Budget hits the pause button on Scotland
Scotland’s finance secretary John Swinney yesterday published the Scottish government’s budget for 2014/15 and 2015/16.
Scotland’s finance secretary John Swinney yesterday published the Scottish government’s budget for 2014/15 and 2015/16.
Despite some headline-grabbing measures, last week’s Budget was another chapter in a series of spending decisions that once again highlight how Treasury officials, economists, and the politicians they advise rarely look at how their decisions pan out across the country.
Just under three quarters of voters do not believe the prime minister and chancellor appreciate the rising cost of living, according to a poll conducted by Survation for Progressive Polling.
Within just three months the OBR’s forecast for growth in 2013 has been halved. The economy now looks set to be smaller at the time of the next election than it was when the crash hit in 2008 and our recovery remains the slowest in over a century. When the government took office they thought this year would see the economy expand by 2.9 per cent – their own forecasts now show we won’t reach that rate of growth by 2017.
The economic case for a new approach has never been stronger.
George Osborne’s 2013 budget has received a tepid response in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
As the UK economy continues to flat line, at the centre of the chancellor’s Budget plans to stimulate growth is a £3 billion annual infrastructure budget much of which is earmarked for damaging and regressive road building projects. But experience shows that new roads seldom solve people’s transport problems.
The budget will increase inequality and the bias against the small business sector. It is another opportunity lost, but if you drink 1,000 pints to drown your sorrows you will save £10. Doesn’t that say it all?
The below graph shows the additional borrowing in each year compared to the estimates at the Autumn Statement in December.
George Osborne’s fairness claim torn apart by graph
George Osborne today made improving infrastructure one of the key planks of his strategy to compete in the “global race”. Any move in this direction is to be supported but the small print of the Budget, as so often, shows that his headline announcement today will barely scratch the surface of what the economy needs to get growing again.