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Northern Ireland

In the week that David McNarry declared himself to feel “abused” by the way he was dumped by UUP leader Tom Elliott, the Conservatives announced their plans to enter the world of Northern Irish politics on its own, a development which received a lukewarm reception at best.

In an editorial, the Newsletter argued:

“If the ‘new’ party is to survive then it will need a new and articulate team of spokesmen and candidates: and it really must be very careful not to become a refugee camp for disgruntled and electorally unsuccessful former members of the UUP.

“But the ultimate test will be the next round of elections. For if it doesn’t breach the eight per cent barrier and start winning seats it won’t be given a second chance to get it right.

“The brutal reality is that this really does represent the last - slightly desperate - throw of the dice for ‘Conservatives’ in Northern Ireland.”

Former UUP staffer Michael Shilliday, meanwhile, declared on the Slugger O’Toole blog:

“The Conservative Party has no hope in Northern Ireland without an existing local base, the best fit being the UUP. The UUP is visionless and increasingly rudderless without the Conservative Party (the real one that is, not what passes for it in Northern Ireland). Seems obvious what to do really.”

Amidst the on-going debate over the future of the Union, meanwhile, Sinn Fein deputy first minister Martin McGuinness argued that a referendum on whether the North wanted to join with the Republic could be held by as early as 2016.

Speaking to the Irish Examiner he concluded:

“It just seems to me to be a sensible timing. It would be on the question of whether or not the people of the Six Counties wish to retain the link with what is described as the United Kingdom, or be part of a united Ireland. It could take place anytime between 2016 or 2020-21.

“I don’t see any reason whatsoever why that should not be considered. I think, in all probability, the people who have got the power to put that in place won’t even contemplate it this side of the next Assembly elections, which conceivably could be 2015 or 2016.”

DUP MLA Peter Weir dubbed the remarks “unrealistic”.

Wales

Having received the most number of nominations for her campaign, Plaid Cymru Leadership hopeful Leanne Wood told of her aspirations for independence.

Writing in the Guardian, John Harris explained:

“Leanne Wood is rather different from most of the UK’s politicians.

“Forty years old and a mother of one, she still lives in the same street in the Rhondda Valley where she was born and brought up.

“She thinks the crash of 2008 should have “resulted in the rejection of capitalism and many of its basic economic and political assumptions”, and that the UK’s coalition amounts to a “hyper-competitive, imperial/militaristic, climate-change-ignoring and privatising government”.

“She is also a proud republican, who refuses to attend the kind of official events at which the Queen turns up, and was once thrown out of the Welsh Assembly for referring to the reigning monarch as “Mrs Windsor”. If any of this chimes with your general view of what’s wrong with the world, it’s fair to say that you’d like her.

“If Wood pursued her political career in Westminster, her opinions might ensure she was kept safely on the fringes. But in her home country, she is a high-profile voice - and the current favourite to take over the leadership of Plaid Cymru, the nationalist party who, until 2011, shared power in Wales with Labour.

“With the result due on 15 March, Paddy Power has 4-5 odds on to win; in her Cardiff office, there is a sense of quiet expectancy.

“The prospect of life as party leader is not the only reason for her air of energised enthusiasm.

“Being a senior Plaid Cymru figure, Wood believes in Welsh independence. And with Scotland set to vote on whether to stay part of the UK in 2014 and the future of the union being argued over as never before, Wood and her fellow Welsh nationalists think there is an unprecedented opening for the most fundamental of their beliefs.

“Certainly, if Scotland makes the leap and leaves a rump United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland (“Little Britain”, as it has recently become known), Wales’s marginal position will be self-evident: it will have 30 Westminster MPs to England’s 502, and bump against the political and economic dominance of the English south-east as never before.

“With that grim prospect on the horizon, Wood thinks these could be fertile times for her and her party.”

Health secretary Andrew Lansley, meanwhile, was snubbed by the Welsh government over demands that they let him know before the press, about their decision to fund both the removal and replacement of PiP breast implants.

In a letter seen by the BBC, Lansley wrote to Welsh health minister Lesley Griffiths:

“I would… like to take this opportunity to seek your assurance that in the future you will inform my department if the Welsh government decides to take a contradictory approach to a public health issue before we learn of it through the media, which was the case in relation to your comments regarding the replacement of PIP breast implants on the NHS.”

Responding, a spokesperson for the Welsh government declared:

“Andrew Lansley’s letter is arrogant and patronising. Behaving like devolution never happened flies in the face of the respect agenda so often talked about by the prime minister.”

Scotland

Ed Miliband used a speech in Glasgow to argue that social justice was best achieved with Scotland staying in the Union, arguing:

“I say let’s confront the real divide in our society.

“Not between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. But between the haves and the have-nots. So I am not here to tell Scots that Scotland cannot survive outside the United Kingdom. But I am here to tell you that we need to make Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, a fairer, more just, place to live.

“And we can do this best together.”

Assessing the speech, George Eaton at the New Statesman wrote:

“Buoyed by his victory on Stephen Hester’s bonus (he accused Cameron of failing to act as a “responsible shareholder”), Miliband presented his own brand of social democratic Unionism.

“The crux of his argument was that “the real divide” in Britain is not between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom but between “the haves and the have-nots”. The task of creating a “more equal, just and fair society” is one best performed by the nations of the UK working together, he said.

“He spoke of the Scotsman who founded the Labour Party (Keir Hardie), the Englishman who led the “most successful Labour government” in history (Clement Attlee) and the Welshman (Nye Bevan) who founded the NHS.

“In his Hugo Young lecture last week, Alex Salmond argued that an independent Scotland could serve as a “progressive beacon” for the rest of the UK, but Miliband turned this claim on its head.

“Scottish secession, he warned, would trigger a “race to the bottom” on bank regulation, wages and conditions at work. For instance, citing the example of Ireland, Salmond has pledged to slash corporation tax should Scotland win fiscal autonomy.

“Perhaps partly for this reason, Miliband argued for a single-question referendum, excluding the possibility of a “devo max” option.

“There are some in Labour, citing Donald Dewar’s echoing of devolution as “a process, not an event”, who argue that the party should embrace devolution max, which is favoured by a majority of Scots, as a positive alternative to independence.

“The danger in leaving devo max off the ballot paper, they note, is that Scottish voters conclude that the only way to win fiscal autonomy is to vote for full independence. But Miliband, like Cameron, seems wedded to the high-risk option of a one-question referendum.”

As “Fred the Shred” this week lost the “Sir” to become “Mr Goodwin”, Alex Salmond outlined his regrets at previous support for him.

He told the BBC:

“If we all had our time again we’d look at things differently. I think there are very few people who can justifiably say that they anticipated the full extent of the financial collapse – the financial crisis.

“I mean I know some people claim they did but I think if you examine the record you’ll find there’s very few people on the planet – and I am certainly not one of them – who anticipated it.

“So, yeah, of course, if we had the benefit of hindsight we’d do things differently and I am sure that is true of lots and lots of people.”

Also this week:

• Sign up to receive our weekly summary of the news from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Week Outside Westminster

• Swinney on Scotland currency – more questions than he answers? – Ed Jacobs

• “She calls her town a ‘s***hole’”: Irish newspaper smears Polish migrants – Alex Hern

• Conservatives in Northern Ireland – what’s the point? – Ed Jacobs

• Scottish independence would leave Trident dead – and the MoD don’t care – Kate Hudson, CND

• McGuinness in Irish unity poll call – Kevin Meagher

• UUP infighting as McNarry says he feels “abused” and has been “kicked in the teeth” – Ed Jacobs

• Miliband to outline vision of a fairer Union – Ed Jacobs

To receive The Week Outside Westminster in your inbox, sign up to the email service

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) published research (pdf) this week pointing to a growing sense of grievance in England to the devolved nations.

Summing up the results, IPPR director Nick Pearce concluded:

“English identity is on the rise and it is increasingly expressed in terms that are resentful of the devolution settlement… Our mainstream political parties need to embrace Englishness.”

Scotland

Another week and the same issue continued to dominate Scottish politics, as the Alex Salmond independence band wagon continued at speed.

Having used the Hugo Young Lecture on Tuesday to argue that an independent Scotland would provide a “beacon of progressive opinion” for the rest of the UK, Burns Night saw the Scottish government publish its consultation on a referendum.

With polling for the New Statesman pointing to those in favour of independence being just one per cent behind those against, the Herald’s editorial on Thursday concluded:

“This consultation document and its Westminster cousin offer a vital opportunity to test public opinion on this most compelling of matters: the future of the United Kingdom and Scotland’s relationship with its constituent parts.

“It has suited the Westminster government to cast doubt on the credibility of a plebiscite organised by the Scottish government.

“The true test of that credibility, however, now lies with Mr Salmond. Having opened his proposals to public consultation, he and his Government must take on board the comments and criticisms and heed the will of the Scottish people whose interests he holds so dear.

“Scottish Labour’s new leader Johann Lamont made the point yesterday that the first minister does not speak for all the Scottish people. It is a valid point, given that he does not miss an opportunity to assert that the SNP expresses the will of Scots. Yet, until today’s New Statesman survey, the polls had continued to show that a minority favour independence.

“Mr Salmond has had his first big say. The opposition parties at Holyrood must now engage in making a positive case for the Union. There is a will to make sure that the referendum is legal, fair and decisive.

“It can be so as long as many people as possible make their views during the consultation period. The opportunity must be seized so that there is no room for dubiety or dispute when the people of Scotland take part in the most momentous vote in 300 years.”

At the Guardian, meanwhile, the paper’s Whitehall correspondent, Polly Curtis sought to establish how fair the SNP’s proposed question (Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?) was.

She explained:

“The experts I heard from don’t believe that the SNP’s question is the fairest phrasing on the question.

“Asking people to agree with something is more likely to elicit a positive response than asking them to disagree. The emerging “no” campaign would prefer to campaign on a question that asks people whether they would like Scotland to remain in the union – their favoured outcome. For the same reasons, this also wouldn’t be the fairest option.

“The fairest way would be to give the two options – independence or remaining in the union – and let people decide.

“However, John Curtice said that the phrasing of the question in this referendum is unlikely to have a very profound impact. Phrasing is far more important on issues that people don’t understand the ins and outs of, such as the AV referendum. With the Scottish referendum on independence people are likely to be well versed in the debate.”

Elsewhere, independent MSP Margo MacDonland reignited the debate over assisted suicide by reintroducing a bill on Tuesday to allow it in Scotland.

Summing up the difficulties the proposals will cause, the Herald wrote on Wednesday:

“With the exception of abortion, it is hard to think of a more emotive and contentious area of public debate and medical ethics than assisted dying.The rest of life demands of us few more agonising choices than those surrounding birth and death.

“In late 2010 Margo MacDonald’s end of life assistance bill was rejected by 85 votes to 16 at Holyrood. Yet yesterday the Independent MSP was back in the chamber with a new bid to legalise assisted suicide.

“Her return to this issue, so soon after her first bill was so decisively rejected, testifies to her impressive campaigning zeal on this issue, a zeal intensified by her own Parkinson’s diagnosis.

“It is also a reflection of the way the ground is shifting in this debate. With new members making up one-third of the Scottish Parliament and opinion polls suggesting growing support for the right to be helped to die, it would be a mistake to write off her chances of success this time around.”

Wales

First minister Carwyn Jones used a press conference to distance himself from Ed Miliband’s support for a cap on public sector workers pay.

Arguing that such a policy would be fundamentally unfair, he told journalists:

“I think it’s absolutely crucial that people see that those who are paid the most in financial services, those who the public believe were responsible for our current economic difficulties, pay their fair share as well.

“I don’t believe that this is being done and as a result I think it’s very difficult to say to those who work in the public sector, who didn’t cause the economic difficulties, that we have to bear the brunt of pay cuts when it isn’t happening in those sectors which are more appropriate.”

As the Scottish parliament grappled with the issue of assisted suicide, in Wales leaders of the main Christian denominations made clear their objections to the government’s proposals for a system of presumed consent for organ donation.

Outlining their fears, the Archbishop of Wales, Dr Barry Morgan, George Stack, the Catholic Archbishop of Cardiff, and The Very Reverend Archimandrite Father Deiniol, of the Wales Eastern Orthodox Mission, argued:

“Pastors, theologians and church leaders of all denominations agree that offering organs for donation is a significant act of charity, and a reflection of God’s freely-given love and care for us, including the gift of life.

“The positive ethos of donation as a free gift is endangered by an ill-judged if well intentioned proposal to move from voluntary donation to presumed consent.

“It is of extreme concern that while responses are being invited on the proposals in the white paper, the central proposal, which is the shift from donation to presumed consent, is presented as a fait accompli.

“There is a real danger that a change in the law would alienate a significant proportion of the public and undermine the positive image of organ donation and the reputation of Wales.”

Responding to the concerns, health minister Lesley Griffiths argued:

“We have made great progress in Wales in increasing the number of actual donors. However, there is still a shortage of organs and this is something the Welsh government wants to change by introducing a new way of making a person’s wishes known.

“International evidence shows organ donation has risen in other countries which have opt-out systems. I believe introducing a soft opt-out system in Wales, together with an ongoing public awareness campaign, will help increase the number of organs available.”

Northern Ireland

After it was claimed that the UUP and DUP had held secret meetings over a possible merger, one DUP strategist and blogger argued for a debate about the potential for such a move.

Writing in the Newsletter, Lee Reynolds, a councillor for north Belfast, concluded:

“Unionism has two electoral challenges - falling turnout and the need to expand its electoral base beyond its traditional community (without alienating the existing base).

“There is the political challenge of making Northern Ireland a beacon of political, social and economic success within the Union and regaining the global presence it once enjoyed. None of these tasks are easy.

“There are also shifts in voter attitude going on among the electorate that unionism needs to be conscious of.

“The present structures, relationships and attitudes among the unionist parties have been shaped by the peace process. Northern Ireland’s politics has begun to move on from the politics of the peace process.

“As we look forward to the centenary of Northern Ireland in 2021, would focusing our efforts on these challenges and changes not produce greater benefits for the Union and unionism than finding arguments for the sake of them?

“Unionist unity could be an opportunity to create something new and better. This is its litmus test. If after a thorough, intense and constructive debate the conclusion is that we can create something better then we should proceed.

“If it doesn’t then we shouldn’t. The debate itself is something no unionist or anyone else in Northern Ireland should be fearful of.”

In a sign of further progress meanwhile, Sinn Fein deputy first minister Martin McGuinness declared that he still hadn’t ruled out the possibility of meeting the Queen.

Reflecting on her visit to Dublin last year, he told BBC Ulster’s “Inside Politics” programme:

“I’ve made it clear that the visit of Queen Elizabeth of Britain to the south, was something that we looked at with considerable interest.

“And I think the fact that she was prepared to recognise the importance of the Irish language; that she was prepared to stand in a very dignified way to honour those patriots who struggled in 1916 to bring about a free and independent 32-county Irish Republic, that made an impact upon me.

“So that’s an issue that I will ponder and I wouldn’t rule anything out.”

Also this week:

• Sign up to receive our weekly summary of the news from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Week Outside Westminster

• Regressive of the week: Alex Salmond – Shamik Das

• Salmond’s Scottish referendum is a textbook example of a leading question – Alex Hern

• Progressives need a positive vision for Scotland – Ed Jacobs

• Déjà vu as Scottish referendum campaign turns nasty – Mike Morgan-Giles

• Salmond has questions to answer, because the evidence doesn’t support him – William Bain MP

• Hughes makes the case for an English Parliament as Salmond faces fresh scrutiny – Ed Jacobs

To receive The Week Outside Westminster in your inbox, sign up to the email service

Cabinet Office minister Mark Harper this week announced the establishment of a commission to address the West Lothian question, opening a can of worms over the future of the UK constitution.

Writing of the announcement, IPPR director Nick Pearce explained:

“English votes on English laws (EVOEL), which would bar Scottish MPs from voting on English matters, sounds like a seductively simple solution to the West Lothian anomaly, but as Gladstone discovered during the Irish home rule debates of the 19th century, it is notoriously difficult to make work in practice.

“In 1964 and February 1974, UK Labour governments were formed despite the Conservatives holding a majority of English seats.

“Under EVOEL such governments would be unable to legislate for English domestic policy.

“It has often been argued that such chaos would create a greater constitutional anomaly than that generated by West Lothian itself.”

Scotland

The ongoing debate over Scottish independence rumbled on as the  Sunday Telegraph released polling showing English voters were more supportive than the Scots about the idea of independence; a date was set for a meeting between Alex Salmond and Scottish secretary Michael Moore and the SNP officially rejected suggestions that ex-pat Scots should have a vote in the referendum.

News however that unemployment across Scotland has increased by 19,000 and growth was just half a per cent in the third quarter of 2011 concentrated minds on the substance of the issue, namely the impact independence would have on the Scottish economy.

Looking ahead to the publication next Wednesday of the Scottish government’s consultation document on a referendum, Eddie Barnes, political editor of the Scotsman, argued:

“While the political class in Scotland has spent the last week poring over the minutiae of the referendum and the relative merits of devo-more, devo-plus and devo-max, the reality of the flatlining economy is still the main issue for most voters.

“The SNP knows this well. And it knows it cannot make the case for independence without aligning it alongside peoples’ real lives. So it has made crystal clear, internally and externally, that the economy has to be the central argument. So the GDP figures, out on Mr Salmond’s big day, may serve the SNP’s purpose.

“Against the prospect of a flatlining Britain, the First Minister can be expected to conjure up his usual alluring message of how Scotland can, with independence, go its own way and prosper.

“For the SNP’s opponents, this is a battleground they appear to fancy. The SNP may want to focus on pound-in-your-pocket arguments. Their opponents will respond by warning that if the SNP get their way, that pound could end up being a euro.

“The thorny issues of an independent Scotland’s currency and the economic handcuffs the country would still have to wear, independence or not, offer them rich pickings.

“But SNP figures claim to be entirely untroubled. People, they say, just see these attacks as the usual noise that goes with the territory whenever the words “Scotland” and “independence” are raised.

““If anything the negative attacks serve to undermine voters’ trust in those making them,” claims one senior SNP adviser.

That all has a ring of truth. In former times, it was fear of the cost of independence which proved the SNP’s Achilles heel. But, as Britain continues its long march into austerity, it is clear that the old assumptions - like so many others than existed pre-crunch - may no longer apply.”

Justice secretary Kenny MacAskill, meanwhile, formally launched the government’s plans for a single police and fire services across Scotland, declaring:

“The stark reality is that budget cuts from Westminster will devastate our excellent frontline services if we don’t act now. This government will not be complacent, we will not compromise on public safety and we will make sure that every community is served and served well.”

A spokesperson for UNISON however had a warning over potential job losses, telling the Daily Record:

“We have either already lost or are about to lose 450 civilian staff, so perhaps the same number again will be under threat as a result of efficiencies. But that’s a guess. No one has a clue because we don’t know yet how the new single force will operate.”

Northern Ireland

First minister and DUP leader, Peter Robinson, used an interview with UTV on the threat posed to the Union by the SNP to advance a case for the DUP and UPP to merge.

Calling for the two parties to “uphold the integrity of the United Kingdom” he continued:

“We are in a year when we are looking back to the centenary of the signing of the covenant and the cohesiveness that there was within the unionist community at that time.

“I would like to see that coming about again. I think you probably will have noted that over the last number of months, some of the heat that there has been in the exchanges between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists has now been removed and there is a much improved relationship. I hope we can build on that.”

Finance minister Sammy Wilson, meanwhile, used an interview with BBC Radio Ulster to tell unions warning about future public sector job losses to “shut up”. He did so as figures from the Irish Congress of Trade Unions pointed to Northern Ireland losing more public sector workers, 26,000, than anywhere else the UK by 2017.

Responding to the figures shadow Northern Ireland secretary Vernon Coaker argued:

“I am very concerned by the findings of this report which predicts that Northern Ireland will have the highest number of public sector job losses of any UK region.

“The Tory-led government’s spending cuts and tax rises go too far and too fast. The impact of their disastrous economic policies – which handed Northern Ireland a cut of £4 billion to its budget - has choked off the economic recovery and put more people out of work, meaning the government is set to borrow £158 billion more than planned.”

Wales

Former Welsh secretary Paul Murphy used on-going rumblings about the future of the union to argue in favour of regional devolution for England.

Speaking to Radio Wales’s “Sunday Supplement” about the UK Parliament he concluded:

“In effect it is an English parliament in the sense that they’ve got in England far more members of parliament than Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales put together. That’s why we were arguing very strongly about the number of Welsh members of parliament, to keep our voice up.

“Despite that, there are ways and means, it seems to me, we need to examine how the English regions might react to further development. Although it didn’t work before when we had a referendum in the north east of England, I’m not quite so sure these days that English devolution within in the regions is off the map.

“People should consider now having regional government in England as a means by which we progress constitutionally.”

Plaid Cymru meanwhile published a review of its operations which recommended that the party should provide greater clarity about its objectives in relation to independence and should consider changing its name to the Welsh National Party. Writing on the suggestion of a name change, branding expert Sara Robinson of Cake Communications in Cardiff wrote for BBC News:

“If it goes ahead it will be a radical departure for the party. There is a misconception that Plaid Cymru is the party for Welsh speakers, but they have come a long way in the last 20 years.

“They have many non-Welsh speaking members, as well as AMs and councillors, who represent areas which are not traditionally Welsh speaking. But if you didn’t know that, then you would be forgiven for assuming it’s a party for Welsh speakers because a Welsh language brand gives that impression.

“In that sense, their brand isn’t truly reflecting the party as it is today and isn’t working hard enough for them as it doesn’t have the wide appeal the party needs.

“I am sure there will be a lot of debate around the right and wrongs of dropping the Welsh language element [in English] of their brand.

“But just as any business would take a long, hard look at how it markets itself after a period of poor results, I think it’s only logical that the party undergoes a period of reassessment after disappointing recent elections.”

See also:

• Sign up to receive our weekly summary of the news from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Week Outside Westminster

• What’s the point of the UUP? – Ed Jacobs, January 19th 2012

• Khan attacks “partisan tinkering” of the constitution – Ed Jacobs, January 17th 2012

• Win or lose, Scottish independence referendum heralds a revolution in UK politics – Ed Jacobs, January 16th 2012

• The Week Outside Westminster – Sending Osborne to save the Union – Ed Jacobs, January 14th 2012

As the debate over the future make-up of the United Kingdom rumbles on, with Alex Salmond using an interview on the BBC’s “Sunday Politics Scotland” programme to call for a meeting between him and the prime minister, one former Labour cabinet minister has called for the debate to include a re-examination of the prospects for regional devolution in England.

With the Boundary Commission for Wales last week announcing its plans to cut by a quarter the number of parliamentary constituencies in Wales, the Labour MP and former Secretary of State for Wales and Northern Ireland, Paul Murphy, has called for measures to prevent the dominance of England within the union.

Speaking to BBC Radio Wales’s “Sunday Supplement” programme, Murphy argued:

“In effect it is an English parliament in the sense that they’ve got in England far more members of parliament than Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales put together.

“That’s why we were arguing very strongly about the number of Welsh members of parliament, to keep our voice up.”

Though admitting that Labour’s in 2004 to establish an assembly in the north east of England had failed, Murphy argued the climate was such that English regions might be prepared to re-assess the case for regional devolution, concluding:

“Although it didn’t work before when we had a referendum in the north east of England, I’m not quite so sure these days that English devolution within the regions is off the map.

“People should consider now having regional government in England as a means by which we progress constitutionally.”

Murphy’s comments come as the latest in a string of developments which are beginning to focus on what the consequences of an independent Scotland might be.

Speaking at Friday’s British-Irish Council meeting in Dublin, Welsh first minister, Carwyn Jones, whilst expressing his hope Scotland would remain in the Union, argued changes would be needed if Scotland was to go it alone.

Speaking to journalists he argued:

“You can’t just take Scotland out and expect the UK to continue as before. You would have for example, a Parliament in London with about 550 MPs, 510 of whom would be from England. Well that’s no good to us at all.

“There would need to be a fundamental rethink of the nature of the relationship between the three nations left within the UK in order to make sure that, what was then the UK, was a stable body where people felt that they had full representation.”

Expanding on his thoughts, speaking to the Guardian’s chief political correspondent, Nick Watt, Jones suggested a reformed House of Lords could be used as an opportunity to prevent English dominance, explaining:

“Why not have an upper house with equal representation from England, Wales and Northern Ireland - same as the Senate. It would be more of a federal structure.

“It is up to the people of Scotland what they do but it is certainly not the case that somehow things would carry on as normal.”

For David Williamson, political editor at the Western Mail, the developments are a growing sign of the Celtic nations asserting themselves within the union.

In the wake of Carwyn Jones’s comments to the Guardian, he wrote:

This came days after Mr Jones made it clear that he would speak up for Wales on international issues.

Speaking in the Senedd, he said:

“[Where] Wales’s interests are under threat, where we need a strong voice in Europe, and where it is important that Wales has a stage in the world, I will continue to put Waless view forward and to stand up for Wales, even though there are those who claim that the people of Wales have no right to a say through their elected Government; I reject that claim out of hand.”

When Alun Michael entered the old Assembly debating chamber for the first time as Labour First Secretary in 1999, did anyone imagine that in 2012 a Labour first ninister would argue that he spoke for the people of Wales on the world stage and that the institution he led was their elected government? Who would have thought there would not be a Labour first minister in Scotland?

“Regardless of whether the SNP wins or loses the referendum, a revolution has already taken place in UK politics.

“Historians may look at this extraordinary evolution as a result of a growing sense of Welsh and Scottish nationhood, hastened by anger at the Westminster expenses scandal, the bloodshed in Iraq and the bail-out of bonus-rich bankers.

“But they will also talk about the Salmond effect. Judging by the plutonium-grade energy of this political maestro, whom the Economist recently compared to a teddy bear driving a bulldozer, we have yet to feel the full force of his ambition, plans and will.”

See also:

• Plaid Cymru claim independent Wales could be 39% richer – Ed Jacobs, August 2nd 2011

• “Perverse” cuts to regional funding will set back growth – Kevin Meagher, February 2nd 2011

• Cable’s folly conceals 80 per cent funding cut to regions – Kevin Meagher, October 28th 2010

• The growing divide between north and south – Kevin Meagher, August 16th 2010

• Commission calls for greater financial freedom for Wales – Ed Jacobs, July 7th 2010

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Scotland

There was only one story in town across Scotland this week.

Having used his New Year interview on the Andrew Marr Programme to call for a referendum on Scottish independence sooner rather than later, David Cameron fired the starting gun on what will become an increasingly bitter campaign with Alex Salmond.

Following Scottish secretary, Michael Moore outlining plans to provide Holyrood with the powers needed to provide for a legally binding referendum, provided it was on a straight yes/no question, Alex Salmond trumped Westminster again by announcing a vote would take place in Autumn 2014, although he was at pains to argue that it had absolutely nothing at all to do with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn.

The week’s madness peaked on Wednesday with a rare display of unity at PMQs over the subject as Dave C agreed with Ed M and Ed agreed with Dave.

In his sketch for the Guardian on Wednesday, Simon Hoggart wrote of the week’s events:

The first Prime Minister’s Questions of 2012, and the main topic was Scottish independence. We will hear of little else for the next few years. Already the debate has achieved a mad, surreal air.

For example, someone in No 10 must have thought to themselves: “What the Scots really hate are posh, arrogant, public school-educated Englishmen who know what’s best for everyone else. So let’s put George Osborne in charge of the campaign to keep Scotland in the UK!”

Perhaps it’s a double bluff. As the SNP MP Angus Robertson pointed out on Tuesday: “The Conservative party has fewer MPs in Scotland than there are giant pandas in Edinburgh Zoo.” If Scotland does break away, it could guarantee Tory governments at Westminster for the foreseeable future.

So perhaps David Cameron is secretly in favour of breaking up the UK, and knows that the more he (and George Osborne) bang on about the need to keep the nation together, the more likely Scots will vote for separation. He stresses how much we all have in common, including “shared economic interests”.

I wonder if that includes the £65bn shovelled across as a bailout for the great Scottish banks, RBS and HBOS, more than £3,500 per English household?

“Meanwhile, the SNP position is even more confusing. As elucidated by Mr Robertson yesterday, the party won a large majority in the last Scottish election with a promise to hold a referendum. But because they have such a big majority, they have the right to hold the referendum whenever they please, ie when they think they are most likely to win it.

The SNP’s rousing battle-cry is: “Scotland demands the right to choose freedom! But not quite yet.”

While the BBC’s Scottish Political Editor, Brian Taylor, concluded:

“The contest for the future of the Union has yet to take place. But it is taking shape.”

Wales

Officially, shadow Welsh secretary, Peter Hain declared the proposals for new parliamentary constituencies in Wales, which will see the number of MPs cut from 40 to 30, were “diabolical”.

Unofficially however, Labour will have been relieved that it is the Tories and Lib Dems that look set to be the biggest losers from the review.

Giving his assessment of the proposals, BBC Wales’ parliamentary correspondent David Cornock said of Labour’s position:

“Labour have used the G-word – gerrymander – but are privately relieved that their high-profile MPs should be able to avoid fighting each other in brutal selection contests for new seats. Where Labour-held seats disappear, natural retirements or the House of Lords may offer a way out.”

Of the other parties he continued:

“Plaid Cymru have highlighted some of the arguments put forward when the cut was initially suggested – that villages in the same community are being split and other communities are being joined despite being separated by mountains.

“The Liberal Democrats face uncertain futures in their heartlands, but life is more complicated for their Conservative coalition partners, the architects of the cut in MPs.

“The Wales Office minister David Jones – the only Welsh Tory currently a departmental minister – will see his Clwyd West seat dismembered.

“There is a potential battle in Pembrokeshire between the government whip Stephen Crabb and Simon Hart.

“Glyn Davies, parliamentary private secretary to the secretary of state for Wales, whose Montgomeryshire seat is carved up, said he was “hugely disappointed by the changes”.”

Not to be outdone meanwhile by their nationalist brothers and sisters in Scotland, Simon Thomasm one of the candidates vying to take the leader’s post in Plaid Cymru, concluded the break-up of the United Kingdom was “inevitable”.

Outlining his thinking, the AM and former MP argued:

“Everyone in Wales tends to look at the SNP and think ’they are doing wonderfully’, but the SNP had to go about winning two general elections in Scotland first – and we have never won a general election yet.

“Unless we are serious about independence and serious about taking Wales forward, we have to set our aims on winning power and winning elections in Wales.

“Independence for me would mean the break-up of the UK as we know it. That may sound like the most ridiculous thing you’ve ever heard, but the UK as we know it today is only 90 years old. People tend to think that we’ve got some kind of long-lasting medieval kingdom here, it’s only been going around for less than a century.

“I don’t think it will last another century and there will be huge changes in the United Kingdom. Scotland may be the most obvious reason there, but Northern Ireland has an interesting future ahead of it – as does Wales.

“I don’t think we exist to dream of an independent Wales, we exist to make independence a reality.”

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland secretary, Owen Paterson, outlined plans to convene meetings to enable Northern Ireland’s politicians themselves to address the vexed issue of reconciliation.

Welcoming the move, an editorial for the Belfast Telegraph concluded:

“One of the most vexed issues in Northern Ireland is how to deal with remembering the past. This is partly because of the horrific experiences of people on all sides, and also the difficulty of reconciling each memory of that past.

“The pitfalls in handling this sensitive issue were well-illustrated by the Eames-Bradley report of several years ago. After long consultations it produced some useful ideas, but it never recovered from the recommendation of a £12,000 ‘recognition payment’ for the families of all victims.

“The search for a solution continues, and it is therefore a welcome sign that secretary of state Owen Paterson is attempting to chart a way forward with a series of separate meetings with the Stormont parties.

“One of the problems, however, is that so far there is no consensus, so finding a way forward will not be easy. The secretary of state is giving a lead by holding the meetings, but he is right to point out that it is not up to the Government to impose a solution.

“This is a matter for the Northern Ireland people themselves, and for the politicians who represent them. This will require a large element of give and take, and all sides will be required to show particular awareness of the particular sensitivities involved.”

As talks meanwhile continued over future appointments to the post of Justice Minister, both Sinn Fein and the DUP proposed the axing of the Alliance led Department for Employment and Learning in an attempt to trim the size of the Stormont government.

Threatening to resign as justice minister over the issue, Alliance leader, David Ford was unsurprisingly unconvinced by the suggestion, saying of the proposal:

“If they can change the system - not in any rational coherent way - but simply to spite us, then is there any reason why we shouldn’t assume that they will take justice off us, as soon as it suits them.

“This is a political carve-up, it is nothing to do with good government.”

See also:

• Sign up to receive our weekly summary of the news from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Week Outside Westminster

• Devo-max isn’t a solution, it’s a whole new can of worms – Matt Gwilliam, January 11th 2012

• Salmond trumps Westminster (again) – Ed Jacobs, January 11th 2012

• Cameron got it wrong on Scotland, and he probably knows it – Ed Jacobs, January 10th 2012

• SNP: Cam’s “economic uncertainty” argument is nonsense; we’ll stick to our timetable – Humza Yousaf MSP, January 9th 2012

• Scottish Labour leader: “I want the referendum to be held as quickly as possible” – Johann Lamont MSP, January 9th 2012

• It’s time to get real over threat to the union – Ed Jacobs, January 9th 2012

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Scotland

As the much anticipated Iron Lady was finally aired in cinemas across the country, first minister Alex Salmond used an interview with the Scotsman to outline the part he felt he played in Thatcher’s eventually downfall.

Speaking of the time he broke conventions and intervened in 1988 on Nigel Lawson’s budget he concluded:

“Some would say it took me from obscurity to prominence, but I intervened on Nigel Lawson during the budget to protest at the poll tax. I said this is an outrageous tax on the poor, while giving tax cuts to the rich at the same time.

“The whole of the Tory benches roared at me and the Commons authorities switched off my microphone.

“I had thousands of letters about this in Banff and Buchan, a lot of which were supportive. This was people saying the poll tax is unacceptable and we’re not having it.  We later saw the downfall of Thatcherism.

“The budget speech helped to kick-start the idea that the Thatcher government was not impregnable.”

However Labour MP for Aberdeen North, Frank Doran, who was in the Commons that day, dubbed Salmond’s interpretation of the event and its significance as “fantasy”.

Meanwhile, as Salmond called on world leaders to make 2012 a year of “climate justice”, he faced criticisms at home as it emerged his government had quietly dumped efforts to stabilise the number of car journeys on Scottish roads whilst admitting just 14% of the government car fleet were fuel efficient.

Calling for greater action to tackle the scourge of climate change, Labour’s shadow environment minister, Claire Baker, responded:

“We have set really tough climate change laws in Scotland, but we need a credible plan to meet the targets. Transport and housing are predicted to be the biggest polluters in coming years so we have to make changes.

“We need a serious, credible, and urgent plan to implement our climate change laws in a way that is fair and economically sustainable.”

Wales

Plaid Cymru formally opened nominations for candidates to lead the party, with results due in March.

As the party’s chief executive, Rhuanedd Richards, spoke of 2012 being a “very important year” for the party, the BBC’s Wales political editor, Betsan Powys, said of the contest ahead:

“Having lost ground in last May’s election and with their leader stepping down, Plaid Cymru have spent the last few months reviewing what should be done differently.

“Offering their solutions, four assembly members who want to lead the party: the early though not outright favourite, former agriculture minister Elin Jones; the favourite of the left, Leanne Wood; the former presiding officer Lord Dafydd Elis Thomas; and former MP and party adviser Simon Thomas.

“They’ll need to spell out their positions on issues like future coalitions and independence, as well as the current economic challenges facing Wales.

“There’s an alternative element to the vote with second preferences involved – it means that prediction is a fool’s game, as any Miliband brother will tell you.”

As voters prepare to elect the first police commissioners in November, meanwhile, one former Labour Home Office minister outlined his intention to stand.

Explaining his decision to contest the post of commissioner in South Wales, the Cardiff South and Penarth MP, Alun Michael, declared:

“Few aspects of the public service are more important than the police, for we invest them with significant powers but we expect them to risk their lives to protect individuals and communities.

“Governance of the police is a key issue in a democracy, and whether we think that the creation of police commissioners is a good idea or an expensive diversion at a time of massive cuts, the legislation is in place, so it’s going to happen and we must make it work.”

Northern Ireland

Announcing plans for an 18-month rotation of who fills the party’s ministerial post in the Stormont Executive, SDLP leader Alisdair McDonell made clear he was not contemplating a move into opposition.

He said:

“Removing our team from the Executive would in effect remove us from any influence we have there. If you have a house, even if it is a bad house, you don’t give it up and go and pitch a tent in the street, in the snow – that’s the point.”

However, responding to the announcement in the Belfast Telegraph, Henry McDonald wrote:

“When it comes to Titanic metaphors, the SDLP is the party that just keeps giving.

“Last year during the leadership battle to succeed Margaret Ritchie, this writer suggested that the SDLP was in danger of sinking into oblivion and that unless a new radical course was plotted at the helm of the party, it was as doomed as the ill-fated ship, whose 100-year commemoration occurs in 2012.

“Now we have that ‘radical’ idea from the recently elected leader, the South Belfast MP Alasdair McDonnell. He is going to have rotating ministers who will only stay in a portfolio for one year at a time. Radical? It sounds more like a case of rearranging the deck chairs even after the ship has struck the iceberg.”

As political leaders, meanwhile, used their New Year messages to call for reconciliation, Alliance leader and justice minister, David Ford, summed the mood up, arguing:

“2012 must see the delivery of a strong Cohesion, Sharing and Integration strategy and Alliance will not support anything but a robust community relations strategy.

“The New Year is a time for making resolutions. All politicians here must make one solid resolution for 2012 – that they are committed to ending division in our society, and this must be done through the delivery of the strongest possible CSI strategy. We have heard much talk about a shared future. Now is the time for action.

“A united community is essential for stability and to boost our economy. It is absolutely clear that divisions in our society act as a deterrent to potential investors. What sort of message does it send out to global business leaders that we live in a society that is beset with segregation?”

See also:

• Sign up to receive our weekly summary of the news from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, The Week Outside Westminster

• Tories and UUP split over merger deal – Ed Jacobs, January 5th 2011

• Opposition parties attack Salmond’s commitment to green agenda – Ed Jacobs, January 4th 2011

• How does Northern Ireland achieve reconciliation in 2012? – Ed Jacobs, January 3rd 2011

• Preview 2012 – Northern Ireland – Ed Jacobs, December 30th 2011

• Preview 2012 – Wales – Ed Jacobs, December 29th 2011

• Preview 2012 – Scotland – Ed Jacobs, December 28th 2011

“The Welsh government’s focus can be summed up in two words: the economy.” – With these words, first minister Carwyn Jones outlined what his government’s priority would be in 2012 in an article for the Western Mail.

There is no doubt that for Wales, 2011 has been one of economic challenge. In a country disproportionately reliant on public sector employment, the 9.1% of Welsh people currently out of work looks set to increase as the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development predicts UK wide unemployment of almost 3 million by 2013. In short, as Wales enters 2012, economically there is little to cheer about.

Having announced £1.4 billion of investment for schools, a £90 million Capital Investment Programme and its Jobs Growth Fund, 2012 will be a crunch year for the Labour adminsitration, one in which “delivery” - as the first minister might himself put it – will need to be the watch word for ministers.

Whilst the decision by Welsh voters in March to provide the Assembly with full law making powers was hailed as a great trimpuh by all parties at Cardiff Bay, who all supported the move, the low turnout of just 35.4% suggests that for the Welsh people the idea of devolution has yet to capture their imagination in a way in which it has the Scots.

2012 will therefore need to be a year in which members of the Assembly must use the new found powers they have to show to Welsh voters what distincitly “made in Wales” laws mean for them and how they differ from laws being passed in Westminster.

As I outlined on Left Foot Forward following the declaration of the result in March:

“Whilst the Assembly will now get the full law making powers enjoyed by Holyrood and Stormont, the low turnout and lack of understanding over the issue should spur those at Cardiff Bay to prove why it was worth giving them the powers to legislate without needing Westminster’s permission.”

This statement remains as true today as it did then. Ministers now have a job on their hands in translating their Programme for Government into a legislative pogramme until 2016 that can excite and engage the people of Wales. As of yet, the jury is very much out on wheather or not it has happened yet.

Meanwhile, the Assembly looks set in 2012 to be a very much more political forum than in the past, and not just as a result of the added legislative powers it now finds itself enjoying.

Whilst Welsh Labour were quick in May to flag as a success their ability to govern alone from Cardiff Bay, having achieved exacly half the seats in the Assembly chamber and no more, Carwyn Jones in effect leads a minoirty government, relying on the support of other parties to get its programme through.

As the passing of the budget showed, building coalaitions is going to be at the heart of how the Assembly operates over the next year and beyond.

The decision by the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Kirsty Williams, to provide her party’s support for the budget in exchange for an albeit modest change to the education budget, coupled with her attempts to distance herself and her party away from the Tories in Westminster, is a clear attempt to develop clear yellow water between herself and London in the hope of being able to generate some good will within Labour circles in the Assembly to gain influence over policy decisions.

For her party, the question in 2012 will be wheather influence is best achieved inside or outside government as was the case for the Conservatives in Scotland under Annabel Goldie when the SNP were a minority government.

For Labour, meanwhile, a critical question will need to be asked over the next year – how sustainable is it to govern without an outwright majority, working on an issue by issue basis. Is it time to consider a coalition either formally or establishing an agreement with one of the other opposition parties? Much as Labour have declared the result in May’s elections a success, the reality is that they failed to achieve an outright majority, an issue which is likely to dog the government over the next year.

While Plaid Cymru have a year ahead in which they have to figure out how to do opposition, and more critically, establish what the point of nationalism in Wales really is.

Having found themselves booted out of coalition government following May’s elections, Plaid’s priority now is to establish itself as an independent voice and to figure out how it can effectively hold Labour to account whilst not giving the impression it has been trashing its own record whilst in government. Their ascendency and subsequent fall to earth with a bang should act as a warning to the Lib Dems now finding themselves with ministerial red boxes in London.

As the party looks to pick a new leader on March 15th, the debate that will inevitably ensue between now and then will have to concentrate on what the point of nationalism is in a country that is at best lukewarm to the idea of devolution; Plaid can only look in envy at what their nationalist partners have achieved in Scotland.

2012 could be a key year for nationalists in Wales. If they are unable to capitalise on discontent with the actions of the coalition government in Cardiff then dreams of an indepenndant or more assertive Wales will remain a dream and no more.

For Wales, 2012 looks set to be a year of challenge for all parties. Keep a close eye on Welsh secretary Cheryl Gillian, who so far has failed to provide the strong voice for Wales in Cabinet, as well as Kirsty Williams who during the budget process played her cards well – she’ll be hoping to capitalise on that to gain greater influence throughout the next year.

With the Commission on Welsh Devolution due to publsih its first report in the autumn on the financial accountability of the assembly, next year will also include ongoing argument between Cardiff and Westminster over the finances and Wales being shortchanged under the Tory-led UK government.

2012 will be the year the assembly and government will need to find its voice and roar for Wales like the red dragon which adourns its flag in much the same way Alex Salmond has come to become the voice of Scotland across much of the UK press. If it doesn’t, questions could be asked about the long term viability of Welsh devolution.

See also:

• Labour and Lib Dems work together (in Wales) – Ed Jacobs, December 7th 2011

• Parties unite in condemning closure of Swansea coastguard station – Ed Jacobs, November 23rd 2011

• Welsh Labour has big decisions to make in face of budget gridlock – Ed Jacobs, November 21st 2011

• Almost half of Welsh nurses considered leaving posts over past year – Ed Jacobs, November 1st 2011

• Hain calls for improved resourcing of mine rescue service – Ed Jacobs, October 17th 2011

Having expressed his bitter disappointment at the outcome of last week’s EU Summit, Nick Clegg can take some comfort in knowing his view is shared by much of the press and political leaders from across the devolved nations, of which there is clear unanimity – that the prime minister utterly failed to represent the national interest.

David Cameron’s actions were bad for the UK, made for all the wrong reasons, a message likely to echo from the Lib Dems and opposition parties alike as he reports back to the Commons later today.

In Northern Ireland, the Belfast Telegraph has sought to highlight the harm to Tory leader’s Europhobic antics in Brussels will have on its ability to strengthen its exports market.

In an editorial, the paper explained:

This has been a lonely time for Cameron who was virtually in a no-win position in Brussels this week. In possibly his worst hour since he became prime minister, he was hedged in by his right-wing Conservative euro-sceptics.

On the other hand he was desperately keen to protect Britain’s lucrative financial sector from yet further European regulation. In the end the new European initiative proved a step too far, and the fall-out from such a decision will take some time to evaluate properly.

Mr Cameron has sent out a clear message that this country is effectively detached from the European economy. Major decisions will be made without us, and that will be bad for UK business, particularly in Northern Ireland where we must develop a more export-dominated mix for our economy.

For the SDLP, meanwhile, former leader Margaret Ritchie MP MLA argued Cameron has sought to put the interests of his “Eurosceptic mob in his own party” before the needs of Northern Ireland.

In declaring the SDLP as “proud supporters of the EU”, Ritchie concluded:

“With the prime minister once more kowtowing to the interests of the financial services industry which precipitated the current crisis, rather than listening to the needs of his people, we must ask whether the citizens of the North of Ireland can trust him to protect their interests at this precarious time.”

Over in Scotland, the Sunday Herald declared Friday’s developments a “worrying moment” for Britain.

Its editorial said:

The veto may have appealed to eurosceptic Tory backbenchers, but to anyone concerned for Britain’s economic future, and for the political stability of Europe, this is a worrying moment.

Half of Britain’s exports are sold to Europe, and this country has benefited greatly from the single market. The EU has been a major force for peace, uniting the sometimes fractious and defensive nations of Eastern Europe, the Baltics and shortly even the Balkans.

The PM would do well to consider how the European and American press have viewed his declaration of independence. Britain is seen to have opted for isolation - a vainglorious nation, with an anachronistic sense of its own importance, acting in pique because it didn’t get its way.

While The Scotsman, though perhaps not quite as condemnatory in its language, cautioned against any sense of vitriol within the Conservative rank and file, using its editorial over the weekend to declare:

Mr Cameron’s decision will undoubtedly have very serious implications for the UK.

It is clear 26 members of the EU, including those outside the currency zone, are intent on pressing ahead with the German plans. The obvious danger is the UK will not be consulted on the potentially serious implications for this country.

Further, if the UK is ignored on this, it might be ignored on other major decisions, even in areas where it has a right to be at the heart of decision-making, for example on the single market. It is clear there has been a sea-change in British-EU relations, forced on a reluctant prime minister who is not himself an extreme Eurosceptic.

Mr Cameron’s task now is to ensure that his decision does not result in Britain being marginalised from the EU bloc with which, whatever our differences, we have vital trade and political links.

And the Daily Record sought to highlight both the UK and Scottish jobs that depended on the country engaging fully with the EU; dubbing David’s Cameron’s actions as shameful, the paper explained:

David Cameron shamefully exiled Britain from mainstream Europe as he put the demands of 80 backbench MPs and City gamblers ahead of the interests of this country’s 62 million citizens, including 3.5million whose jobs rely on trade with the EU.

The powerful band of Tory Eurosceptics and their allies, including London mayor Boris Johnson, may think they have triumphed in removing us from top table talks but they have not. And Scotland has much to lose if the euro crisis deepens.

An estimated £9.6billion of all Scottish exports are destined for the EU – around half. Our manufacturing industries and whisky producers depend on the Netherlands, France, Germany, France, Spain, Ireland and Belgium.

You don’t need to be a Nobel Prize-winning economist to see what would happen if these eurozone countries reached meltdown. They’d take us with them too, including countless jobs, leaving families unable to pay their mortgages, rents and bills.

Over in Wales, meanwhile, following the declaration by Lib Dem MP for Cardiff Central, Jenny Willott, on Radio Wales’s “Sunday Supplement” programme that the actions of David Cameron were “disappointing” and Plaid Cymru’s attack on the prime minister for putting his political interests before those of Wales, the former Labour first minister, Rhodri Morgan, argued Cameron’s reasons for using the veto last week were all wrong.

In his regular column for Wales Online, Morgan writes:

“David Cameron will, without question, pick up popularity among his increasingly Eurosceptic backbenchers. Many of them, in turn have to face their own party membership in selection conferences, when their constituency boundaries are redrawn.

“I’m the most Eurosceptic candidate before you tonight” will be the battlecry that will win the tight contests. That’s not the best basis for deciding on Britain’s future relationship with our main export markets.

“For Wales I always used to start from “What’s best for Airbus?”, not “What’s best for the City”; Airbus is as important for Wales as the City is for London and the Home Counties.

“You could widen that to what’s best for Tata Steel and other big employers in Wales, not forgetting what’s best for the maximum flow of European Structural Funds into Wales. That’s our “national interest”.”

See also:

• How Cameron traded influence for isolation – Ben Fox, December 12th 2011

• Look Left – Europe 26-1 Cameron: Britain isolated like never before – Shamik Das, December 9th 2011

• The view from abroad: The day Britain locked itself out – Alex Hern, December 9th 2011

• Cameron didn’t sign EU deal because it’s not in the interests of the one per cent – Shamik Das, December 9th 2011

• Farage should check his own funds before accusing others of being in it for the money – Alex Hern, October 24th 2011

Across Cardiff Bay, sighs of relief are likely to have been heard echoing around the halls of the Assembly as Welsh Labour finally saw a budget passed yesterday.

After what was to say the least a testing process, Carwyn Jones will have felt a palpable sense of relief and perhaps vindication that his government has been able to pass a budget without as much tinkering as a minority administration might have expected from the opposition. All this was made possible as a result of the support of Lib Dem AMs.

Outlining the extent to which the government compromised to see its budget passed, following the vote in the Senedd, finance minister Jane Hutt explained:

“Over recent weeks we have worked with opposition parties to see how we can improve our budget proposals and we secured an agreement around our plans with the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

“I was pleased to be able to include in the final budget a new grant – the pupil deprivation grant – which will direct support to children that need it most. With the additional £20 million, we will be able to provide schools with £450 per child eligible for free school meals and I am pleased that 70,000 children across Wales will benefit as a result of this policy.

“The budget that has been agreed today provides stability and opportunity for growth and jobs. This is what the people of Wales expect and deserve and this is what we have delivered.”

For the Liberal Democrats meanwhile, their leader in Wales, Kirsty Williams, was clear in her pleasure at the budget passed, declaring her party’s pride at having been able to secure it’s manifesto commitment to an effective pupil premium.

Yet, despite the co-operation, it is unlikely that either Labour or the Lib Dems will be in the business of wanting to do any further, longer term, deals. As BBC Wales’ Welsh affairs editor, Vaughn Roderick, explains:

“This is an austerity budget. The amount of money Wales has to spend is considerably reduced because of what’s happening at a UK level. What the government has tried to do is to defend services across the board rather than to ring-fence services.

“So Welsh councils, who deliver things like education and social services, will do a bit better than councils in England are doing comparatively. But the Welsh health service, on the other hand won’t do as well.

“What the Welsh government is trying to do is share the pain around rather than inflict maximum pain on particular areas.

“From the point of view of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, nothing is more important than next May’s elections. The reason for that is simply this: the Liberal Democrats are incredibly dependant on their local government base. If they lose a lot of council seats, the Welsh Lib Dems will be in deep trouble for the long term so Labour are going to do nothing to try and help Lib Dems try to save seats.

“The Lib Dems on the other hand, the reason they wanted this deal is because it puts distance between them and the coalition in London. Having had to make a deal over the budget, Labour wants to do no more favours for the Liberal Democrats.”

See also:

• Parties across the nations split over response to strike action – Ed Jacobs, December 2nd 2011

• Will Wales get tax varying powers? – Ed Jacobs, October 11th 2011

• Wales to see increase in health spending as Lansley accused of dismantling NHS – Ed Jacobs, October 5th 2011

• Cuts threaten to “destroy BBC Wales” claim NUJ – Ed Jacobs, September 7th 2011

• Plaid Cymru claim independent Wales could be 39% richer – Ed Jacobs, August 2nd 2011

As the Chancellor prepares to deliver his Autumn Statement against a background of dire economic figures and forecasts, the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist, Gary Gillespie has warned that the Scottish economy faces period of uncertainty and volatility.

While rates of unemployment north of the border have remained below the UK average and the Fraser of Allander Institute has  predicted albeit slight growth of 0.4% this year across Scotland, Gillespie’s regular State of the Economy reports outlines a picture of considerable uncertainty and volatility facing the country.

The report highlights:

• The escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis, coupled with the general slowdown in trade and investment in many of the world’s key economies, has made the global recovery even more fragile than it was just six months ago.
• Over the last year, the UK economy has grown by much less than the rate of recovery normally expected in the aftermath of a deep recession.
• While the Scottish economy continues to recover, like almost all other advanced economies, the pace of growth remains fragile.
• As a small open economy, the strength of the Scottish recovery will depend critically on the pick-up in the global economy and our ability to increase our share of international investment and trade.

Speaking on the eve of the Chancellor’s statement, the report promoted Finance Secretary, John Swinney, who earlier in the day had argued that the UK Government was relishing the prospect of a confrontation with the trades unions, to warn George Osborne:

“This report is yet another stark warning to the Chancellor. There is no doubt that UK economic growth will remain uncertain for the foreseeable future, as the economy continues its fragile recovery.

“While the Scottish labour market continues to outperform the UK as a whole – with lower unemployment, higher employment, and lower economic inactivity rates – we must ensure that growth is sustained.

“The improvement in the Scottish labour market over the past year has been encouraging – and we are taking action on youth unemployment and skills – but the report notes that further improvements will depend on the ability to boost output and generate new demand and employment opportunities.

“The Chancellor must heed the warnings and use his Autumn Statement to take urgent action to stimulate the economy and boost growth, improve access to finance and enhance economic security.”

Meanwhile, as Osborne prepares to formally announce what he will be hoping is a stimulus package that will kick start the British economy back into life, the Welsh Government has itself  unveiled an economic stimulus package worth close to £40 million, financed by the Barnett consequences from Whitehall’s decision to freeze the council tax in England.  Forming part of Labour’s budget deal with the Lib Dems at Cardiff Bay, measures include:

• £4.9m over the next two years to support employers who run “high-quality” apprenticeship programmes, with a view to creating 1,800 new apprentices
• £3m into Skills Growth Wales, an offshoot of the ProAct scheme which will provide support to companies which plan to expand their workforce.
• £9.26m for capital maintenance in schools.
• £6m into a housing project in Ely Mill, Cardiff, creating 200 jobs building affordable and market housing.
• £3m investment in the Arbed scheme, improving energy efficiency in home in the most deprived communities across Wales.
• £9.26m to  be spent on levering in private finance, building an additional 130 affordable homes Wales-wide.
• £3.5m invested into road improvements in the planned new enterprise zones.

In publishing the package of measures, Finance Minister, Jane Hutt explained:

“Taken together, these proposals represent a comprehensive stimulus package which supports the skills and apprenticeship agenda and have formed part of the Budget agreement with the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

“On the November 16, the Minister for Business, Enterprise, Technology and Science [Edwina Hart] announced £55m of new investment in Welsh SMEs this year to support business growth. Last week, I announced an additional £87m of capital investment over the next two years across Wales.

“This package builds on those actions to boost the economy and develop public services, generating immediate benefits for our economy while complementing our long term aims.”

For Plaid Cymru, the party’s Treasury spokesman, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP Jonathan Edwards has supported calls for greater capital investment, declaring ahead of the Chancellor’s statement:

“What is now needed most is a major counter-cyclical investment in capital projects which will provide jobs in the construction industry, which employs 100,000 people in Wales, and in the longer term improve the competitiveness of the UK. With UK borrowing costs at their lowest ever level, around 2.2%, now is an excellent time to prudently invest and enhance our economic capacity.”

In her blog meanwhile, BBC Wales’ Political Editor, Bestan Powys, reflecting on the stimulus package spun all weekend by the Government says of the First Minister:

“Carwyn Jones will welcome the money but inevitably remind the UK government that it’s giving back with one hand a little bit of the far bigger sum it’s already taken with the other.

“The emphasis might be switching from day-to-day spending to spending on big capital projects now (giving someone in Edinburgh a few good lines for his next FMQs) but prepare for reminders in Cardiff Bay that it was the Welsh capital budget that took the heaviest blow of all.”

It’s time the Chancellor took note and implements a stimulus package that really works. Without it, all the nations of the UK will remain in intensive care.

See also:

• Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast at panic stations as Westminster enters crunch week – Ed Jacobs, November 28th 2011

• Miliband attacks Osborne’s “dangerous gamble” and “catastrophic mistakes” on economy – Shamik Das, November 24th 2011

• OECD: The economic indications are not good for Gideon – Alex Hern, November 15th 2011

• Osborne’s cuts having “damaging effect” on Northern Ireland peace process –Kevin Meagher, November 10th 2011

• Devolved nations call on Whitehall to create jobs – Ed Jacobs, October 12th 2011