Today’s revelations in The Independent that the hunting community is being cajoled into supporting pro-hunting PPCs in marginal constituencies on the promise that a Conservative Government has promised a free vote on repeal of the Hunting Act, proves just one thing: the hunters’ own naivety.

The hunters set up “Vote OK”, a pretty innocuous sounding front for election campaigning by bloodsports enthusiasts, after the Hunting Act was passed in 2004, motivated they claim by Alun Michael MP who said that “…if people wish to continue their opposition to legislation, they have the option of the ballot box through which to express their views”. By supporting PPCs who promise to vote for repeal of the Act, Vote OK claim on their own website to have had impact in recent by-elections and are organising hard for the forthcoming general election.

The problem for the hunters is that public opinion is so far removed from their motivations, a fact highlighted by the Independent. Monthly polling by YouGov on behalf of the League Against Cruel Sports shows that support for repeal of the Hunting Act averages just 24%, with a further poll by ORB commissioned by the Countryside Alliance showing that just 19% support repeal. As the Independent said this morning:

“Most people don’t much like hunting, so the more they complain about their lost rights, the more opposition to their cause hardens.”

Vote OK claim to be promoting democracy but at the same time their website states their clear aim to “take country sports off the political agenda” which, by stifling debate and discussion, is fundamentally undemocratic. They claim to be politically independent and yet they are only working to oust anti-hunting Labour MPs in favour of pro-hunting Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. One of their key campaigners is an agent for a Conservative MP in Wiltshire. This is not political independence.

Their campaign also fails to acknowledge that there is support for the hunting ban right across the political spectrum. A grassroots campaign, Conservatives Against Fox Hunting, launched in January and data collected for our Keep Cruelty History campaign shows that a good number of Conservative PPCs would not support repeal. Amongst Liberal Democrats, support remains high and in some constituencies, such as Torbay, an anti-hunting Liberal Democrat is facing a challenge from an anti-hunting Conservative. Vote OK do not like to be beside that seaside.

Visitors to the Keep Cruelty History website can find out how PPCs in their constituency say they would vote on repeal of the Hunting Act, and many thousands of visitors are doing so. Savvy anti-hunting PPCs around the country are using hunting to raise other animal welfare issues, whilst pro-hunting PPCs are – predictably – tending to keep quiet.

Hunting might not be a key issue alongside health, education and law and order, but it does have a resonance with the public who firmly want to see hunting remain a thing of the past. The Independent leader this morning got it bang on in their “election advice to hunters: let sleeping dogs lie”.

Among other findings likely to cheer Scottish Labour were:

• 22% felt Labour was being most honest with them on the economy, compared with 14% for both Conservatives and Lib Dems;

• 47% felt the deficit should be reduced through cuts, as opposed to 34% who would back increases in taxes and 20% who didn’t know.

The findings will pile further pressure on the Conservatives to make clear their plans for public spending, not least after a ComRes poll for the BBC’s Daily Politics found Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling 6% ahead of Cameron and Osborne on trust on the economy.

Writing in the News of the World, Gordon Brown made clear before the party’s annual conference last year that Labour would cut the deficit in half over the next 4 years, a measure which has since be put on a statutory footing in the recently passed Fiscal Responsibility Act. As of yet, no clear commitment of this kind has come from the Conservatives.

What is more, given that making cuts to tackle the deficit appears more appealing to Scots than tax increases, despite public services accounting for 22% of the economy North of the border, the Chancellor’s message that cuts in the future could be worse than those under Thatcher appears to fit with Scots views on how to tackle the deficit.

Meanwhile, further polling over the weekend suggests Labour’s support is increasing at the expense of the Conservatives. The figures in Scotland on Sunday show that:

• Across Scotland, Gordon Brown’s lead over David Cameron has increased from 9% last month to 12% now;

• 45% disagreed with the “More Nats Means Less Cuts” message launched in Alex Salmond’s speech to the SNP’s spring conference last weekend, compared with 25% who supported it;

• Asked about voting intentions at the general elections, 37% said they would vote Labour (up 2% from last month), 18% backed the Conservatives (down 2%), SNP support was steady on 24% and Lib Dem support fell from 15% to 14%;

The polls came as Scottish Labour completed its spring conference in Glasgow, with a clear message that the SNP should be seen as the Conservatives in disguise. In speaking to delegates at the conference, Gordon Brown said:

“David Cameron has the support of his very own highland division – a Scottish national Party that talks left, but votes right, whose mps have followed the Tories through the lobby in 2 out of every 3 votes since 2005.”

In attempting to shrug of the polling data, Tory shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell insisted:

“In our 11 target seats across Scotland, our polling shows us poised to make gains in every corner of the country.”

However, in his analysis of the likely election results across Scotland, Lewis Baston, director of research at the Electoral Reform Society, wrote:

“The Conservatives still seem a weakened force, particularly in elections which are not proportional. While they should do better than their existing holding of one Westminster seat, their Commons delegation could well still fit into a taxi even if the party wins the UK election.”

Earlier this month, Left Foot Forward reported the findings of research for the Financial Times which reinforced the substantial difficulty that the Conservatives are going to have in their election campaign north of the border. The weekend’s findings will come as a boost to a Labour campaign which has been revived in recent months by a string of positive polling data, and a prediction by Tory grandee Lord Heseltine that the best the Conservatives could hope for would be a hung Parliament.

Today’s Ipsos-MORI poll in Daily Mirror says:

“First, 56% of those questioned think Labour is right to say public spending should not be cut immediately in case it risks the economic recovery. Mr Osborne wants to start slashing straight away. Second, only 32% say the Tories are right to claim the national debt is the greatest threat to the economy.”

Talking about the Mirror poll on last night’s Newsnight, Michael Crick said:

“Interestingly, some of the polling evidence suggests that the political pressure on Labour to [cut the deficit], as opposed to the economic and financial pressure, may not be what it was…

“It looks to an extent that Labour [is winning the argument] which partly explains why the Conservatives in recent months have modified their position.”

Meanwhile The Sun says:

“A YouGov poll for The Sun found a clear majority want Alistair Darling to start tackling the crippling £900billion national debt. Voters are demanding spending cuts NOW to pay for it.

“On spending cuts our poll shows 46 per cent agree “the longer they delay the worse it will get”. Just 36 per cent say the Chancellor should postpone taking action so the recovery is not affected – Labour’s policy now.”

The so-called “clear majority” is actually a 45:36 margin (it’s unclear where 46% came from) – somewhat lower than the 56:32 margin in the Mirror.

Both polls ask voters to rank the three contenders for Chancellor. The Mirror says:

“Asked who would make the most capable Chancellor, only 21% said Mr Osborne. The Lib Dem’s Vince Cable scored 32% and Mr Darling got 23%”

The YouGov poll found 23% for Cable, 17% for Darling, and just 13% for Osborne. The Sun did not publish these findings.

Another example of The Sun manipulating the facts appears when they state:

“In more bad news for Mr Darling, 54 per cent say he should lower the debt with spending cuts not tax rises, which he prefers.”

Of course, Mr Darling’s position (and that of the Tories) is actually that the deficit should be reduced through a combination of both spending cuts and tax rises. Only the Lib Dems want to see the deficit reduced entirely from spending cuts. As Left Foot Forward has shown previously, when the public are given a proper range of options including a mix of spending cuts and tax rises, there is a majority in favour of some tax rises.

Among the poll’s main findings are:

• 42% believe that Northern Ireland will be part of the UK by 2021, the same proportion who believe it will be part of a united Ireland by the same time;

• 42% of respondents describe themselves as Irish compared with 39% who call themselves British;

• 18% describe themselves as “Northern Irish”, a figure which increases to 24% when questioning just Protestants;

• If a referendum on a united Ireland were to be held today, 55% of respondents would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK, against 36% who would prefer the north and south to unite. However, 26% of the Catholics questioned would want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK, compared with 6% of Protestants who believe in a united Ireland; and

• 51% of respondents, across all sections of the community reported that difficulties faced by the Irish Economy make a united Ireland less likely.

The last referendum to be held on Irish Unity, in 1973, found that 98.9% of people favoured Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK, though nationalists boycotted the poll.

The calls could prove a catalyst for a renewed bout of calls for a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future. In 2002, the then Ulster Unionist Party leader, David Trimble, told his annual party conference that a vote on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future could lay the issue to bed for a generation. Similarly, in 2008, Sinn Fein’s regional development minister Conor Murphy called for a vote by 2016.

Speaking ahead of his St Patrick’s Day visit to the US, McGuinness said:

“I have no doubt that, as with previous trips, this trip will lead to investment and the creation of jobs in the future.”

The trip and opportunities available reflect the realities of Gordon Brown’s assertion last month that a deal on devolving policing and justice powers would provide the stability businesses need to invest in Northern Ireland and create much needed jobs. With significant investment now a very real possibility, it raises still more questions over the decision last week by the Ulster Unionists to be the only party at Stormont to vote against transferring policing and justice powers to Northern Ireland, a strong signal of a normalisation of the nation’s politics.

What is more, the UUP’s sole MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon, who last month confirmed she would not seek re-selection in protest at her party’s electoral pact with the Conservatives, made a clear side swipe at her party’s position on policing and justice; speaking to the BBC, she said:

“The real enemies are not fellow unionists in the DUP, those are not our enemies, in fact Sinn Fein is not our enemy. The enemies in this community are dissident republicans who if they had their way would continue to wreak havoc across Northern Ireland. I wanted all of the parties in the Executive to stand shoulder to shoulder in the face of dissident terrorism and say we have had enough, we are going forward together.”

A seperate analysis of 37 polls this year, carried out by Left Foot Forward – using data from UK Polling Report – shows that, on current trends, Labour is set to overtake the Conservatives in the week of the election, widely predicted to be May 6th.

Today’s C4 News poll results also reveal Gordon Brown is ahead of David Cameron on who is “best equipped to lead Britain out of current economic difficulties”, with Cameron also trailing Brown on whether the government should begin cutting the deficit this year and three-quarters of voters saying the Tory leader is “not much change or worse”.

In a St David’s Day poll commissioned by the BBC and undertaken by ICM research, when asked about the economy, respondents put Gordon Brown and first minister Carwyn Jones 23 points ahead of David Cameron and Welsh Conservative leader Nick Bourne.

In the same poll, voters were also clear in their support for Carwyn Jones’ leadership, just three months after he replaced Rhodri Morgan as first minister.

The results show somewhat of an impressive turnaround, coming less than a year since the Welsh Conservatives gained more votes across Wales in June’s European elections, coming ahead of Labour for the first time since 1918.

Reacting to the poll, junior Welsh minister and MP for Caerphilly, Labour’s Wayne David, said:

“This finding shows that people recognise the steps we have taken to support business and families through these tough times; steps opposed by the Tories.

“Despite the obvious good news for Labour in this poll, there will be no complacency from us and we will continue to fight tooth and nail for every vote right across Wales.”

For the Conservatives, their leader in Wales, Nick Bourne reacted:

“Wales can’t afford another five years of Gordon Brown. Labour has wrecked the Welsh economy. We need change to get the country back on its feet.”

And in Scotland, too, Labour appears to be picking up support at the expenses of the SNP. A poll for Scotland on Sunday found:

• Labour are now leading the SNP on voting intentions for Westminster by 17 points with Labour on 38%, the SNP on 21%, Conservatives on 20% and the Lib Dems on 15%;

• For the first time since it came to power in 2007, on voting intentions for Holyrood, the SNP have dipped below 30%, with Labour leading by 5 points, which would put them on course for a return to power in Scotland. Labour are on 33%, the SNP on 28%, and the Conservatives and Lib Dems are both on 16%; and

• 43% believe Gordon Brown is doing a good job compared to 36% who believe Alex Salmond is doing well and 28% who believe David Cameron is doing a good job.

What is more, the results in Scotland on Sunday are backed by similar polling in The Times, whose findings, if repeated at a general election with a uniform swing, would see the Tories winning just two seats in Scotland – one more than are present.

Additionally, YouGov have reported that 27% of Scots would support Scotland going independent, compared to 55% who are opposed. Faced with the prospect of a Conservative government, however, 31% of Scots would then support independence in a referendum. It lead Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University to conclude that the SNP’s independence plans “seems to be in tatters”.

Reacting to the poll results, Labour MP for Ochil and South Perthshire, Gordon Banks, said:

“Scots are taking a long, hard look at the SNP and the Tories and are not liking what they see.”

For the Conservatives, shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell reacted by saying the polls were:

“Proof that Alex Salmond should ditch his separation plans and get on with what he was elected to do.”

These results come just days after The Sunday Times reported that Labour had closed the gap on the Conservatives to 2%, and yesterday’s poll, which Left Foot Forward reported, that showed more voters – of all persuasions – opposed David Cameron’s attempts to scupper a referendum on electoral reform.

Speaking over the weekend, shadow defence secretary Liam Fox appeared to concede that Gordon Brown could find himself still in Downing Street after the election. He said:

“There is a distinct possibility that people could wake up with Gordon Brown on the steps of Number 10 for another five years.”

The survey also revealed only 16 per cent of the public as a whole thought Cameron was right to hold up the bill’s passage, with only 8 per cent of Labour and Lib Dem voters opposed to a referendum.

Willie Sullivan, campaign director of Vote For A Change, said:

“David Cameron’s got it wrong on voting reform. And even his own voters think so. He needs your votes to be our next Prime Minister, but he’s not prepared to give you a say on the future of your democracy. Trust is a two-way street.

“Voters want a debate. Conservative supporters want a debate. But David Cameron doesn’t. He needs to have a little more faith in his arguments and in the common sense of the voting public.”

Of more interest to Gordon Brown, however, will be the positive impact of his plans, the poll revealing 20 per cent of all voters are more likely to vote Labour as a result of his referendum pledge, against 11 per cent less likely. Among Liberal Democrat voters, the figure is 34 per cent more likely to vote Labour, only 7 per cent less likely.

When asked about reform of the Lords, the pattern is repeated. Fewer Conservative voters backed David Cameron’s plans that new hereditary peers should continue to be brought in to maintain their number at 92, by 46:42; overall, only 23 per cent of the public support Cameron’s plans.

Sullivan adds:

“In a matter of weeks this referendum faces a new barrier – The House of Lords. Cameron shouldn’t let his unelected friends in that Medieval Chamber block the modernisation of a Victorian one.”

Another headache for Cameron, says Prospect, is that when the Tories last won an election, under John Major in 1992, the Liberal Democrats won 20 seats – a number they have more than now trebled to 62.

Nearly all these additional seats are in natural Tory territory, with only a slim chance of turning blue.

The research was carried out by Peter Kellner, president of YouGov and one of the foremost authorities on polling, who explains that:

“Cameron’s task is made much harder by Britain’s unusually large block of third and minor party MPs. In 1979 there were just 28 such MPs, meaning Thatcher was able to govern comfortably having won just 71 more Tory than Labour MPs.

“But by 2005, that 28 had more than trebled to become 92. So this year, if the Tories manage to lead Labour by 71 — on the face of it a good result, given Labour’s lead of 158 after 2005 — Cameron will almost certainly not secure an overall majority.

“More significantly, as long as at least 70 MPs belong to a mix of Lib Dems and minor parties, future elections could throw up hung parliaments too.”

In his article, Kellner unveils his “seven pillars of electoral wisdom” for the election; these are:

1. To win, the Tories must carry the north, not just the south

Using the new boundaries, the Tories need 24 seats to wipe out Labour’s majority. If they are to become the largest party, they must take 40 more seats, many of which are in the Midlands. And to win an overall majority they must prevail in a third batch of seats, mostly in the north.

2. The election won’t be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of seats

Most MPs are safe. The real battleground comprises at most a third of the 650 seats, but this still means many millions of votes “really” matter. If an MP loses by, say, 97 votes, crying over not managing to gain an extra 49 voters makes no sense. To win a seat, a candidate needs around 20,000 votes; to single out the tiny number that comprises half-the-majority-plus-one is absurd.

3. Essex man and Worcester woman don’t decide elections

It is hard for journalists to resist finding “typical” voters in a marginal seat, and asking their views, but in general, it is rare for particular demographic groups to move very differently from the electorate as a whole.

4. The Lib Dems could deny David Cameron victory

Of the 17 seats won by Margaret Thatcher where the Tories have fallen into third place, nine were were won off them by Labour, but have in turn been taken by the Lib Dems. Almost all are out of reach for the Tories this time round. All in all, it will be surprising if net Tory gains from the Lib Dems climb above single digits.

5. Issues don’t win elections; valence does

Experts and political nerds hold strong positional views about many aspects of public policy. But most voters — and a large majority of floating voters — don’t, and are valence voters. They care mostly whether politicians are decent, honest, capable and on their side.

6. Polls have improved, but aren’t perfect

Pollsters were traumatised by their failure to predict the Conservative victory in 1992. All have since changed their methods, albeit in different ways; and new companies, like Kellner’s YouGov, have sprung up. Even so, the polls might not be right this time either. Things may be different, but it will not be possible to tell until afterwards.

7. Campaigns don’t win elections, but stuff happens

In general, election campaigns produce more noise than electoral movement. Most voters make up their mind before the campaigns start; and those who wait tend to divide fairly evenly between the main contestants. It is perfectly possible, however, that some major event could alter the course of this election, and so do enough to produce either a Tory landslide or a fourth Labour victory. If any of the leaders make an almighty gaffe in the tv debates, for example, he will suffer.

• The latest issue of Prospect Magazine is out today, and also contains a feature on the “Thameslink Tories”, the swing voters on the Bedford to Brighton mainline who could decide the election.

Thirty one per cent of those polled trust Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling “to propose policies that would reduce borrowing without harming Britain’s chances of recovering from recession”, against 30 per cent for David Cameron and George Osborne.

The figures for those who said they distrusted each party’s top two are equally split, 64 per cent not trusting Brown and Darling much or at all and 63 per cent distrusting Cameron and Osborne.

When asked whether they believed Britain would slide back into recession, the response of the public makes grim reading for those in charge. More than half of those polled believe this a likely possibility, with only 38 per cent thinking it unlikely – with only 6 per cent of voters saying it is very unlikely and the economy will grow steadily this year.

The findings were, however, slightly better for the Liberal Democrats, with 32 per cent of voters trusting Vince Cable and Nick Clegg against 49 per cent distrusting the pair not to harm the recovery.

Another point of note for the Lib Dems was that, when asked what they should do in the event of a hung parliament, 30 per cent of respondents said “form a coalition with Labour”, 26 per cent favoured a coalition with the Tories, 26 per cent said neither and 18 per cent didn’t know.

Though a narrow majority of the public still believes the voting system doesn’t need to be changed, yesterday’s ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday revealed, the difference (excluding don’t knows) - 50.5% to 49.5% - is less than in last week’s Politics Home poll, which showed:

“There is a slight tendency to oppose the system recently backed by Gordon Brown (by a margin of 53 per cent to 47 per cent, among those who said would vote and expressed a definite view)”

When broken down along party lines, however, only Labour voters are split – 49% against to 47% in favour – with Conservative and Lib Dem voters both showing healthy majorities in agreement with their respective leaderships’ stances, 59%-38% against electoral reform amongst Tory voters, 65%-34% in favour amongst Liberal Democrat voters.

Other interesting findings from yesterday’s poll include a majority of respondents – 56%:36% – agreeing with the statement “David Cameron is a slick salesman but I worry about what he is like underneath”, and 50% of the public agreeing that “Gordon Brown has a warm human side to him”.

The headline figures, though, were more encouraging for Mr Cameron, with support for the Conservatives up 2 points to 40% since the last ComRes poll, for the Independent on February 2nd, and Labour down 2 on 29%, with the Liberal Democrats also up 2 to 21%.