusonkeith/status/160337967142014978 keith ferguson

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/2hay/status/160338750931611648 hayley

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/bristolnoborder/status/160338767733989376 1ofbristolnoborders

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/john_raftery/status/160338791993851904 john raftery

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/lkreitzman/status/160339474700713984 Leah Kreitzman

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/subimaginati/status/160339540475777024 Dawn Mckenna

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/shanec40/status/160342766818295808 Shane Crick

Chris Grayling's audible dog whistle on foreign benefit claimants isnt backed up by the facts shows @leftfootfwd http://t.co/RkzInccx
http://twitter.com/djmgaffneyw4/status/160342994858422272 Declan Gaffney

'It’s important to have a system everyone has confidence in' says minister while trying to undermine said confidence http://t.co/d2EjkOVd
Anonymous

Better kick out all the disabled people then.
Awake!

er…
if they claim they are draining, and if they take a job then a local has to claim. What’s hard about this for the writer to get.
1. There is a max number of jobs the economy can createw
2. If a migrant worker takes a job, there is, erm, 1 less job available. so a national has 1 less opportunity of getting a job.
NOT hard.
Or is the writer just excusing the facts that 2.5 MILLION were let in by the last lot (yawn)
Redisbleu

Oh FFS….I came to this country over 12 years ago, got married, held a job, still have one. I only just started claiming benefits last year under the urging of friends and social services who was horrified I was trying to take care of my son (a UK citizen, born to a man born-and-bred in Yorkshire). I care for my son 24/7 because his English father (who works in the banking centre, by the way) would find caring for his son “too expensive”. His own words.

I get paid a grand total of £55 a week for caring for my son – if he were put in residential care, it would cost £100,000 a year. Read that again: a year.

Since it seems they couldn’t kick the scrounger angle without us rising up getting irked, they’re now doing the great English xenophobic fallback – the immigrant scrounger. As has already been pointed out, it’s a ridiculously minimal amount of people like myself receiving benefits, just like “DLA fraud” but cold hard facts don’t seem to be stopping anyone. But I won’t be having it any more than the “disabled scrounger” rhetoric.
Bill Kruse

This concern about being able to answer questions in Parliament seems to be newly come to Minister Grayling. Just recently he was asked how people in wheelchairs, recently declared fit to work by the wildly expensive and generally wrong Atos tests, were supposed to get to any available work given that the Coalition are cutting all the bus services. His total reply was that this was a mess he’d inherited from the previous Labour goverment (the lady posing the question being a Labour MP, I should point out). Dearie me. Here we have a Minister of the Crown in one of the most advanced countries in the world with all the facilities at his disposal, and all he can do is fudge the question, this live on television, in front of the rest of the world, from the mother of Parliaments. Someone remind me, what are we paying him for again?
http://twitter.com/lilacwheelz/status/160404047613001728 Lilacwheelz

'It’s important to have a system everyone has confidence in' says minister while trying to undermine said confidence http://t.co/d2EjkOVd
http://twitter.com/postpolionews/status/160409382771900416 Chris Salter

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/twajpFaq #ppnews #wrb #spartacusreport
http://twitter.com/joelhcarter/status/160410066732855296 Joel Carter

Why collect data when all you're going to do is ignore it in favour of your would-be-discredited ideology? #migrants http://t.co/bqYV9oVe
http://twitter.com/rosenamc/status/160410656414248963 Rosena McKeown

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/twajpFaq #ppnews #wrb #spartacusreport
http://twitter.com/keithdavis36/status/160419156972404736 keith davis

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/twajpFaq #ppnews #wrb #spartacusreport
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2012/01/look-left-20-01-12/ Look Left – The human cost of the government’s inhumane welfare reforms | Left Foot Forward

[...] He claimed there were 371,000 benefit claimants, a claim described by NIESR’s Jonathan Portes as representing an “almighty mess”; as Alex Hern wrote: [...]
http://twitter.com/ndegenova/status/160443089318707200 Nicholas De Genova

@leftfootfwd #UK #immigration: contrary to anti-immigrant hype, evidence actually says migrants are NOT benefit cheats. http://t.co/dM0OcNpm
http://twitter.com/svenjat/status/160446190922645504 Svenja Timmins

@leftfootfwd #UK #immigration: contrary to anti-immigrant hype, evidence actually says migrants are NOT benefit cheats. http://t.co/dM0OcNpm
Nick Leaton

They aren’t optional.

Migrants are.
http://twitter.com/shezza_t/status/160464111782731777 Shereen T

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/sueg501/status/160470318148890624 sue gordon

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/U74pmm20 by @alexhern
http://twitter.com/pigovian/status/160495183782350848 Matt Barker

http://t.co/VE3smhgR #fb
http://twitter.com/ikeanya/status/160663639597133824 Ike Anya

DWP misusing statistics again, this time to smear immigrants. It is damaging the govt & the cause of welfare reform http://t.co/Y3zoSIor
http://twitter.com/aswabey/status/160692000000192512 Alex Swabey

DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/wvzbfkv1 (via Instapaper)
http://twitter.com/anducnguyen/status/160699410114813952 An Nguyen

371,000 benefit claimants from overseas: is it an "almighty mess", Minister Grayling? http://t.co/D6cR0YDH and http://t.co/q3WXBkUd.
http://twitter.com/oilywaters/status/160738272761495553 H. O.

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/Q9vXiJ3T
Ed’s Talking Balls

What a ridiculous comment and offensive to boot. Disabled people who cannot work are not idle; they need and deserve society’s support.

Those who come to these shores to sponge had a choice. Those who are born or become disabled did not.
Twig

Under democratic government, each party, when in power, considers itself under the obligation to invent new laws, often under the pleasing name of “social reform,” with a main view to adulating the mass of voters. These enactments interfere more and more with the order of our lives, and oblige all to subscribe to the pet theories of idealists, or the latest scheme elaborated for winning the applause of the mob, cheating it into the belief than an open sesame has been found to the earthly paradise.

http://againstpolitics.com/2011/10/12/surival-of-the-unfittest/
http://twitter.com/ligomersall/status/161028850933960704 liane gomersall

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/MQTgDJH8
http://twitter.com/jodatu/status/161030457151078401 John Turner

RT @leftfootfwd: DWP evidence says migrants aren't benefit cheats. DWP's spin says… http://t.co/MQTgDJH8