The gap between those who support Scottish independence and those who oppose it has narrowed, according to a new poll.
The gap between those who support Scottish independence and those who oppose it has narrowed, according to a new poll.
The findings, collected by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail, show that 38 per cent support independence compared to 47 per cent who oppose it. Earlier this month, similar polling by the same organisation had given the No camp a 20 per cent lead.
The poll is the first to be undertaken since the recent exchanges over a currency union, with the chancellor, together with the Liberal Democrats and Labour, having made it clear that they will not let an independent Scotland remain part of sterling.
Asked about their attitudes to the currency union, both those supporting and opposing independence have a strong preference for a currency union that would enable them to keep the pound (41 per cent for Yes voters and even more, 52 per cent, for No voters).
However, when asked what they expected to actually happen, only 23 per cent of No voters expected a currency union to come about. In contrast, 45 per cent of Yes voters believed that a currency union would come about.
No voters were more likely than Yes voters to take the pessimistic view that Scotland would end up using the pound with no currency union and no control over monetary policy (20 per cent held this view), and 23 per cent said they did not know what currency Scotland would end up with.
Yes voters were more confident, with just 9 per cent expressing uncertainty about the future of Scotland’s currency.
Interestingly, the intervention of the three main UK wide parties seems to have had little effect. The pollsters explain:
“Looking specifically at the intervention by the ‘three chancellors’ announcing they would not be willing to enter a currency union, the effects have simply been to harden the stance of supporters on both sides of the independence debate. Only 4 per cent of No voters and 3 per cent of Yes voters suggested it would make them at all more likely to consider the alternative option, though the reaction of solidifying support was stronger on the Yes side, due probably to a visceral reaction amongst nationalists against any suggestion of being threatened by English politicians.”
Responding to the results, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University observed that “when one looks at this poll, one has, at minimum, to conclude that it offers no evidence that the currency intervention has delivered the No side any immediate boost.”
Declaring the findings to be “exceptionally encouraging” for the Yes campaign, the SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon declared:
“It is clear that there has been a severe backlash to George Osborne’s bluster and threats on the pound – with more than half of the No campaign’s lead wiped out in just three weeks, and far more people more likely to vote Yes on the back of the Westminster establishment’s attempted bullying rather than No.”
Calling however on Alex Salmond to provide a plan B on the currency, Alistair Darling, head of the Better Together campaign, responded:
“We know that if we leave the UK, we are leaving behind the security of the pound.
“Scots are clearly saying to Alex Salmond that he cannot keep us in the dark.”
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21 Responses to “Yes to independence campaign gains significant ground”
Alec
With respect, Ed, the Survation poll should – until new data are provided – be taken with as much seriousness as Fish-heid NicMoonface’s argument during the Daily Politics. That is, sweet Felicity Arkwright.
Have you actually read is John Curtice’s assessment?
And here is the not so much oleaginuous Alex Salmond, as flapping around like a cod on the deck:
Yeah, and I bet he gets Megabus around Scotland or flies economy when attending international events… or even that there were no economy flights to Aberdeen. And how did he travel to Copenhagen 2009 and on whose purse?
This sort of political onanism would is at the level of Glasgow University SU’s choice of rector, not an elected representative leading a regional government nevermind a wannabe leader of an independent state. What a ridiculous buffoon.
~alec
Bill Cruickshank
This poll reflects what YES activists are finding on the doorstep and actually might be a rather conservative estimate of where the YES vote is at the moment. YES activists are finding canvass returns of 70+ for YES in Scotland’s housing schemes and poorer areas. It is also interesting to note that an excellent pro-indy speech given by Tommy Sheridan about three weeks ago has already had just short of 70,000 hits on U tube. It is amusing and at times disturbing to hear some of the ill informed comment coming from south of the border. Most of the abuse directed at SNP politicians and YES voters has been childish name calling, but some has been racist.
Anyone living in Scotland would surely agree that the country is changing fast. There is a new vibrancy and self confidence on the streets. The British Establishment are panicking and the bookies have dropped their odds from 12/1 to 3/1 on a YES vote. I am in no doubt that Scotland will vote YES.
Alec
No it doesn’t. See below.
Links?
~alec
Bill Cruickshank
I am a YES activist and I talk to other activists and this is what we are finding on the doorsteps and the streets. It makes no odds to me whether you believe what I am saying or not, We have a pretty good idea of which way the debate is running, the momentum is building for YES.
Alec
That’s very good for you. I am pleased that you have a hobby and likeminded friends.
You’re right, I don’t believe what you’re saying… not least because the opinion poll you’re citing in support of it cannot be taken to demonstrate what you say it does.
Can you provide a credible link to substantiate your claims, or are you making it up?
~alec